Summary of "If You Own Silver, Here's Your Action Plan for This Week | John AG"
Brief overview
- Rapid, large move in silver: a ~39% intraday collapse followed by a partial rebound. The presenter frames this as a correction inside a longer-term bull market driven by structural supply shortages and industrial demand.
What happened (key market events & numbers)
- Price action:
- Fell from $121 → $73 (~$48 drop, ~39%) within hours.
- Rebounded to ~$85 (+$12) within 24 hours.
- 12-month move: ~$30 (Jan 2025) → $121 (Jan 2026) (~300%).
- Trigger cited: large CME margin increases (≈67% increase over 3 days) → forced liquidations and heavy selling during US hours.
- Market/fundamentals signals during the crash:
- Perth Mint suspended silver sales until Feb 23.
- US Mint sharply repriced Silver Eagles (reported +86% overnight, from $91 → $169).
- Shanghai vaults reported a withdrawal of ~27 tonnes in one day.
- Lease rates spiked to ~39%.
- Physical premiums reported at ~60% (Japan) and ~40% (Dubai).
- Real-world buyers reportedly paying $110–$120 while the paper price showed $73.
Tickers / assets / entities mentioned
- Physical silver: coins (Silver Eagles), bars.
- Paper silver: SLV (ETF example), COMEX futures.
- Institutions/venues: CME, Perth Mint, US Mint, Shanghai vaults/markets.
- Metrics/instruments: lease rates, physical premiums.
Actionable plans & decision rules
If you hold physical silver (coins/bars)
- Primary call: do nothing — hold. Physical is treated as long-term insurance/hedge; ignore paper-price volatility.
- Exception (adding to stack): only buy if both conditions are met:
- Spot retests $75–$80 (Asian/European hours), AND
- Local dealer inventory exists at premiums under 25% (avoid 40–60% desperation pricing).
- Practical tip: check price at most once per day.
If you hold paper silver (SLV / futures / options)
- Key caution: paper is a derivative — presenter warns that in extreme stress “paper can go to zero.”
- Risk-averse rule:
- Exit paper on any bounce to ~$90+ this week; take profits and move to physical or cash.
- Risk-tolerant / trader rule:
- Bullish confirmation: silver must reclaim $95 by Wednesday, Feb 4 — then target $100–$120 by end of next week.
- Failure condition: if silver fails to hold $80 and breaks below $75 → exit immediately (cut losses).
- General guidance: paper products for traders, not long-term holders (per presenter).
If you sold during the crash (panic sellers)
- Do not chase the rebound. Wait for confirmation:
- If price breaks back below $75 → your sell was likely correct.
- If silver breaks above $95 and holds → accept you missed it; wait for the next pullback. Avoid revenge/FOMO trades.
If you do not own silver (new buyers)
- Do not go all-in. Scale in across three entry bands to average in:
- Entry 1: $80–$83 (if immediate pullback).
- Entry 2: $73–$76 (retest of lows).
- Entry 3: $65–$70 (deeper flush).
Week-ahead timeline / decision checkpoints
- Sunday night / Asian hours:
- Watch Asian trading; bullish sign if silver pushes >$90 during Asian hours. Red flag if it dumps.
- Monday, Feb 2 (US open):
- Watch the first hour of the NY session — key level: $88.
- If breaks/holds >$88 → target $95. If fails at $88 and dumps → retest $75 possible.
- Tue–Wed, Feb 3–4:
- Midweek is a decision zone. Close above $95 by Wednesday = bullish continuation (targets $105–$110 by week end).
- Wednesday close below $85 = failed bounce → expect retest of $73 or lower.
- Thu–Fri, Feb 5–6:
- Follow-through or breakdown. Above $95 → momentum to $110+. Below $80 → deeper correction; supports at $70 then $65.
- Three emphasized decision points: Monday open, Wednesday close, Friday follow-through.
Support & resistance (explicit)
- Resistance (upside): $90, $95 (key), $105, $115, $125.
- Support (downside): $82 (bounce intact if >82), $78 (key; below → likely retest $73), $73, $65, $60.
- Presenter rule of thumb: trade the range until it breaks; buy near support, sell near resistance; avoid impulsive buys on breakouts or sells on breakdowns.
Risk management / cautions
- Do not use leverage, do not trade futures, do not use margin — volatility can destroy leveraged positions.
- Check price only twice a day (presenter suggested once or twice) to reduce emotional trading.
- Avoid permabull/permabear narratives; trade the reality in front of you.
- Mental-health reminders: set alerts, take breaks, exercise, and have a written plan.
Macro / fundamental stance
- Presenter view: the silver bull market is NOT over — this is a correction within a bull.
- Structural factors cited: supply shortages (mint constraints, withdrawals), ongoing industrial demand (solar, EVs, 5G).
- Short-term outlook: choppy / rangebound trading between ~$65–$100 for weeks is likely; a full recovery to prior highs could take months.
Explicit recommendations / calls to action (summary)
- Physical holders: hold; only add if premiums <25% and spot conditions met.
- Paper holders: define your risk tolerance; conservative exit at ~$90; traders look for reclaim of $95 by Wednesday to stay long.
- New buyers: scale in across three bands (80–83; 73–76; 65–70).
- Key checkpoints: Monday open, Wednesday close, Friday follow-through.
Performance / metrics cited
- 12-month rise: $30 → $121 (~300%).
- One-day crash: $121 → $73 (~$48, ~39%).
- Immediate bounce: $73 → $85 (+$12).
- CME margins: ~67% increase over 3 days (per video).
- Lease rates: spiked to ~39%.
- Physical premiums: up to ~60% (Japan), ~40% (Dubai).
- Shanghai vault withdrawal: ~27 tonnes in one day.
- Claimed 5-year supply deficit: ~800 million ounces.
Disclosures / disclaimers reported
- Presenter stated he will never ask for money or pitch courses and warned viewers about scams using his name.
- No formal legal securities/financial-advice disclaimer was quoted verbatim; presenter framed recommendations as practical instructions, not a sales pitch.
Presenters / sources
- Presenter: John (“your Asian guy”) — primary analyst and plan author.
- Referenced entities: CME, COMEX, Perth Mint, US Mint (Silver Eagles), Shanghai vaults, SLV (ETF example).
Category
Finance
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