"We Are At The END GAME..." - Jiang Xueqin

Jiang Xueqin’s Argument About U.S. Strategy

Jiang Xueqin argues that U.S. policy may be pursuing a strategy of confronting Iran before China. He links this approach to “strategic continuity,” associated with Elbridge Colby: weakening Iran could limit China’s access to Middle Eastern energy and allow the United States to focus on China later. He also describes a broader effort to influence global energy flows by controlling maritime chokepoints.

Jiang challenges the idea that this is a coherent plan to preserve U.S. dominance, raising three main objections:

• Trade may sustain influence better than war. He argues that bringing countries such as Iran into the global trading system would extend U.S. influence at less cost than attacking or isolating them. He cites the Iran nuclear deal as an example.
• The strategy may underestimate Iran and overestimate U.S. power. In his view, expectations that killing Iran’s leadership would cause the regime to collapse or surrender proved mistaken. He also argues that Iran’s actions against shipping and Gulf energy infrastructure were not adequately anticipated.
• Controlling energy supplies could carry a severe economic cost. He argues that disruption to Gulf oil exports could harm Japan and Gulf economies, reduce their investment in U.S. Treasury bonds, and intensify pressure on the U.S. economy. He also points to risks in the U.S. private-credit and AI sectors. Layoffs and lower incomes, he warns, could reduce energy consumption—a process he calls “demand destruction.”

Jiang interprets these costs as evidence that the war may accelerate, rather than prevent, U.S. imperial decline.

The “Clean Break” Memorandum

The discussion also turns to the 1996 “Clean Break” memorandum, which Jiang says advocated a more confrontational regional policy. He describes its aims as transforming Israel’s economy, pursuing regime change and a balance of power across the Middle East, and rejecting compromise on the Palestinian issue in favor of force.

Jiang argues that elements of this approach continued across U.S. administrations. He cites the Iraq War and later interventions, as well as General Wesley Clark’s reported account of plans to change governments in several countries. In this view, the current conflict with Iran is part of a longer pattern, rather than simply a decision made on Donald Trump’s whim.

Presenter/contributor: Jiang Xueqin.