AVIVO GILES: en 2 meses la economía va a entrar en RECESIÓN ¿Por qué?

Summary

The speaker expects Argentina’s economy may meet the commonly used definition of a technical recession when third-quarter activity data is published, likely around the end of November. The definition is two consecutive quarters of declining economic activity, although there is no single universal definition.

The forecast is based on quarterly averages:

• Activity declined in Q2 2026 compared with Q1. Activity fell in April and May, and June’s rebound did not make up for those losses.
• Activity dropped sharply in July—nearly 3% month over month. August and September may rebound, but the speaker doubts the gains will be large enough for the Q3 average to exceed Q2.
• The forecast is uncertain: monthly and quarterly measures can differ, and official figures may be revised.

Activity data is released with roughly a two-month lag, so a recession classification may appear after conditions have already changed. The speaker argues that activity had been weak even before any formal technical-recession classification.

The 2026 growth outlook has been cut to about 1.5%, down from an expectation of 3% or more at the beginning of the year—less than half the initial forecast. Activity reportedly peaked in March 2026 and had generally stagnated around its December 2025 level.

The speaker says economic activity grew substantially over the broader period of Milei’s government, compared with the previous three or four administrations, but emphasizes that 2026 has been difficult and growth is uneven across sectors.

Sectors and Macroeconomic Outlook

• Oil, mining, and agriculture are identified as productive sectors with continuing growth trends and investment fundamentals.
• Industry and construction are described as among the hardest-hit sectors, particularly in the transition away from the previous macroeconomic model and its subsidies or support.
• Other sectors are characterized as more dependent on the economic cycle and sensitive to exchange-rate volatility, inflation, interest rates, and the international environment.

The speaker expects inflation to move around 2% or below 2% in the coming months, potentially supporting a recovery in wages. They describe interest rates as relatively stable, see no strong upward pressure on the dollar, and note that credit is improving somewhat.

In the speaker’s view, the broad pattern of activity may not change much until after the elections and until substantial reforms address sectors that struggle to operate under macroeconomic stability.

Framework and Figures Cited

• Assess recession risk: Compare average activity across consecutive three-month quarters. Two consecutive quarterly declines meet the commonly used technical-recession definition.
• Interpret the data cautiously: Monthly activity data arrives with a lag, quarterly averages may tell a different story, and official data can be revised.
• Look beyond the recession label: Focus on the underlying activity trend and the composition of growth, not just the technical classification.

The speaker describes a paid “economic traffic light” service that tracks inflation, interest rates, country risk, the dollar, and economic activity, and offers views on adapting savings or investments. No specific portfolio allocation, security, or trade is recommended in the video.

Assets, Instruments, and Disclosures

• No individual tickers, stocks, ETFs, bonds, cryptocurrencies, or commodity instruments are mentioned.
• Commodities and sectors discussed include oil, mining, and agriculture. Other relevant macroeconomic variables include the dollar, interest rates, inflation, and country risk.
• The speaker promotes Daily Economics Pro, described as a paid community costing 10,000 pesos per month, as well as free Telegram and WhatsApp channels.
• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles. The video offers macroeconomic opinions but does not provide specific investment instructions.

Presenters and sources: Avivo Giles (named in the video title); Adriel Segura / the Adriel Segura channel (publisher). The speaker also refers to the Daily Economics community.