Banks Will Need Bailouts Like 2008! Bubba Horwitz on the New Loan Scam + Gold $6,000

Finance-Focused Summary (Markets, Investing, Macro, Risk)

Housing / Banks Risk: “Housing crash 2.0”

• Todd “Bubba” Horwitz argues the U.S. is headed toward another housing stress cycle driven by lending practices that move inventory and pass credit risk onward—similar to 2008.
• He points to aggressive financing promotions such as:
  • “0% down”
  • “no-doc loans” / stated income arrangements (in many locations)
• His link to broader risk:
  • Rising consumer distress and layoffs are pressuring affordability.
  • Even if interest rates fluctuate, he warns mortgage affordability is deteriorating.

Consumer Credit Deterioration (Defaults / Delinquencies)

Horwitz highlights specific stress figures:

• 15% of people 90+ days past due on credit cards
• 8% defaulting on homes
• 7% defaulting on car loans

He also argues unemployment is understated and suggests true unemployment is around 12–13%, citing alternative measures such as U6.

---

Macro / Rates View Driving Gold

Fed hiking rates (and why it matters)

• He asserts the Fed will hike rates, framing it as a way to correct policy mistakes.
• A specific spread argument is used to explain potential benefits to banks:
  • 10-year notes up ~150 bps
  • Fed funds down ~100 bps
  • Net effect: banks benefit via the spread
• Yield expectation:
  • He expects the 10-year yield to rise to “north of 6%” “maybe this year.”

Gold timing call

• Despite rate-hike concerns, he believes the gold selloff already priced in:
  • higher rates
  • overextension
• He expects gold to rally after the Fed signals/announces hikes, estimating the timing around September.

---

Gold / Silver / Platinum Levels & Trading Framework (Physical Accumulation)

Support and near-term levels (as stated)

• Gold: support near $4,000
  • Strategy: “hold” near $4,000, then expect a “solid rally”
• Silver: around $55
• Platinum: around $1,600

Stepwise gold targets

• Targets (stepwise):
  • $4,600
  • then $5,000
  • potential retest of prior highs
• Bold long-range call:
  • $6,000 (he suggests it may be tougher, but not impossible)

Recommendation (positioning)

• “I would be a buyer here and continue to accumulate” (physical gold)

---

AI Trade Rotation / Equity Risk (Earnings + Power / Inflation)

Expected AI equity weakness

• Horwitz expects a meltdown in many AI-related stocks, arguing valuations and positioning are vulnerable.
• Examples of drawdowns from highs:
  • Micron down ~30%
  • Palantir down ~40%
  • Nvidia “not down quite as much yet,” but broader weakness is expected
  • smaller AI names (“little babies”) reportedly down 50–60%
• Timing rationale:
  • He expects this to appear in “the next couple of weeks” due to earnings reflecting AI capex/spending.

Inflationary mechanism (energy / power)

• He frames AI as inflationary via increased energy/power demand:
  • “AI uses a hundred times more power” than Bitcoin (as claimed)
• The macro implication:
  • higher electricity costs pressure consumers
  • contributes to the need for higher Fed rates

---

Oil / Commodities: Supply-Demand Grievance

• He claims there is a glut of oil (U.S. and Canada) and suggests oil prices are too high versus supply fundamentals.
• He downplays geopolitical effects (e.g., Iran for WTI).
• He expects continued weakness/pressure:
  • oil companies already reported record earnings
  • he anticipates more in the “next couple weeks” (no specific prices given)

---

Risk Framing / “Capitalism Reset” Stance

“America’s over” if there’s a full “financial reset.”

• Instead of a reset, he expects policymakers to work through issues, hoping for leadership that forces fiscal discipline (“a grown-up in the room”).
• Core philosophy:
  • Let assets and failures resolve.
  • “Nobody should be too big to fail when it comes down to money”
  • He contrasts depositor bailouts vs bank bailouts.

---

Methodologies / Frameworks Mentioned

Gold trade framework (levels + catalysts)

• Identify a support/base after a parabolic decline (gold found $4,000… base formed).
• Assume the selloff occurred because:
  • markets priced higher rates
  • positioning became overextended
• Catalyst timing:
  • renewed rally after Fed rate-hike announcement (targeting September)
• Scaling targets:
  • $4,600 → $5,000 → prior highs
  • longer-term aspiration: $6,000

Housing crash warning framework (behavioral / lending signals)

• Use lending term behavior as a leading indicator:
  • “0% down”
  • no-doc / stated income
• Pair with:
  • credit delinquency/default stats
  • unemployment concerns

AI equity risk framework (earnings + real-economy constraints)

• Expect near-term volatility because upcoming earnings will reflect AI spending.
• Treat power demand as a macro headwind that supports higher rates.

---

Key Numbers / Explicit Metrics

Precious metals

• Gold: support ~$4,000; targets $4,600, $5,000, then prior highs; bullish call $6,000
• Silver: ~$55
• Platinum: ~$1,600

Fed / rates

• Rate hikes expected in September
• 10-year yield: expected > 6%
• 10-year notes: up ~150 bps
• Fed funds: down ~100 bps

Credit / housing distress

• 15% credit cards: 90+ days past due
• 8% homes: defaulting
• 7% car loans: defaulting
• Unemployment claimed ~12–13% (alternative measure framing)

AI drawdowns (from highs)

• Micron -30%
• Palantir -40%
• Many AI names reportedly down 50–60% (with Nvidia less down so far)

Energy / oil claims (no exact prices given)

• Consumers bear higher energy costs
• Oil companies at “record earnings”

Housing affordability anecdote

• A mortgage deal mentioned:
  • 2.5% first year
  • 3.5% second year
  • locked at 4.5% for life
  • timing noted as “a year ago” in the conversation

---

Tickers / Instruments / Assets Mentioned

Assets

• Gold (physical)
• Silver
• Platinum

Rates / macro instruments

• U.S. Treasury / rates: 10-year notes, Fed funds rate
• CD (certificate of deposit) used as a borrowing-cost comparison
• U6 (unemployment measure)

Companies / equities mentioned

• Goldman Sachs (referenced for a bullish gold note; ticker not provided)
• Micron
• Palantir
• Nvidia
• SpaceX (mentioned as a market example; not an AI stock)
• Peter Bookvar referenced in the AI rotation discussion
• ITM Trading mentioned (Horwitz’s colleagues represent)

Commodities

• WTI oil
• Copper

---

Explicit Recommendations / Cautions

Recommendation

• Accumulate physical gold (and physical silver).

Cautions (implied)

• Housing and consumer conditions show massive warning signs.
• AI equities face risk of a massive meltdown, tied to near-term earnings.

---

Disclosures / Disclaimers

• None stated explicitly in the provided subtitles (no “not financial advice” language included).

---

Presenters / Sources Mentioned

• Daniela Cambone (host)
• Todd “Bubba” Horwitz (guest; floor trader, former SPX market maker; associated with ITM Trading)
• Goldman Sachs (referenced as issuing a bullish gold note)
• Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, Jerome Powell, Warsh (mentioned in Fed context)
• Peter Bookvar (referenced regarding AI trade and rotation argument)
• ITM Trading (firm referenced; offering “free strategy session”)