1117: Players to Avoid

The Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast (Episode 1117): 10 Fantasy Players to Avoid

The episode focuses on 10 fantasy players to avoid because they are overvalued by the market—not necessarily “full fades,” but players the hosts believe are being drafted too high relative to risk and role/efficiency concerns.

---

Jonathan Taylor (RB, Colts) — avoided for price/efficiency volatility

• The hosts acknowledge Taylor’s production signals (including leading the NFL in rushing attempts and rushing TDs) and that he previously accounted for 85% of Indianapolis backfield touches.
• The concern: Taylor’s fantasy output is tied to team success, and the Colts’ results can swing his production.

PPR scoring history cited

• RB1 scoring seasons: 4 of 6
• In wins: 22.7 PPR points/game (career)
• In losses: RB15 in losses; example cited of a major split (e.g., 32 PPR in wins vs. 12.3 PPR in losses)

2026 environment concerns

• Colts early schedule is described as very difficult, including matchups vs.:
  • Baltimore, Kansas City, Houston
  • An international game vs. Washington
  • Plus Pittsburgh on a short week
• Alec Pierce impact on Taylor’s rushing environment:
  • With Pierce off the field: Taylor faces fewer box constraints
  • With Pierce on the field: box presence increases
  • (Percentages/sample size referenced)

Projection take

The hosts prefer alternatives such as James Cook, Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley, and Kenneth Walker, viewing Taylor as more of a lower-floor RB1 with limited growth.

---

Courtland Sutton (WR, Broncos) — avoided due to limited ceiling with added competition

• Sutton is framed as a “single”/non–home run type rather than a mid-round high-upside target.

Role + target issues

• Averaged <13 PPR points/game last year in a beatable receiving environment
• Last year:
  • 21% target share
  • Targets per run rate described as under 20%

Added competition

• The addition of Jaylen Waddle is presented as a major downgrade
• Waddle is described as taking over a similar X/Z role, changing Sutton’s matchup and depth-of-target profile

Route/efficiency context

• Sutton ran the third-most routes
• But produced around 1,000 yards and is described as inefficient by route/run efficiency metrics

Takeaway

Don’t draft Sutton for weekly upside—his ADP is too high for the perceived ceiling.

---

De’Von Achane (RB, Dolphins) — avoided for scheme/availability fragility and unstable passing ceiling

• Achane is described as Miami’s best offensive weapon, but his value is argued to be vulnerable to quarterback/scheme changes.

Evidence cited

• Achane’s production drops without Tua Tagovailoa, based on historical comparisons across games:
  • With Tua: higher PPR output
  • Without Tua: fewer RB1 weeks and lower average PPR

Market/environment context

• The episode argues the Dolphins’ offense is projected to be significantly weaker
• Draft guide/team environment metrics are used to suggest Miami is a low-hit-rate environment for top-10 RB ADP outcomes

Conclusion

Achane can still finish as an RB1 sometimes, but the hosts expect a volatile weekly RB2 and prefer more stable options.

---

J.K. Dobbins (RB, Broncos) — avoided due to ambiguous role and limited receiving upside

• Similar logic to Sutton: Dobbins is framed as a limited-through-role producer rather than a home-run archetype.

Receiving/routing concerns

• When healthy last year:
  • Ran routes on only about 30% of dropbacks
  • Had a low target share

Backfield ambiguity

• Jonah Coleman is expected to cap Dobbins’ workload and keep him from heavy usage
• The hosts don’t expect meaningful improvement in pass-catching role

Availability/health risk

• Injuries are repeatedly referenced as compounding the risk

Preference

Depending on cost, the hosts prefer players like R.J. Harvey, Jordan Mason, or Chris Rodriguez—with Dobbins viewed as a poor opportunity spend.

---

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR, Jaguars) — avoided for role mismatch + brutal early schedule

• After a disappointing “down second season,” the hosts suggest Thomas Jr. isn’t positioned for consistent weekly fantasy scoring.

