MBS Was Told to Choose Israel, or Pakistan&Turkey What Trump’s ‘Very Helpful’ Remark Means for Saudi

Summary

The discussion centered on Saudi Arabia’s security choices and the changing balance of power in West Asia.

Trump’s Comments and Israel’s Role

The speakers discussed Trump’s reported remark that Israel had been “very helpful” to Saudi Arabia and his stated interest in the kingdom joining the Abraham Accords.

Analyst Pravin Sawhney interpreted this as evidence of a wider, Israeli-led regional security framework. He claimed Israeli officers help coordinate Saudi missile defense alongside Saudi personnel, using information from U.S. radars and systems that include Israeli Arrow interceptors and American THAAD. These were presented as Sawhney’s analysis, not as independently established facts.

MBS’s Dilemma

Sawhney argued that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman faces pressure to choose between closer alignment with Israel and a regional collective-security approach involving Pakistan and Turkey.

Host Zulfiqar Ali said Pakistani sources told him that MBS had been given that choice, that Pakistan and Turkey would participate only in a defensive role, and that Saudi Arabia had asked Israeli personnel to leave. Ali added that he believes Israeli influence remains behind the scenes. These claims were attributed to his sources and could not be verified during the discussion.

Collective Security and Regional Stability

Sawhney described the Makkah Defense Alliance as a possible fallback for Gulf states, with Pakistan and Turkey playing important roles. He argued that Iran’s stated aim is collective security rather than regional domination.

Both speakers warned that a weakening of MBS could trigger a struggle among Saudi factions and destabilize the Gulf.

Pakistan, Russia, China, and Regional Ties

The speakers cited recent Russian and Omani visits to Pakistan, closer Pakistan–Iran relations, and growing ties with China as signs of a shifting regional order. Sawhney said improved relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan could support wider trade and security arrangements. Both suggested China’s influence could grow as U.S. dominance recedes.

Energy and U.S. Power

Sawhney said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was expected to visit Indian refinery hubs, including Jamnagar and Mumbai. He connected the visits to U.S. interest in processing crude from sources such as Russia and Venezuela.

Ali argued that the petrodollar system is weakening and questioned who would continue buying U.S. debt, which he put at roughly $40 trillion. He predicted that the United States could lose its status as the dominant global power.

Prospects for Renewed Conflict

Sawhney said he expected the U.S.–Iran conflict could resume after the U.S. midterm elections. He argued that Washington had used up many of its military options, while Iran had drawn lessons from earlier fighting.

He also warned that a conventional “mother of all bombs” would not defeat Iran and that nuclear use would be disastrous.

Presenters and Contributors

• Zulfiqar Ali — Host
• Pravin Sawhney — Analyst