[LIVE] Pre-Market Prep – GAP UP – The war ends... AGAIN! – SPACE X IPO TODAY

Market / Macro Setup (Today: Fri, June 12)

SpaceX IPO timing (major driver)

• Major event: SpaceX IPO pricing / “go live” expected ~9:50–10:00 a.m.
  • This is earlier than typical 12:00–1:00 p.m. IPO listing.
• Host caution:
  • If SpaceX is live around 9:50, expect extra price reaction around 10:00 when macro prints hit.
  • If SpaceX is live exactly at 10:00, then “all bets are off.”

Economic calendar (10:00 a.m. window)

• Consumer sentiment
• Inflation expectations (preliminary read emphasized)

Next week context

• Headline risk: Potential for the Iran deal to “start to fall apart” (weekend risk).
• Monday (no major red-flag data planned):
  • Mentions Empire State Manufacturing, capacity utilization, industrial production
• Main event: FOMC (first with new Fed chair Kevin Worsh, mentioned)

Fed expectations (FedWatch)

• ~98.6% odds of a pause
• Rate hikes priced further out (host frames it as “splitting hairs” between roughly 44% / 43% / 42% probabilities)
  • Shift from December → ~January

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Rates, Commodities, and Geopolitics

U.S. futures (pre-market)

• Dow futures: +71 bps
• S&P futures: +60 bps
• NASDAQ futures: +54 bps
• Noted oddity: “Risk-on” pattern where the Dow outperforms NASDAQ, which is atypical versus expectations.

Oil

• Oil futures down ~309 bps, around $85/barrel
• Host cites a “big deceleration” after news that Iran accepted a proposal / potential peace deal.
• Geopolitical risk remains:
  • 60-day window to resolve nuclear (“nukes”) components
  • Market could reverse if the nuclear hurdle fails

Rates (10-year)

• 10-year yield up mildly (around ~4.473%, +0.8 bps)
• Caution: If oil keeps sliding meaningfully (toward ~$60), host expects downward pressure on rates, which would likely support risk assets.

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Index / ETF Tickers and Instruments Referenced

Equity index derivatives

• ES futures (S&P 500 E-mini)
• NQ futures (Nasdaq-100)

ETFs / equity funds

• QQQ (“Spiders” referenced; also “spiders cash”)
• IWM (Russell 2000)
• XLF (financials ETF)

Volatility

• VIX (host mentions “VIX compressing” as bullish for tidy trend behavior)

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IPO / Space Theme Trading Notes

• Host’s framing: SpaceX demand may pull broader “space stocks.”
• Caution against confusing the SpaceX IPO with other space tickers.
  • Example of “misunderstanding”-driven move: SPCE = Virgin Galactic
• Repeated emphasis: IPO trading requires a plan; otherwise it becomes “dart throwing.”
• Mentioned context points (no execution details):
  • SpaceX ~ $1.75T valuation
  • Possible gap up implied (oversubscription suggested)
  • Valuation could pressure toward ~$2T

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Specific Tickers Explicitly Called Out (Alphabetical-ish)

Space / rockets

• RKLB (Rocket Lab)
• CRWV (CoreWeave)
• TER (Pterodine)
• SPCE (Virgin Galactic) (mentioned)
• ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) (mentioned)
• ALAB (mentioned; host said “Alab,” context suggests a space/AI-related ticker)

NASDAQ 100 inclusion (host list)

• Added / referenced:
  • ENBIS / NBIS (spelled oddly; likely “Enbis/Nebus” from context)
  • ALAB
  • RKLB
  • CRWV
  • TER

Major tech / “core list”

• NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL
• AMD, INTC, AVGO (Broadcom mentioned as “not interested”)
• TSLA
• MU
• META (macro/news section mention)

Other / discretionary / financials

• ADBE (Adobe)
• RH (Restoration Hardware)
• LAR (homebuilders referenced; host said “LAR homebuilders,” likely Lennar context)
• CCL, RCL (Carnival / Royal Caribbean)
• KTOS (defense stock)
• ORCL (Oracle)
• VISA (mentioned as “VISA”; PYPL not mentioned)
• H (Honeywell referenced as “H”)
• SMCI
• SATS
• PLTR (explicitly not mentioned)
• Q (explicitly not mentioned)
• Coinbase (“Coinbase” mentioned; no ticker given)
• HOOD (Robinhood)

