$12,500 Week — Why I'm Not Satisfied (Road to $2.5M Ep. 6)

What the Video Is About

• The speaker documents a prop-trading week using “proper” prop firm accounts.
• The core target is price mean-reversion (“fair price”), centered around specific intraday reference points—especially:
  • 6 p.m.
  • Asian open
  • New York AM
  • pre-news price
• They stress risk optimization via a dashboard that maps each prop account to an optimal take-profit size and stop/risk configuration.
• Week performance highlights:
  • The speaker notes: $12,500 in payouts for the week, described as below target to reach another $1M from prop firms.
  • Several days include win/loss counts (e.g., Monday 8 wins / 5 losses, Wednesday weaker with 4 losses, Thursday strong, Friday mixed).

Core Trading Framework / Methodology

Defining “Fair Price” (Reversion Anchors)

• Default anchors:
  • 6 p.m. open is treated as early “fair value.”
• Regime shifts:
  • If price breaks down/up and the session opens at a new level, they “delete 6 p.m.” and treat the next relevant session anchor as fair (e.g., Asian open / 8 p.m. / pre-news).
• News events (CPI/PPI):
  • Fair price becomes the pre-news price after CPI/PPI shocks.
  • The speaker claims news is “priced in,” so price tends to revert if results differ from expectations.

Trade Setup Types

• Displacement candle entry
  • Enter after a large directional move (used repeatedly in their evaluation examples).
• Break of structure entry
  • Enter when price breaks key prior levels (highs/lows/wick levels)—i.e., structure breaks.
• Continuation trades
  • Sometimes taken when the opening candle is green/red and follow-through is expected, but reversion bias is often preferred when the setup supports it.

Reversion Bias Logic

• Gap bias concept:
  • Gaps are used as a visual cue for bias toward reverting toward the session open level.
  • They caution that a gap does not necessarily fill tick-for-tick.

Risk Targeting Using the Account Dashboard

• They simulate outcomes and determine that each prop account “needs” a specific number of points (examples given: accounts needing 50 / 25 / 70 points).
• They then choose the trade’s placement such that the points in their favor align with the account’s required take-profit.

Profit/Loss Structure (Templates, Risk-to-Reward, and “Points”)

Common Eval Presets

• Many continuation/reversion evals reference:
  • ~1 to 1.5 risk-to-reward
• A recurring preset is 38.25
  • The speaker mentions “layer trades so they’re all 38.25” for eval-style consistency.

When Favorable Points Are Smaller

• If points in favor are smaller (example: around 15 points), they adjust using patterns like 19 / 12.5.
• They also adjust contracts so dollar exposure stays comparable.

Live/Funded vs Prop Firm Precision

• For live/funded accounts, they sometimes trade “to the tick” (example: “exactly 56 and a half points”).
• They explicitly warn against doing that same precision on prop firms.

Scaling / Layering

• They may layer multiple entries in the same direction as additional structure breaks occur, even while already in a trade.
• Contract sizing can effectively alter the point targets:
  • If stop-loss settings can be changed via contract sizing, then a base “risk template” can target larger moves (e.g., converting a 25-point risk template into larger target concepts like 50 / 100 / 150 through doubling contract size).

Timing Discipline

• They often stop around 9:30 (sometimes called “deleting 9:30”).
• They admit sometimes trading slightly late out of greed, and sometimes missing the best entries.

Key Instruments / Tickers Mentioned

• No specific stock/ETF/crypto tickers are named.
• The only explicit “instrument-like” references are macro event types:
  • CPI
  • PPI
• The strategy is applied to a price chart (implied futures/prop style).

Notable Macro Context

News-Driven Reversion (CPI/PPI)

• Major volatility days are attributed to CPI and PPI.
• The speaker’s rule-of-thumb:
  • If results deviate less than expected, price should revert.
  • Even if deviation exists, price still reverts in the long run.

Friday Last-Hour Effect

• In the last hour of Friday, institutions allegedly hedge options via futures positioning, causing a directional volume spike.
• The strategy expects reversion back toward the price before the volume spike (an “unfair move” followed by a correction).

Key Numbers, Timelines, and Explicit Guidance

Money and Performance

• $12,500 payouts during the week (Episode 6).

Example Point Targets and Trade-Sizing References

• Reversion/selection examples include:
  • 65 points in my favor → choose the prop account needing ~70 points.
• Point targets cited throughout:
  • 100, 90, 57, 76, 41, 32, 26, 16, 14, 85, 75, 125
• Small precision details also appear, like being off by 0.25 (loss mentioned by 0.25).

Stop/TP Patterns and Templates

• Evals commonly use:
  • 38.25 with 1 to 1.5 risk-to-reward.
• They mention switching templates (example shown):
  • From 2538 to 5076 (implying different stop/TP templates depending on candle size).

Timing Windows / Sessions

• Asian session open
• 6 p.m.
• New York AM
• 8 p.m.
• 9:30 end-of-trading threshold
• References to 11:00, 2 p.m. / 3 p.m., and last hour of Friday

Cautions / Guidance

• Accuracy caution:
  • “Doing it to the exact fair price… like exactly 65 points, is what you should do on a live account. Definitely not on prop firms.”
• Prop-firm variability:
  • Losses can be driven by fees (including ETH fees) if risk is structured correctly.
• Dashboard-first approach:
  • Use simulations/dashboard outputs to match account profit targets to points-in-favor rather than forcing trades.

Disclosures / Disclaimers

• No explicit legal disclaimer (“not financial advice”) is shown in the provided subtitles excerpt.
• Compliance-style constraints appear implicitly, including prop-firm limitations such as restrictions around:
  • copy trading
  • group trading on YouTube

Presenter / Source Attribution

• Presenter: The speaker (name not provided in the subtitles).
• Other person mentioned: Jeremy (referenced as being coached; intro expected in a separate video).