क्या कभी लौटेंगे FIIs? अगले 2.5 साल मार्केट में क्या होगा? | Feroze Azeez | Anand Rathi Wealth | SKT

Finance-focused summary (markets/investing/fund selection)

Horizon: next ~2.5 years (until Jan 2029), “as long as Trump is in power.”

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Macro / market view & timeline

Timeline framing

• The discussion frames the investing horizon as the next 2.5 years, tied to Donald Trump’s presidency until Jan 2029.
• Market performance context:
  • 2025: “bad for everyone’s portfolio” and markets.
  • Start of 2026: expected improvement, but “nothing good happened.”
  • September 24 (year unspecified): India’s Nifty reached a peak, followed by ~1.5 years of weakness.
  • After the peak, the market saw another decline of about 8%.
  • A further 7–8% price correction is expected as part of a typical “time correction / price correction” pattern.

Outlook / stance

• High probability (speaker’s view): Nifty could touch its peak again within the current calendar year.
• “Bullish” definition:
  • Nifty delivering > ~11% (median), rather than “guaranteed upside.”
• Return statistics mentioned:
  • Mean return ~14%
  • Median return ~11%
• Probability claim:
  • ~90% chance of compounding around 11% over the next ~3 years, tied to expected flow dynamics.

FIIs / liquidity & index mechanics

• The speaker argues US liquidity hasn’t “meaningfully flowed” to India because:
  • MSCI Emerging Markets weights are changing.
  • India’s weight is decreasing as other EMs (e.g., AI/semiconductor themes in Korea) outperform.
• FIIs are not homogeneous (detailed in the FIIs section below).

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Portfolio construction methodology (explicit framework)

A. “How I manage my portfolio” (presenter: Firoze Azeez / Sir)

Allocation (as stated)

• 65% equity mutual funds
• 35% “structure products”
  • Described as unique instruments; subtitles contain garbled text (“mostly for HAI” appears).
• Also holds Anand Rathi shares (speaker is a KMP at the firm).

Leverage / derivatives overlay

• Uses pledged mutual funds + derivatives (leverage).
• Reported drawdown impact:
  • When the market falls, he estimates losing ~10–15% of portfolio net worth due to leverage impact.

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B. Leverage usage rules & “when to borrow” (step-like rules)

• Leverage framed as “like fire”:
  • Controlled leverage = potentially useful
  • Uncontrolled leverage = can “burn the house”
• Suggested leverage sizing:
  • “Sensible leverage” of ~10–20% of net worth (described as “should be mandatory”).
  • Mentions a Nobel-winning framework and claims leverage could be up to ~27% under a model (see CAPM section).
• Drawdown-based trigger concept:
  • Consider buying when the market is ~15% below the peak.
  • Do not consider deeper correction (subtitles inconsistent), but the stated message is to treat ~15% down as a correction zone, with allowance for a further ~10% drop.
• Liquidity / cashflow planning:
  • Keeps money liquid.
  • Plans borrowing so obligations/cashflows are covered ~2 years in advance.
• Capital vs business returns:
  • Claims investment constraints are mostly capital-related, while business growth is constrained by other factors (operations, capacity, labor, etc.).

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C. Risk-adjusted fund selection framework (step-by-step)

• Core idea: “Choose the fund manager, not the fund.”
• Recommended steps:
  1. Stay within top 5–7 AMCs (avoid small AMCs if investing yourself).
  2. Look at 2–3 ratios (can’t rely only on past performance; check rolling returns).
  3. Rank using risk-adjusted performance:
     • Use Sharpe ratio (higher is better).
     • Example: for Flexi Cap schemes, sort by Sharpe ratio across relevant horizons (he references next 2.5 years and suggests tool-based selection).
  4. Evaluate the fund manager’s thought process:
     • “Listen to the fund manager” / relevant leadership (CIO) and compare with your own logic.
  5. Easiest shortcut:
     • Evaluate Anand Rathi model portfolios (speaker claims their research can still beat Nifty, even if some picks underperform), quoting 3–4% potential outperformance.

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Recommendations / “what to buy” (named schemes + conditions)

• The host (Shalini) asks which funds to invest in for 2.5 years.
• The speaker provides a short list of four schemes (other names were mentioned in a different episode, per subtitles).

Explicit fund calls (partly unclear in subtitles)

1. HDFC Flexi Cap
2. RBCO Multicap (exact naming unclear from subtitles)
3. SBI Large and Mid Cap (if adding a large/mid cap component)
4. Quant Large Cap
   • Added as possible large-cap component; noted “past performance last year was not good” but says he’s starting to pick it up based on recent movement.

