Bitcoin Bearish Setup: Is Another Drop Ahead?

Summary

The presenter views Bitcoin as bearish and at risk of another decline, citing lower highs and a setup he considers similar to a pattern from 2023. He says a drop could occur that night or the following day, relative to the recording on October 16, but stresses that the historical resemblance does not guarantee the same outcome.

He says he recently entered a Bitcoin short position. His stated plan is to hold it until the price approaches the SuperTrend, then exit before or as the price breaks above it. He does not provide a price target or a specific stop level.

He compares the current setup with a 2023 Bitcoin pattern, arguing that both show a similar five-wave structure and an apparent attempt to break upward that could fail. He says the charts look very similar but acknowledges that he could be wrong.

Technical-Analysis Framework

Elliott Wave Structure

A bullish cycle is described as five waves: waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulsive and upward, while waves 2 and 4 are corrective.

Kernel Indicator

The presenter uses the kernel as a smoothed trend guide:

• Strong upward movement tends to remain green and travel along the kernel.
• Corrective phases tend to oscillate around or shift across it.
• He uses a weekly chart to illustrate the broader wave structure.

SuperTrend Confirmation

He adds the SuperTrend as a second indicator:

• Waves 2 and 4 are associated with a blue or oscillating SuperTrend.
• Impulsive bullish waves are associated with a green, upward-moving SuperTrend.

Short-Term Comparison

On the 12-hour timeframe, he says Bitcoin is interacting with the kernel, making lower highs, and showing resistance. He treats the SuperTrend as the main reference and the kernel as a secondary “line of defense.”

Historical-Pattern Approach

He compares the current chart with the 2023 example and uses the resemblance to anticipate a possible repeat, while noting that technical patterns are not certain.

Assets, Instruments, and Other References

• Bitcoin (BTC): The primary asset discussed; the presenter discloses a short position.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Mentioned as another market that, in his view, displays similar Elliott-wave behavior.
• Indicators: Kernel and SuperTrend. No ETF, bond, commodity, or alternative cryptocurrency is discussed.

Key Numbers, Timing, and Cautions

• The presenter says he has spent 11 years in crypto and experienced four major bull markets and three major bear markets.
• He points to a five-wave Elliott structure, compares it with 2023, and focuses on a 12-hour chart for the current setup.
• He expects a possible move lower that night or the following day, but gives no specific price level, percentage decline, or probability.
• He says the setup could fail and that the historical comparison does not guarantee a crash. He does not give an explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer.

Presenter and Source

Philakone, speaking on the Philakone YouTube channel. He also directs viewers to his X account, Instagram, and private trading and education Discord.