Video summary

Pytania do Longterma 2.4: Allegro, Creotech, Scanway, Nvidia, OML, Microsoft

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Finance-focused summary of the subtitles

Market / macro commentary

  • Oil falling is framed as relief for the economy, especially for German exporters and broader industry.
  • Potential supportive macro factors mentioned:
    • End of the war in the Middle East
    • Opening of the Straits of Ormus (Hormuz) (positive for energy/logistics conditions)
  • Interest-rate uncertainty is highlighted as a key risk for the Polish real estate/development sector:
    • Not a “crash,” but momentum may be limited.
  • Inflation/price pressure note:
    • Even with falling commodities, large tech firms (examples implied in the episode) are raising prices, suggesting inflation pressure is not only commodity-driven.

Company / sector ideas & technical signals (with key cautions)

The presenter repeatedly emphasizes that fundamentals come first, but technical analysis can warn ahead of fundamentals.

One More Level (WSE, gaming e-commerce)

  • Technical
    • After a rally tied to “Valor Mortis,” the price fell sharply
    • It broke the 45-week average
  • Interpretation
    • Oversold, but also a warning—especially if the breakdown happens during a bull market
  • Business / pipeline context
    • Described as the largest digital game distribution portal, with ranking ~61st
    • Release timeline discussed: October 13 (risk of postponement)
  • Valuation
    • 173 million cited (as a WSE listing/price metric)
  • Recommendation tone
    • Watch for postponements
    • Potential improvement in wishlist ranking ahead of Gamescom in August

Microsoft (US, skeptical stance)

  • Technical
    • Skeptical framing: “double bottom” risk being negated (bearish invalidation)
  • Key level
    • Low / support around ~341.4 (described as a “previous hole” that must hold)
  • Conclusion
    • Not ruling out a rebound, but the setup is described as dangerous
  • Additional context
    • Discussion includes Bill Ackman buying a large block; presenter remains cautious

Nvidia vs Broadcom (US semiconductors)

  • Both called “overhyped”
  • Presenter says he would invest in neither right now
  • Expects a temporary correction (very careful positioning)
  • Nvidia preference (only if forced)
    • Notes Wall Street is defending the rate and views it as relatively stronger
  • Technical caution mechanics
    • If the “45” level breaks, risk of deeper correction rises (explicit for Nvidia and analogously for Broadcom)

Broadcom (US)

  • Similar caution:
    • Concern about a false breakout (peak not maintained)
  • Key technical reference
    • The “45” level is called out as critical

Allegro (IPO debut; Polish e-commerce/marketplace)

  • Macro/policy catalyst: EU parcel tariff changes
    • EU abolishes de minimis exemption for parcels up to €150
    • Introduces a flat-rate duty of €3 on qualifying parcels
  • Estimated impact on Allegro
    • Expected to add about +1 percentage point of GMV
    • Additional revenue impact estimated at “several dozen or even several hundred million PLN per year”
    • Not expected to be a “mega game changer” (not a “hard tariff” scenario)
  • Growth/revenue forecast context
    • Allegro forecasting +11–14% revenue growth (as discussed in relation to impact size)
  • Technical stance
    • Looks “very nice” recently, but:
    • A correction is mentioned around the recording date (June 26) after reaching an upper band
  • ABB package context
    • ABB is referenced in the episode (see sector/policy details section below)

Development / real estate builders on WSE (sector outlook)

  • Sector view: neutral overall
    • No major bear market expected, but:
    • Prices stagnated in Warsaw and fell YoY in Q1 for the first time in a decade
    • Hard for developers to be bull-market leaders in coming months/year
  • Positive examples
    • Atal and Archicom characterized as “solid”
    • Emphasis on choosing developers with good locations and high margins
  • Offsetting factors
    • Infrastructure spending / EU funds / rebuilding cycles
  • Key risk
    • Interest rates, and whether inflation persists despite raw-material declines

Kruk / other debt-related mention

  • A question is posed about a platform for investing over PLN 500,000
  • Kruk is mentioned, but the subtitles don’t include deep valuation content

