Trump now backs Putin in the war

Summary

Vlad Vexler argues that Trump’s increasingly pro-Kremlin conduct is not a new pivot toward Putin, but a more open expression of a longstanding preference. He points to developments including limits on Ukraine’s access to satellite information, a diesel deal with Russia, a proposal to unfreeze Russian sovereign funds, reports that intelligence is being withheld from Ukraine, and Trump’s calls for Zelensky to be removed.

Explanations Vexler rejects

Vexler answers no to two possible explanations: that Putin is blackmailing Trump, or that Trump is seeking Russian help with election interference in the midterms. He says the Kremlin does not appear to hold hidden leverage over Trump. Instead, he attributes their affinity to shared authoritarian outlooks and Trump’s desire for Putin’s approval.

Vexler also doubts that Trump takes Russian election interference seriously or that Putin would directly offer such assistance.

Concerns Vexler affirms

Vexler answers yes to seven broader concerns:

• Trump is using Zelensky as a scapegoat for his own political failures, including difficulties connected to the war in Iran.
• Attacks on Ukraine could intensify and extend to Europe and Canada.
• Trump wants Putin to succeed not only as a means of advancing his own interests, but also as an objective in itself.
• Observers should not assume Trump’s destructiveness has peaked; Vexler warns that the remainder of Trump’s term could bring further damage.
• Trump values the image and announcement of the diesel deal with Russia more than its practical consequences. Vexler describes it as aimless action later wrapped in a post-truth narrative.
• Trump sees a possible U.S.–Russia alliance in transactional terms, including lucrative opportunities for his circle, rather than primarily through national strategic interests.
• Trump has become more convinced that doing business with Russia is advantageous, a belief Vexler says has been reinforced by his frustration over Iran.

Europe’s response

Vexler criticizes European leaders for remaining passive and in denial about the possibility of a widening split between the United States and Europe. He suggests Europe consider more assertive steps, such as rejecting negotiations over the war conducted between Russia and the United States without Ukraine.

Presenter/contributor: Vlad Vexler.