The UNTHINKABLE is about to happen to GOLD (& Why Cuba Is Next After Iran)

Main thesis

The presenter argues that gold has entered a major institutional-driven breakout (described as a “heartbeat” technical pattern) and that historical oil supply shocks tend to trigger large gold rallies. He warns retail investors are being misled by social media and news, and recommends following chart-based money flows and using explicit selling/capital-protection rules.

He also suggests that Iran-related disruption may be only the beginning, and that following oil flows could reveal other geopolitical flashpoints (he names Cuba as a possible next domino because of Venezuelan oil ties).

Assets, tickers and instruments mentioned

• Precious metals
  • Gold (physical metal) and paper gold (COMEX) — presenter flags a divergence and claims COMEX is “losing control.”
  • Silver and COMEX silver (presenter cites high “silver stress” / low COMEX inventories).
  • Gold miners ETF: GDX.
• Energy and related
  • Oil (crude) and energy majors: XOM (ExxonMobil), CVX (Chevron).
  • Energy sector ETF: XLE.
  • Shipping insurance (Lloyd’s of London) and government war insurance.
• Defense / utilities
  • Defense/aerospace ETF: ITA.
  • Utilities (defensive, dividend-oriented).
• Platforms / products referenced
  • TradeVision charting app (presenter-built).
  • Community stress indices and training links (captions reference felixpens.org/training and other training URLs).

Methodology and framework

Core filter: “Don’t watch the news. Watch the charts. Follow the money flows.”

Three practical steps:

1. Stop watching the news; use charts to see where institutional money is moving.
2. Ignore predictions (including the presenter’s); focus on where smart/institutional capital is flowing.
3. When headlines trigger action, pause → check historical precedents → “sleep on it” → apply rules for selling/profit-taking and stop-losses.

Referenced technical/visual pattern:

• “Heartbeat pattern” — a pre-breakout chart pattern used to time entries.

Four-phase market/conflict cycle (as described):

1. Shock — panic, headlines spike; oil and gold spike; markets drop.
2. Absorption — calm begins; safe-havens often peak; retail tends to sell here.
3. Recovery — typically 4–18 months in historical examples; rotation back into growth.
4. New highs / outperformance — markets eventually make new all-time highs (historical pattern).

Key numbers, performance metrics, timelines, historical parallels

Historical moves (presenter-cited examples):

• 1973 oil embargo: OPEC cuts cited as ~5% per month; oil rose (roughly $3 → $5); gold roughly doubled (quoted as ~$97 → ~$183–193; ~89% in 12 months).
• 1979 Iran revolution: gold cited rising from ~$226 → ~$850 in one year (~+276%). Silver reportedly outperformed gold by roughly 3:1 in 1979 (presenter claim).
• 1991 Gulf War: oil spiked ~140%; gold jumped ~10% in weeks. Energy stocks rose ~34% over the next 18 months (historical reference).
• Post-9/11: defense sector reportedly outperformed the S&P by ~47% over three years.
• 2022: gold broke through $2,000 (cited).

Recent / presenter claims (should be verified independently):

• Gold breakout began “late August 2025” — caption likely erroneous (verify date).
• Since their breakout point (they reference a September move), presenter claims:
  • Gold is up ~48%.
  • Gold miners up ~140%.
  • Energy stocks “up ~20% in the last month or so.”
  • Defense/aerospace “about 50% up.”
• Central banks buying record amounts of gold (claimed).

Geopolitical / supply stats cited:

• Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil flows (disruption risk cited).
• Cuba is ~90 miles from Florida and has historical reliance on Venezuelan oil (presenter’s geopolitical thesis).
• WWII example used illustratively: German aviation fuel collapsed from ~180,000 tons/month to ~11,000 tons/month by 1945.

Market dynamics / indicators mentioned:

• COMEX silver stress index high; COMEX silver inventories reportedly low (presenter community metric).
• Divergences between COMEX paper flows and physical holdings.
• ETF/sector flows (GDX, ITA, XLE) as evidence of institutional rotation.

Signals and market indicators to watch (presenter highlights)

• Institutional buying — large bank accumulation and ETF flows rather than headline-driven retail moves.
• COMEX vs physical inventory divergences (premiums, stress indices).
• Rising shipping insurance costs or cancellations as indicators of heightened oil-shipping risk.
• ETF flows and price action in GDX (gold miners), ITA (defense), XLE (energy).

Explicit recommendations, cautions and practical rules

• Behavioral / risk-management guidance:
  • Don’t trade on headlines or social-media “gurus.” Use charts and institutional flow analysis instead.
  • Have explicit selling rules: when to take profits and when to cut losers — selling rules are emphasized as the critical skill.
  • Pause and evaluate historical precedents before acting on panic-driven headlines; “sleep on it.”
  • Position for probabilities, not predictions.
• Sector/asset ideas highlighted as potential beneficiaries during oil/geopolitical supply shocks:
  • Physical gold and gold miners (miners higher risk/reward).
  • Silver (presenter notes higher supply stress and industrial demand).
  • Energy majors and energy ETFs (XOM, CVX, XLE).
  • Defense / aerospace (ITA).
  • Utilities (defensive).

Data or claims flagged as potentially erroneous or ambiguous

• “Late August 2025” breakout date — likely a caption error; verify the actual breakout date.
• Percentage moves cited by the presenter (gold +48%, miners +140%, defense +50%, energy +20%) are assertions that should be validated against market data.
• Multiple different training URLs appear in captions (e.g., felixpens.org/training and phoenix…/training) — verify the correct link from the original source.
• Several other historical-percentage and timing claims should be independently confirmed before acting on them.

Disclosures and caveats

“I’m not a registered financial advisor. I’m not telling you to buy gold.” Past performance isn’t predictive. Follow the charts and data; news and social media are noisy and can lead to poor decision-making.

The presenter repeatedly emphasizes that historical parallels do not guarantee future results and that viewers should verify numbers and dates.

Presenters and sources cited

• Felix Breen — ex-investment banker, founder of Goat Academy (primary presenter).
• Winston — metals researcher on Felix’s team.
• Institutional/market names referenced: Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Lloyd’s of London, central banks (as buyers of gold).
• Mentions of unnamed “Wall Street mentors” and community research indices from the presenter’s platform.

If you act on these ideas

• Verify the numbers and dates (some captions/subtitles may be inaccurate).
• Confirm current ETF/ticker prices, flows, and COMEX/physical inventory data before trading.
• Apply explicit risk-management rules (position sizing, selling rules, stop-losses) and consider consulting a registered financial advisor.