Cresotech / Scanway / other space names (growth capital raises + technical follow-through)

Scanway
  • Expected behavior after a technical trigger
    • After breaking the 15-week average, price may “soft land” near ~260, 200, 255 (range given)
    • Targets linked to the 45-week average level
  • Capital raise
    • Mentions a large issue for 7.5% of shares
  • Stated consequence
    • Price likely cools due to dilution/secondary supply
Creotech Quantum (appears garbled; “Kreotech / Creotech”)
  • Fundraise
    • Raised PLN 480 million
    • Target cited: €100 million, with oversubscription
    • “Almost half from abroad” (international investor participation)
  • Technical
    • Mentions slowdown around the 15-week average
    • Expectation: stabilization/rebound from that average
Space sector / ESA link
  • Claim: Polish space companies are cheaply valued versus global counterparts
  • Polish ISA value cited: > €10 billion
  • Market cap framing examples:
    • Kreotech Instruments around PLN 2.5–3 billion
    • Scanway described as “much cheaper than Western counterparts”
  • ESA contribution
    • Claims ESA contribution increased very significantly to €550.6–600 million by 2028
  • ESA beneficiaries
    • “Not many beneficiaries other than” the two listed on the exchange, plus Liftero
  • Corporate action expectation
    • Liftero likely to be subsumed under other entities
    • Largest share expected by Kreotech Instruments, with Scanway getting “a lot” of it

Boryszew (Polish conglomerate)

  • Technical
    • Severe correction since Oct last year; now rebuilding
    • Broke the 15-week mark; continued rebuilding possible if trend holds
  • Macro/sector tailwind
    • EU funds, infrastructure reconstruction, and improved German industrial conditions
  • Risk framing
    • Presenter: optimistic but observing

Spyrosoft (fundamentals + AI labor-market demand)

  • Theme: exposed to the AI revolution effects
  • Risk/mitigation argument:
    • Humans remain crucial for final decisions (example: radiology workflows)
    • Expects demand for IT specialists, and Spyrosoft will “cope”
  • Signals
    • Mentions recent improvements in results (no numbers provided)

Brookfield Corp (quick technical read)

  • Technical
    • “Constant upward trend” with higher highs/lows
  • Consolidation noted:
    • Previously “dangerous” in March due to war impact, then rebound followed
  • Expectation:
    • Possible trend continuation, defending at least the 15-week timeframe

“Creepy Jar” (dividend framing; name garbled)

  • Subtitles garbled, but logic is consistent:
    • Liquid assets > 100 million
    • Dividend yield cited as over 8%
    • Pricing basis around ~512 to support ~8% yield
  • Timeline:
    • “In September dividend over 8%”
  • Scale cited:
    • 150 million devices in a year; Rockstar/GTA 6 console dominance referenced (as context)
  • Recommendation tone
    • Dividend investors: favors it as a predictable dividend payer
    • Growth investors: caution due to worse gaming sentiment
  • Yield sensitivity:
    • If price falls further, yield could move above 10%

Portfolio / investing process & methodology (frameworks)

Technical-analysis framework (explicit indicators/levels)

  • Uses moving averages:
    • SMA 15 weeks
    • SMA 45 weeks (“system of my averages”)
  • Also references:
    • Support / resistance
    • MACD
    • RSI (overbought/oversold)
  • Interpretation principle:
    • Longer consolidations can imply stronger upward movements on breakout

Fundamental-analysis checklist (explicit metrics)

  • Fundamentals first
    • Focus on company finances and development prospects
  • Core profitability/quality metrics:
    • ROE (“Buffett’s favorite”)
    • ROIC / ROIK (named as key)
    • ROA (broader view, based on assets)
  • Valuation metric:
    • P/B (CWK) — price to book (how much investors pay per 1 PLN of assets)
  • Cash/debt classification caution:
    • Cash may be hidden in the balance sheet depending on classification:
      • Deposits up to 3 months = cash
      • 3 months–1 year = short-term investments
      • > 1 year = long-term investments
    • Example: CD Projekt cash pile described as “over a billion in cash/financial resources,” potentially not shown as a single “cash” line item
  • Valuation approach:
    • Mentions DCF (modified): conservative and growth-case targets
    • Maintains two valuations for “Top picks” (Top 15 ranking mentioned)
  • Dividend investing approach:
    • Dividend vs growth depends on sentiment
    • A credible dividend policy and predictable yield can be attractive if price dips