Role/target quality concerns

• Expected to play primarily X
• A tougher downfield/air-yard profile limits “smoothing” targets
• Late-season usage suggests a high share of targets 20+ yards downfield, increasing volatility

Schedule argument

• Early schedule includes top-tier secondaries such as:
  • Denzel Ward, Patrick Surtain, Christian Gonzalez, Derek Stingley, Sauce Gardner, etc.
• The hosts suggest he may be unreliable in managed leagues, where weekly lineup certainty matters

Best-ball vs. managed leagues

• Risk is presented as higher in managed formats
• Some hosts note they might release him later in certain league formats

---

Matthew Stafford (QB, Rams) — avoided as a “reach” for low-end QB1 pricing

• Stafford is priced too aggressively (discussed around QB8 range on ESPN).

Core argument: TD-rate regression

• His last season touchdown rate is described as an outlier likely to regress

Historical context

• Since 2014, the show references past QB cases where similar TD-rate patterns later improved or reverted
• The hosts still believe Stafford’s ADP fails to properly price the regression risk

“Compare vs. Goff” angle

• The hosts claim there’s little projection gap between Stafford and Jared Goff
• But Goff is priced later, making him better value

---

Patrick Mahomes (QB, Chiefs) — avoided at his current “cheapest Mahomes” ADP

• The hosts recognize Mahomes’ appeal and affordability, but argue his passing efficiency has been down recently.
• (Completion rate, yards/attempt, TD rate, and interception rate stats are referenced.)

Regression risk to rushing

• Mahomes’ rushing spike last year may not repeat
• Added concern: he’s coming off an ACL

Offensive environment and weapons

• Chiefs passing may not have the same ceiling guarantee without consistent efficiency
• Questions remain about how new/younger receiver pieces and WR-room dynamics translate

Schedule/usage concerns

• Early matchups and by-week planning complications are mentioned as factors that can reduce reliability as a weekly starter

Takeaway

Wait for better options instead of paying the “easy-button” narrative.

---

Trayon Henderson (RB, Patriots) — avoided due to role uncertainty and ADP opportunity cost

• The hosts admit Henderson has talent and big-play potential and note last year’s misvaluation.
• But they expect Raheem/Raandre Stevenson to remain the lead/primary early.

Play-call/snap/target evidence cited

Playoff usage is referenced showing Stevenson dominating:

• Snap share
• Target share
• Route share

Pass-protection limitation

• Stevenson’s pass protection is framed as limiting Henderson’s third-down usage and usage behind the line

Opportunity cost

• Henderson is viewed as being drafted where better receivers or higher-upside RBs should be available later

Conclusion

Henderson only makes more sense if he falls significantly; otherwise Stevenson is preferred.

---

Arizona Cardinals (team-wide) — avoided for overall team environment + schedule + regression risk

This is not a single-player “cheat code,” but an argument to avoid the Cardinals offense as a group.

Major reasons

• The Cardinals are described as not favored in any game entering the year
• They’re projected to score low
• A harsh schedule is outlined (opening opponents listed)
• Home/away splits are emphasized as not providing enough early favorable matchups

“Unrepeatable season” argument

• 2025 injuries and circumstances are called unsustainable
• Trey McBride’s route volume is highlighted as historically extreme (compared to other tight ends)
• Michael Wilson’s target/route relationship is framed as changing based on game-state personnel (splits when marquee players are on the field)

Fantasy playoff “firewall”

• The hosts suggest a fantasy playoff bet depends on Carson Beck (and/or the passing system) performing late-season
• That’s framed as a weak bet unless the team is competitive

Host discussion note

• There is some agreement that investing elsewhere is safer (e.g., Brock Bowers context referenced)

---

Tony Pollard (RB, Titans) — avoided for inefficient “dead zone” production profile and volume risk

• Pollard is described as a “next tier down” RB archetype—one often drafted as if volume will rescue him, but the hosts question the assumption.

Efficiency and target-share concerns

• Yards per run rate below 0.8 for multiple straight years is cited as predictive warning
• Target share dipped (example cited: 8%)

Dependency on teammate health

• The hosts suggest Taj Spears staying healthy could change Pollard’s workload and role
• Spears’ pass-catching is mentioned (including preseason usage context)

Confidence in alternatives

• The hosts prefer Stevenson and other RBs in the range
• “Glue” insulation is discussed as something to use only in specific draft structures

Conclusion

Pollard is viewed as too often priced such that the opportunity cost is high versus better upside or better receiving profiles.

---

Presenters / Sources

• JJ Zachar (host)
• Rich Rebar — Sharp Football Analysis
• Podcast network reference: iHeart podcast