164. ASBIS - analiza techniczna spółki 20.10.2026

ASBIS (ASBISc Enterprises): Technical-Analysis Overview

20 October 2026

Price Action and Company News

• The presenter said ASBIS had its deepest correction of the year: over roughly 10 sessions, the share price fell from below PLN 200 to around PLN 150.
• Following September sales figures, the shares rebounded by about 6–8% during the session, trading around PLN 169 after opening with a demand gap. Trading volume was high, but the presenter characterized intraday buying and selling as broadly balanced.
• The subtitles report September revenue of $1 billion, more than 200% higher year over year. In the presenter’s view, this strong result did not yet confirm a technical reversal.
• Q3 results were expected on 5 November. The board reportedly confirmed that the dividend policy was unchanged; no dividend announcement had been made.
• The presenter mentioned AI-related concerns and risk aversion as possible contributors to the earlier sell-off, but did not establish them as its cause.

Technical Picture and Key Levels

• Short-term/hourly: The chart remained in a downtrend, with lower highs and downward-arranged moving averages. A rebound alone was not enough to confirm a reversal.
• Daily: The sharp decline broke nearby support around PLN 168–170, but the presenter said the price was still holding above rising, uncrossed moving averages. He viewed the correction as a warning sign, not yet proof that the broader uptrend had ended.
• Weekly: The longer-term trend was still intact. The presenter suggested that a fall toward roughly PLN 120–130 would be needed to break the weekly trend.
• A weekly close around PLN 177–179 could strengthen the case for a rebound and a renewed challenge to prior highs near PLN 180–200. A later lower high or double top could instead signal that the longer-term trend was weakening.
• The presenter cautioned that a red monthly candle—potentially the first notable supply candle after several rising months—could indicate a deeper correction, depending on how the month closed.

Levels Discussed for Possible Entries and Risk Management

• Possible early entry: A break above roughly PLN 171–173 was presented as a speculative, higher-risk trigger. The presenter preferred waiting for stronger demand, more confirmation, or a clearer hourly moving-average crossover.
• Nearby downside reference points or possible stop areas:
  • Below the prior low near PLN 154.20
  • Around PLN 150 (the subtitles also refer to a level just below it)
  • Around PLN 143, with the weekly 15-period moving average near PLN 145

These were presented as illustrative levels, not universal stop prices. The presenter stressed that each investor’s entry price, timeframe, and risk tolerance matter.

Framework and Investing Approach

• For a potential purchase: Assess the company’s fundamentals, check whether the chart confirms market demand, then calculate position size and an exit level that limits acceptable losses.
• Use the timeframe that matches the strategy. The presenter described his own approach as long-term investing made up of medium-term positions, generally held for weeks or months and sometimes up to a year.
• Use technical analysis as a guide to possible direction and risk—not as a guarantee that support will hold or that a forecast will prove correct.
• Be consistent about the signals used, whether moving averages, highs and lows, or support levels; do not switch methods opportunistically.
• Diversify rather than concentrating too much capital in one company. The presenter advocated judging results across many positions and transactions, and suggested that staged or partial stops can help manage risk.
• Strong company results do not guarantee share-price gains: market sentiment, prior positioning, and profit-taking can outweigh positive news. A large loss also takes a substantial gain to recover—for example, a 50% fall requires a 100% rise to return to the starting price.

Overall View and Cautions

The presenter described ASBIS as being in a significant but, so far, still potentially normal correction within its broader uptrend. The near-term setup remained weak, so he advised caution about buying immediately and preferred waiting for clearer evidence of demand. He emphasized that the technical picture could change quickly, and that favorable results do not prevent further declines if overall market sentiment deteriorates.

Disclosure: The video’s metadata states that the material is for educational and informational purposes only, is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell, and that investing involves the risk of losing capital.

Presenter/source: Paul Kuzma, channel Jak sprzedam to zacznie rosnąć.