Key numbers, levels, and timelines (consolidated)

  • One More Level
    • Valuation: 173 million
    • Release date: Oct 13 (postponement risk)
    • Technical: breaks 45-week average; discussed as oversold + warning
    • Rank/wishlist: 61st place
    • Events: Gamescom in August
  • DAX technical
    • Expanding triangle concept; targets an “upper band”
    • Context date: June 26 (before noon)
  • Microsoft
    • Critical low/support: 341.4
    • Risk: double bottom invalidation if broken
  • Nvidia / Broadcom
    • Critical reference: “45” level
  • Allegro
    • EU change:
      • Remove de minimis for parcels up to €150
      • Flat duty €3
    • Parcel volume: 5.9 billion parcels expected in 2025, >90% from China
    • Impact estimate:
      • +1 pp GMV
      • several dozen to several hundred million PLN/year revenue
    • Growth forecast referenced: +11–14%
  • Space / ESA
    • ESA contribution by 2028: €550.6–600 million
  • Creotech
    • Raise: PLN 480 million
    • Target: €100 million
  • Dividend example (“Creepy Jar”)
    • Liquid assets: >100 million
    • Price basis: ~512
    • Dividend yield: ~8%+, timing September
    • Potential yield upside: >10% if price falls
  • Scanway / Kreotech dilution mechanics
    • Scanway issue size: 7.5% of shares (dilution/secondary supply)

Disclosures / recommendations / cautions

  • No explicit “financial advice” disclaimer is clearly shown in the subtitles, but the presenter frames views as analysis-based and warns against overhype and rushing.
  • Strong caution:
    • Nvidia/Broadcom: described as overhyped; “wait for correction”
  • Emphasizes not assuming insiders/management are right and warns against selling too quickly based purely on market timing.

Tickers / instruments / entities mentioned

Indices / macro

  • DAX

Stocks / companies

  • Allegro
  • CD Projekt
  • KGHM (briefly)
  • Digital Network (earlier mention)
  • CPem (garbled; likely WSE company—exact ticker unclear)
  • Kruk
  • PZU
  • Wolak (garbled; earlier mention)
  • MLP Group (question posed)
  • Atal
  • Archicom
  • Microsoft
  • Nvidia
  • Broadcom
  • Spyrosoft
  • Brookfield Corp
  • Scanway
  • Creotech / Creotech Quantum
  • Liftero
  • Boryszew
  • One More Level (gaming; mentioned as “ML”)
  • Orlen (technical context)
  • Mentions also include Electrium (personal experience, not presented as a recommendation)
  • Garbled insider examples: Synek / Synex / Ele Bit (exact tickers unclear)
  • “Creepy Jar” (dividend stock name garbled, but described as a dividend-paying gaming-related company)

Instruments / concepts

  • ETFs and shares
  • Treasury bonds (general: 2-year/3-year, and possibly <1-year bills)
  • ESA / European Space Agency funding contribution figures

Presenters / sources mentioned

  • Albert Longterm Rokicki (host/presenter; “Longterm”)
  • XTB (episode partner/broker mentioned for account opening and optimization)
  • Bill Ackman (named in relation to Microsoft block purchase)
  • Tools/services listed (as information sources):
    • Grok / ChatGPT / Google / Bloomberg / TradingView / Stockwatch / Stockwatch.pl / Stooq/Stuk.pl / Tap
  • ESA (for contribution figures)
  • Other named entities used in context:
    • Lyrical Games, Take-Two Interactive, Rockstar (GTA 6/publishing context)
  • No explicit mention of Tencent in the subtitles.

Original video