FIRE på svenska - #59 Tankar om innehav och uttag (och elefanten i rummet)

FIRE på svenska — Episode #59: “Thoughts on Holdings and Withdrawals”

Presenter: Jesper (Fire in Swedish) Recorded: around March 4 (year implied)

Key topics

• Portfolio composition and withdrawal strategy during heightened market volatility (triggered by recent geopolitical events).
• Emphasis on having a written plan: the math (withdrawal rules) and a life plan (how to spend time) before quitting work.
• Stick to rules in turbulent markets; avoid impulse trading.

Assets / instruments / sectors mentioned

• Equity funds (general)
• Länsförsäkringar Global
• Länsförsäkringar Sverige (Sweden equity fund)
• Länsförsäkringar Europa index
• Spiltan Investmentbolag (Swedish investment company)
• Avanza Global Index
• Cash / salary / checking account
• Fixed-rate / interest accounts (bank savings)
• Gold (commodity)
• Oil (commodity) and gasoline (consumer price impact)
• FX: USD/SEK (dollar up, krona down)
• Portfolio lending / margin borrowing (mentioned as a possibility)
• “PayPal and similar assets” (mentioned in passing)

Portfolio allocation (reported at time of recording)

Total portfolio ≈ 5.55 million SEK (sum inferred)

• Länsförsäkringar Global: ~22% — ~1,162,000 SEK
• Länsförsäkringar Sverige: ~37% — just over 2,000,000 SEK
• Länsförsäkringar Europa index: ~8% — ~543,000 SEK
• Spiltan Investmentbolag: ~11% — ~602,000 SEK
• Avanza Global Index: ~17% — ~947,000 SEK
• Checking/salary account: ~0% (rounded) — ~18,000 SEK
• Fixed-interest accounts: ~5% — ~279,000 SEK

Performance & key numbers

• Quarter (end-November → end-February) portfolio return: +4.16%
• Jesper’s withdrawal rule: withdraw ~1% of starting capital each quarter (≈4%/year)
  • 2025: withdrew ~40,000 SEK per quarter → ~200,000 SEK/year
  • 2026: increased by c.2% inflation → ~204,000 SEK/year → ~41,000 SEK per quarter
• Investment-company “play bucket” target: max 10% of portfolio (currently ~11% → plans to take withdrawals from this to reduce toward target)
• Cash runway: some fixed-rate cash held to cover living expenses for ~2–3 years if market collapses

Methodology / withdrawal framework

Jesper maintains both a written “math” plan and a life plan. The quarterly review and withdrawal rules are central.

1. Maintain a written withdrawal strategy (math and life sides).
2. Quarterly review (after Dec–Jan–Feb):
   • Measure portfolio return for the quarter.
   • If the quarterly return is within the “normal return” band (-3% to +7%), rebalance by withdrawing from the fund that performed best (use proceeds from winners to fund withdrawals).
   • Prefer withdrawals from funds (not bank cash) for rebalancing.
   • Target withdrawals from holdings that have exceeded their planned allocation (e.g., take from play bucket / Spiltan if over 10%).
   • Consider portfolio lending / margin only as a contingency if there is a deep double-digit market slump and liquidity is needed — otherwise avoid.
3. Keep a core fully invested in equity funds (home bias acknowledged) and a small speculative/play allocation.
4. Keep a small cash / fixed-income buffer for short-term needs (2–3 years coverage claimed).

Macro / market context and risk points

• Recent geopolitical shock (U.S. strike on Iran — “Iran war”) produced sharp market moves: a down day (~-2% noted) followed by partial recoveries.
• Expect larger, choppier daily moves (e.g., -2%, +1%, -3%, +2%) — greater volatility than normal.
• Currency effects: USD often strengthens in crises; for Swedish investors this can cushion or change SEK‑denominated outcomes (global USD assets may show less SEK pain).
• Sector / country concentration risk: example — South Korea exposed to oil imports leading to sector/country-specific drawdowns despite prior outperformance.
• Gold did not spike as some expected in this event (Jesper’s observation).
• Inflation and commodity prices (gasoline) can be affected and later filter through to the economy and prices.

Recommendations / cautions

• Stick to your predetermined strategy and rules; don’t act on instinct during shocks.
• Rebalance by withdrawals when returns are within your normal band.
• If a holding exceeds its planned cap (e.g., investment companies > 10%), take withdrawals from it.
• Consider margin / portfolio lending only as a contingency in a large market crash — not a routine action.
• Invested money is not for immediate daily spending — maintain separate cash for daily needs.
• Evaluate home bias and concentration; be aware of currency and sector risks.
• If you’re poorly positioned (too concentrated), you can rebalance quickly (days–weeks) rather than delay indefinitely.

Disclosure / tone

• Jesper frames the content as his personal approach: “I’m doing this for myself” and shares it for viewers. It is presented as his personal plan and reasoning rather than a formal promise of results.

Timelines referenced

• Video recorded around March 4 (year implied).
• Recent market moves referenced: U.S.–Iran incident the Saturday before the video; sharp market drop the following Monday; partial recovery in the following days.
• Performance window used for quarterly review: end-November → end-February.

Action items Jesper intends

• For the coming quarter he will withdraw his quarterly amount (≈41,000 SEK) and will take it from Swedish investments, likely from Spiltan Investmentbolag (reduce “play bucket” toward 10%).
• Continue to hold the majority in equity funds with a small fixed-income buffer and a play bucket.

Other sources / commenters mentioned

• Viewers/commenters: Thomas Lindström, Big Pete, Johan Reblén, Angelik, Uffenpuffen (Ulf), Giraff Mano.
• Jesper refers to earlier episodes: #58 (One More Year) and #12 (Withdrawal strategy).

Summary takeaway

Maintain a written, rule-based withdrawal and rebalancing plan. During geopolitical shocks expect higher volatility and currency movements; rebalance withdrawals from top-performing/winner funds especially when allocations exceed targets; keep short-term cash for living needs and avoid emotional trading.