Why Russia needs China more than ever | Al Jazeera Explains

Summary

The video argues that Russia’s partnership with China has become increasingly unequal since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline is a clear example: Russia urgently needs new gas customers after losing much of its European market, while China has other energy suppliers and alternatives. Although the countries have agreed on the pipeline’s route and annual volume, they have not agreed on a price. The video presents this impasse as evidence that Beijing has greater bargaining power.

This shift reflects a broader change in the relationship. Russia once supplied military technology that China wanted, but China’s economy and defence industry have grown substantially. Meanwhile, Western sanctions have restricted Russia’s access to markets, finance, and technology, making China harder for Moscow to replace.

Trade between the two countries reached nearly $245 billion in 2024, but the exchange is uneven: Russia mainly sells energy and raw materials, while China supplies machinery, electronics, vehicles, and other manufactured goods. Chinese suppliers have also filled gaps left by Western export controls, including in some dual-use goods that can support Russia’s military production. The video cites estimates that, by 2023, Chinese suppliers provided 70–90% of Russian imports in several high-priority categories. China denies supplying lethal weapons, and the video notes that Chinese firms and banks have sometimes pulled back when they risk Western sanctions.

Financial ties have also deepened. Close to 40% of Russia’s trade is now denominated in yuan, reducing reliance on dollars and euros but increasing Russia’s dependence on Chinese financial channels. In energy, Russia sells roughly half of its crude exports to China, while Russian oil makes up only about a fifth of China’s imports. China’s access to other suppliers gives it more options when negotiating.

The partnership still serves China’s strategic interests. Both governments oppose what they see as excessive US influence, and Beijing has reason to avoid a Russian defeat that could free the United States to focus more on China. But the video stresses that this support has limits: China has avoided a formal military alliance, and Russia remains politically independent, with significant military, energy, and diplomatic assets of its own. The two countries also compete for influence and retain mutual mistrust.

The central conclusion is that dependence does not require one country to control the other; it arises when one has fewer alternatives. Russia needs Chinese markets, goods, technology, finance, and energy demand more urgently than China needs Russia. The unresolved pipeline price captures that imbalance: Russia needs the deal more, while China can afford to wait.

Presenters and Contributors

• Al Jazeera narrator/presenter: Not identified in the subtitles.
• Archival news-report voice: Not identified.
• Named figures discussed or quoted: Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, an unnamed Chinese deputy representative to the United Nations, and an unnamed Chinese foreign minister.