Larry Johnson:The MOAB Can’t Crack Iran. No One Can Save MBS. Europe Will Regret It.NO RESCUE

Summary

Larry Johnson and host Zulfiqar Ali discussed escalating tensions involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s Ansar Allah movement, and Russia, along with possible political and economic consequences.

US Policy Toward Russia

Johnson said a US statement at a UN Security Council Arria-formula meeting sounded less confrontational toward Russia than earlier remarks. He interpreted this as a possible shift away from strong support for Ukraine toward a more neutral stance.

Johnson contrasted the US and UK remarks with sharply critical comments from Denmark, Latvia, Greece, and France. He predicted that Europe could start a conflict with Russia that it would later regret.

The MOAB and Iran

Johnson argued that the roughly 11-ton MOAB is not a bunker-buster and would not reach or destroy the facility beneath Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain. He described a scenario proposed by Scott Ritter in which the US could drop the bomb, declare its mission accomplished, and withdraw.

Johnson said that without such an arrangement, a US attack could prompt Iranian strikes on US and allied military assets across the region. Both speakers said Iran appeared prepared to retaliate, while acknowledging they could not confirm whether an attack was imminent.

Ansar Allah and Saudi Arabia

Johnson said Ansar Allah was continuing attacks in Yemen and on Saudi targets, and described its strike on Aden’s presidential palace as a sophisticated operation. He argued that Saudi Arabia had been unable to stop the attacks.

The speakers also said that Riyadh’s airport and oil infrastructure had been struck. These claims were presented in the discussion and were not independently verified there.

Pakistan and MBS

Ali said his sources in Islamabad told him Pakistan had decided not to take offensive action against Ansar Allah. According to Ali, Pakistan would limit its role to protecting the holy sites in Mecca and Medina, despite repeated requests for help from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).

Ali also said Pakistani and Turkish military personnel had objected to Israeli officers being present in a Saudi war room and had pressured MBS to choose between their cooperation and Israel. These accounts were attributed to Ali’s sources and were not independently substantiated in the interview.

MBS’s Political Vulnerability

Both speakers portrayed MBS as increasingly isolated. Ali predicted that he could be forced from power, while Johnson said it was unclear whether any outside country could save him.

Johnson cited tensions with conservative clerics and members of the royal family, as well as Saudi financial ties to Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners, which he described as a potential conflict of interest. He suggested that a change in Saudi leadership and Chinese mediation could help bring about a settlement in Yemen.

China and Regional Alignments

Ali characterized Pakistan, Iran, and China as unusually closely aligned, saying Pakistan was supporting Iran’s objectives behind the scenes. Johnson said that without a US-Iran understanding, the conflict could become prolonged. He warned that a renewed US attack could end in a humiliating defeat for Washington.

On Israel, Johnson said a strike might be intended to provoke an Iranian response, but warned that Israel could underestimate the scale of Iran’s retaliation. Both speakers emphasized that rhetoric did not prove an attack would occur.

Economic Effects

Johnson said international competition for fuel could keep US diesel prices high, despite his claim that US refineries produce more diesel than the country consumes. He argued that food and fuel costs place a heavy burden on households but are excluded from some inflation measures.

He warned that even a rapid end to the crisis could leave harmful economic effects for at least two years, particularly if fuel and fertilizer disruptions affect agriculture.

Presenters and Contributors

• Zulfiqar Ali: Host
• Larry Johnson: Guest