Small-cap note (factor bets context)

• Speaker claims that during “market down/fear,” he was “the only one standing” for buying small caps while others chased.
• Mentions:
  • Potential small-cap returns: ~25%
  • April return ~19% on NSE Small Cap 250
    • Subtitle inconsistencies: references “NSC Cap 250” / later “NSC Small Cap 250.”

Portfolio continuation advice

• Even with SIP starting/ongoing: “don’t be afraid… keep doing it.”
• Use multiple funds, not a single bet (because 1–2 schemes can fail).

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Performance metrics & expected returns (numbers mentioned)

Expected return logic

• Emphasizes risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio), not only raw returns.

Macro return targets (Nifty)

• Bullish target: Nifty > ~11% median return; mean ~14%.

Investor compounding example (“second year”)

• The host’s recap (not the main expert): believes 13–14% compounding can occur in the second year (“take with a pinch of salt”).

Example comparison numbers (direct equity vs index/Nifty)

• Example shown:
  • Direct equity portfolio “closing value ₹25 lakh”
  • If traded using Nifty, it would have reached ₹28 lakh
• Another scenario (subtitles conflict):
  • Doing Nifty would have been ₹18 lakh
• Bottom line: direct equity was not consistently outperforming Nifty.

Client/model attribution statistics

• 93% of clients’ direct equity portfolios could not beat the expert/model approach (Anand Rathi model).
• 40% could not even beat Nifty.
• 7% beat the model approach.

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FIIs / DIIs / flows: key concepts + indices/indices

Instruments / indices referenced

• Nifty
• MSCI Emerging Markets
• NSE Small Cap 250 / “NSC Small Cap 250”
• Mentions using “Nifty on the same day” for backtesting

FIIs taxonomy (explicit)

Speaker claims there are three types of FIIs:

1. FII index fund behavior
2. FIIs investing own capital (example entities mentioned are garbled; e.g., “Howard” and retirement funds)
3. Trading FIIs (“trading FII”): aggressive buy/sell around results

Trading FIIs behavior claim

• Claims there are 17 trading FIIs that trade heavily around result days.
• Claim: when a stock drops after a “good result,” there is ~80% chance it was bought by one of these FIIs and sold on results day.

DIIs taxonomy (explicit)

Speaker claims four main DIIs:

• Insurance
• Mutual Funds (big)
• AIF
• PMS

Flow example + caution about headlines

• Mentions: mutual funds bought goods worth ₹56,000 crore in equity.
• Yet PMS/AIF selling may be “hidden” in DII net numbers → headlines can mislead.
• Warning: “Devil is in the details—headlines can only tell direction… can’t tell outcome.”

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Leverage methodology / Nobel model claim (CAPM)

• References CAPM and Nobel-related sources:
  • Harry Markowitz
  • William Sharpe
• Claims:
  • “Only one theory of wealth management… Nobel prize” (as stated)
  • They “test the model accordingly.”
  • Belief: leverage can be up to ~27% under the CAPM framework, and they apply it (presented more conceptually than verifiable in subtitles).

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Disclosures / disclaimers mentioned

• Speaker advises viewers to:
  • Do your own research (“RAD yourself” likely means “do your due diligence/own research”).
  • Ask your financial advisor.
• Scheme names are framed as education/help, not blind instructions.
• No clearly quoted “not financial advice” phrase is visible, but the DIY research and advisor caveats appear.

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Tickers / assets / instruments mentioned

Indices

• Nifty
• MSCI Emerging Markets
• NSE Small Cap 250 / NSC Small Cap 250

Companies / firms

• Anand Rathi (also Anand Rathi Wealth Limited)
• Samsung (mentioned as a market-region theme context; not clearly as a tradable recommendation)

Funds / categories / vehicles

• HDFC Flexi Cap
• RBCO Multicap (name uncertain in subtitles)
• SBI Large and Mid Cap
• Quant Large Cap
• PMS (Portfolio Management Services)
• AIF (Alternative Investment Funds)
• Derivatives (used on pledged mutual funds)
• Mentions:
  • Gold: speaker says he does not hold gold “in any form.”
  • Debt: speaker says no debt in his personal portfolio.

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Presenters / sources mentioned

• Firoze (Firoz) Azeez — Joint CEO, Anand Rathi Wealth (main finance expert)
• Shalini Kapoor Tiwari — podcast host (SKT)
• Anand Rathi — firm referenced (not a person in subtitles)
• William Sharpe and Harry Markowitz — Nobel-related CAPM reference sources
• Donald Trump — used as a macro/political timeline driver
• AMFI — mentioned for investor education campaign spend