BIG move coming for Bitcoin during CPI today? (the trade i'm taking)

Finance / Market Focus

• Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
• Macro/news driver: CPI today (described as high-impact red news)
• Trading context: The creator treats the current BTC price action as a range on lower time frames and emphasizes only executing during specific “kill zones” (time windows).

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Instruments / Levels / Tickers Mentioned

Bitcoin (BTC) levels (approx.)

• $60K — potential downside target if breakout fails
• $50K — potential downside target; next weekly liquidity level
• $100,000 — upside target on confirmed breakout
• $81,800 — order block begins / bearish scenario context
• $81,000 — alternative starting point for the order block area
• $82,600 — key “level to watch” for bearish confirmation (requires an 1H close beneath)

Other tickers

• No other tickers/ETFs/stocks/bonds/commodities were explicitly mentioned.

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Methodology / Framework (Step-by-Step)

1) Bias setup (higher timeframe)

• Bullish weekly bias
• Price is retesting a weekly liquidity level after previously sweeping it.
• From that level, two scenarios are considered:

1. False breakout / reversal
   • Move down toward $60K
   • Possibly further toward $50K
2. Confirmed breakout
   • Consistent volume above the level
   • Push toward $100K and “bull market back”

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2) Range-trading rules (lower time frames)

• Don’t trade in the middle of a range (“don’t DD in the middle”).
• Premium/discount within the range:
  • Premium: above the range high → better area to consider shorts
  • Discount: below the range low → better area to consider longs
• Execution constraints by direction:
  • Longs: can’t be taken until range lows are swept
  • Shorts: generally make more sense near the premium side (often after a sweep of highs, or at a defined order block depending on the setup)

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3) Trade timing (“kill zones”)

The creator only wants execution within:

• London kill zone: 2:00 a.m. to 5:00 a.m.
• New York kill zone: 7:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. (New York time)

They provide an example: a short at about ~5:00 a.m. is outside their preferred kill zones, so they avoid it.

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4) News-window timing (high-probability windows)

• Since news is at 8:30, start watching from 7:30.
• Define the highest-probability “window” as:
  • 1 hour before news to 1 hour after news

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Key Numbers, Recommendations, and Cautions

Primary recommendation / stance for the day

• The creator says: “I don’t think there’s a very solid trade opportunity on Bitcoin for today.”
• They would prefer to take trades in Forex unless BTC offers a clean setup.

Directional triggers for BTC (bearish-focused plan if trading)

• Trigger level: $82,600
• Bearish confirmation: require a 1-hour candle close beneath $82,600
  • Interpreted as confirming a bearish “CISD” (creator’s terminology; implied bearish break/confirmation)
  • Also implies liquidity has been tapped
• If bearish confirmation occurs:
  • Look for a retrace, then continuation down

Alternative bearish path (liquidity sweep condition)

• BTC must sweep range lows but not close below them
  • i.e., a liquidity sweep followed by a return upward toward the range high

News impact expectation

• With high-impact CPI, volatility should be higher and clean moves more likely.
• They also note that signals are mixed (daily bias vs lower-timeframe signals).

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Disclosures / Disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer was included in the provided subtitles.

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Presenter / Sources

• Presenter: Schwen
• Mentions (embedded in commentary): “AOC”
  • Referred to as the origin of the quote “don’t DD in the middle”
  • No additional person was credited beyond this mention.