Gold's Next Cycle Won't Need a Falling Dollar to Succeed: Gareth Soloway

Gareth Soloway (Verified Investing) argues gold is in a multi-stage downcycle: expect short-term headline-driven bounces but a larger washout of weak hands before a resumed secular bull market (near-term technical target ≈ USD 3,500/oz; long-term target ≈ USD 10,000/oz).

High-level takeaways

• Gold: multi-stage downcycle with short-term tradable bounces; structural trend confirmed/invalidated by key chart levels.
• Near-term market moves are headline- and volatility-driven (geopolitics, oil tweets), creating swing-trade opportunities.
• Key macro/market risks: oil price action, US 10‑yr yields, private credit liquidity/stress, Fed policy response to war/inflation, and ddollarization (longer-term USD weakening).

Assets, tickers & instruments mentioned

• Gold (spot, April futures)
• Silver (spot)
• GDX (gold miners ETF)
• Bitcoin (BTC)
• Brent crude (oil)
• S&P 500 (index)
• US 10‑year Treasury yield
• DXY (US dollar index)
• CAD, EURUSD (FX)
• Private credit funds / platforms (mentions: Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater)
• Sponsor/platform: Swan Bitcoin

Explicit price levels, yields, timelines & recommendations

Gold

• Intraday low shown: ~USD 4,100/oz (spot); bounced toward ~4,450.
• Key near-term zone: USD 4,300–4,400
  • Daily close below this zone → next leg lower toward ~USD 3,500/oz (near-term target).
  • If price holds ~4,300–4,400 → short-term bounce to ~4,600–4,700 possible.
• Structural bull invalidation level: reclaim and take out ~USD 5,400 → would negate the 3,500 call and support a move toward new ATHs and a multi-year target of ~USD 10,000/oz.
• Tactical guidance: swing-trade bounces; buy physical metal at or below ~USD 3,500 (accumulation price stated by Gareth).

Silver

• Intraday low close: ~USD 60.89; bounced >USD 70 briefly.
• Key levels:
  • Must reclaim USD 70–71 to show strength → potential rally to ~USD 91–93.
  • Breakout above ~93 → could target ~USD 120.
  • Downside target maintained: USD 50–54.

GDX (miners ETF)

• Gareth bought pre-market around ~75 targeting ~94 (~25–30% swing).
• Longer-term accumulation level: around ~68 (start legging in).
• Recent referenced high: ~117.

Bitcoin

• Near-term bullish target: USD 80–85k.
• Caveat: broad market selloffs could take BTC down to ~50k before resuming higher.

Oil (Brent)

• Recent reaction: slid from ~USD 113 to ~100 after diplomatic/diplomacy tweets.
• Gareth’s view: oil is close to a topping pattern; needs to be brought down to ~USD 65–75 by June to avoid sustained inflation into midterms.

US yields / Fed

• US 10‑yr yield spike described as equivalent to ~50 bps Fed hike (from May 2 to recent high).
• Yields approached ~4.5% — noted as a political/policy threshold.
• Comment referenced: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Fed could consider hikes if war-driven inflation accelerates.

S&P 500

• Chart-based scenario: could trade back down toward ~5,600 by year-end in a deeper selloff (example downside).

Macro data points

• US public debt: north of USD 39 trillion (macro point supporting ddollarization / debasement thesis).
• Private credit market size cited: ~USD 2 trillion — flagged as systemic risk with redemption caps.

Methodology & frameworks (technical + risk management)

1. Chart / technical approach
   • Identify key support/resistance zones; use daily closes to confirm next legs.
   • Recognize pattern formations: bear flags, inside bars, lower highs/lower lows, inverse head & shoulders.
   • Use structure-change triggers to flip bias (e.g., gold > USD 5,400 flips to bullish).
2. Trading & allocation tactics
   • Swing trade for short-term volatility; trade bounces off technical levels.
   • Use physical metal for long-term core holdings (don’t trade physical for short-term).
   • Leg into positions: start partial and add incrementally as price moves lower (example: buy 1/5 at successive lower levels).
   • Match actions to horizon: long-term buy‑and‑hold investors should not react to short-term volatility.
3. Risk management cues
   • Watch for liquidity/margin-call driven selling (private credit stress, margin calls on leveraged positions).
   • Monitor bond market/yields as a constraint on policy (bond market can “dictate policy”).
   • Treat geopolitical headlines as volatility/trade triggers but rely on chart structure for directional conviction.

Explicit recommendations & cautions

• Expect a short-term bounce in gold but remain bearish until charts confirm otherwise; consider buying physical metal around USD 3,500.
• Use GDX for tactical swing trades (example: bought ~75 targeting ~94); accumulate longer term down to ~68 by legging in.
• Silver: keep a bearish longer-term bias until reclaiming 70–71 (then 91–93); downside 50–54 remains possible.
• Bitcoin: preferred near-term risk-on play; target 80–85k but prepare for volatility and possible drop to ~50k during market stress.
• Physical metal holders: generally hold, and consider adding on further weakness.
• Market psychology: many entered gold as a momentum/risk-on trade in the last surge; “weak hands” need to be washed out.
• Liquidity squeezes / forced selling can drive metal prices lower independently of safe‑haven demand.

Macro context / systemic points

• Geopolitics: reported diplomatic backchannels (Axio: Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner negotiating with Iranian parliamentary speaker Muhammad Bajar Galibbah; possible Islamabad meeting) temporarily eased oil-related fears and produced violent market moves.
• Private credit stress: redemption caps and liquidity squeezes (funds linked to Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater referenced) could force selling across assets.
• US fiscal/political dynamics: elevated debt, war spending, and midterm pressures may push policymakers to influence markets (e.g., pressure to lower oil).
• Ddollarization theme: Gareth argues the USD rally in this crisis has been underwhelming vs prior crises; CAD and EUR strength and currency breakouts point to longer-run USD weakening, which could decouple gold from needing a falling USD to rally.

Performance & volatility notes

• Gold: unprecedented intraday volatility (hundreds of dollars moves; examples of ~USD 300–500 swings).
• Silver: ~32% drop since May 10 into the low shown.
• GDX: ~35% straight drop referenced before Gareth bought.
• Bitcoin: dropped >50% over prior 6 months (context for rotation).

Trigger / confirmation levels to watch

• Gold:
  • Daily close below USD 4,300 → toward USD 3,500.
  • Reclaim & break above USD 5,400 → bearish thesis invalidated; resume bull toward ATHs / USD 10,000.
• Silver:
  • Must reclaim USD 70–71 to sustain rally to ~91–93; failure → target USD 50–54.
• GDX:
  • Swing target ~94; long-term accumulation down to ~68.
• Bitcoin:
  • Near-term target USD 80–85k; downside risk to ~50k in broad selloffs.
• Oil:
  • Watch Brent around USD 100–113 and policy/geo developments that could push it to USD 65–75 (targeted level by June).
• Yields:
  • Watch US 10‑yr near ~4.5% as a politically and policy-significant level.

Presenters, sources & disclosures

• Presenters: Jeremy Saffron (host), Gareth Soloway (guest, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing).
• Sponsor / platform: Swan Bitcoin (show sponsor), Kicko News / Kickco (show).
• Other sources/names referenced: Axio, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Muhammad Bajar Galibbah (as named in transcript), Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater, Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed President).
• Disclosures: sponsored by Swan Bitcoin. No explicit “not financial advice” subtitle noted; Gareth discusses personal trading and positions as his views/actions rather than formal advice.