Seyed M. Marandi: Egypt Joins Saudi War - A Wider War Is Coming

Summary

The discussion centers on the risk that the Saudi–Yemen conflict could widen, particularly after Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi reportedly sought a parliamentary vote on possible military involvement. The interview takes place before the vote’s outcome is known, so Egyptian participation is presented as a possibility, not a confirmed decision.

Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi argues that intervention by Egypt, Turkey, or Pakistan would be unlikely to change the military balance. He says those countries lack the means to reliably defend Saudi infrastructure or shipping from Yemeni missiles and drones, while sending ground troops into Yemen could bring heavy losses. He also warns that involvement could damage their standing at home and abroad, especially given their limited response to the war in Gaza. Marandi portrays Yemen’s Ansar Allah movement as having built up domestic military capabilities and as being more able than Saudi Arabia to endure a prolonged conflict.

Marandi says the conflict’s expansion was avoidable. He attributes the latest escalation to Saudi actions, including an alleged strike on an airport as an Iranian passenger plane was arriving. He suggests—while acknowledging he cannot confirm it—that the United States may have encouraged Saudi Arabia to act. He describes Yemen’s attacks as retaliation for the blockade and strikes on Yemeni infrastructure.

A major concern in the interview is the possibility of a new U.S. attack on Iran. Marandi outlines three potential paths: a large-scale attack and severe retaliation; a more limited U.S. strike followed by a powerful Iranian response; or continued escalation without a direct U.S.–Iran war. He predicts that any of these could worsen the global economic crisis, while a direct war could threaten Gulf energy infrastructure and disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. These are Marandi’s forecasts and assessments, not established outcomes.

Marandi also argues that Saudi Arabia is financially and politically vulnerable. He says further damage to oil facilities, combined with economic pressure, could deepen internal tensions involving tribal groups, members of the ruling family, and religious figures. He warns that Egypt and other potential interveners could face economic strain too. The interview does not independently verify these claims.

The conversation broadens to the connections between conflicts in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine. Marandi argues that U.S. efforts to draw regional states into the conflict, alongside weakening trust in diplomacy, could make several fronts converge. Both speakers describe the outlook as dangerous and see little evidence of a durable diplomatic path. Marandi ends by saying that growing public awareness gives him some hope.

Presenters and Contributors

• Glenn Diesen — Presenter and interviewer
• Seyed Mohammad Marandi — Guest; University of Tehran lecturer and former adviser to Iran’s nuclear negotiating team