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Earnings / Company-Specific Notes

• Adobe (ADBE):
  • Described as “smashed” and downgraded by at least two firms
  • Host suggests downgrades are “more likely as the day progresses”
  • Even with “okay numbers,” stock “not fairing well”
• Meta:
  • Mentions dismantling a “$2 billion” facility on Beijing’s orders (interpretation unclear)
• Rocket Lab (RKLB):
  • Positive framing due to NASDAQ 100 addition and gap-up behavior
  • More of a positioning catalyst than fundamentals
• Figma:
  • Noted taking market share and affecting competitive dynamics
  • Host: “Figma is public now”
• Tesla board comment (as relayed):
  • “SpaceX needs to achieve two of its three moonshots to keep its valuation.”
  • Used as valuation-risk linkage commentary

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Chart-Based Framework & Explicit Levels (Key Numbers)

ES (S&P) key levels / thesis

Bull “line in the sand”

• 7365
  • If ES stays above 7365: host expects the hourly uptrend to hold/return
  • If fails below 7365: higher probability of two-sided trade and potential to close lower (bull thesis less valid)

Additional reference levels

• 7420s: previous day high / reference support-resistance area
• 7300 area: described as less important than 7365
  • Hourly inflection suggested around ~7285–7290
• 7245: “Tuesday low” scenario
  • If you see “wick below 7245,” it would be framed as “repair the bottom / excess low”
  • Lower odds (dotted line path)
• Technical idea: “scene of the crime”
  • Host implies rally attempts may target the breakdown origin

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NQ (Nasdaq) key levels / thesis

• 28,835: weekly inflection / key hold
• ~29,115+ : neckline area
• ~29,750: overnight high / Tuesday open area
• If trending breaks down:
  • 28785 referenced as key origin on a 2-minute chart
• Downside “flush point”:
  • ~28,600
  • Broader downside zone around 286.xx depending on tolerance

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QQQ (“Spiders cash”) key levels

• ~73,815: neckline / support
• ~74,350: target / rebound area
• Bear trigger: under ~73,225
• Host note: sequencing matters
  • prefers higher-high then higher-low vs immediate failure

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IWM (Russell 2000) key level

• ~2900: key support
  • As long as IWM stays above ~2900, host expects bullish tailwind
• “2,900” reiterated as the key level to maintain

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Methodology / Step-by-Step Framework Shared (Explicit)

“3.5 questions” for opening / overnight positioning

Host repeats across instruments:

1. Where are we opening relative to the previous day’s range?
2. Where are we opening relative to the value area (fair value box)?
3. Where are we opening relative to the overnight range (upper half vs lower half affects fade/risk-reward)?
4. Inventory framing: estimate net long vs net short inventory from overnight settlement
   • Host mentions math involving percentages (e.g., ~53.7 / 81.2%-style) and states net long % = 52.795% (repeating last digit “5”)

Timeframe “competition” approach

• ES 4-hour downtrend acknowledged (lower low), but hourly may be turning up.
• Look for a higher low on the lower timeframe to support a reversal narrative even if higher timeframe remains bearish.

Sequencing matters

• Better acceptance if the market makes a higher high before pulling back → then a later higher low is easier to accept.
• If it pulls back immediately, the higher low must prove quickly at key levels.

Pathing scenarios (bull/base vs bear/red flag)

• Bull path: holding 7365 (ES) / 28,835 (NQ), etc.
• Bear path: triggered if key levels break and/or closes occur below them.

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Risk Management / Cautions / Performance Metrics

Risk management cautions

• Don’t be overly aggressive on the bear side after 4-hour oversold structure.
• Stay within risk parameters; don’t size up irrationally, especially around IPO volatility.
• If trading the IPO without an IPO playbook: host recommends not trading and instead “enjoy the show.”

Performance metrics mentioned

• No broad performance table provided.
• One viewer performance report: +4R vs -3R last week (viewer message, not stated as a market-wide metric)

Geopolitical weekend caution

• Iran nuclear 60-day window creates uncertainty, framed as weekend risk.

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Disclosures / Disclaimers

• No explicit formal “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.
• Guidance is repeatedly framed as trading/risk commentary, with practical warnings against uninformed IPO trading.

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Presenters / Sources

• Presenter: primary speaker/host (name not given in the subtitles)
• Source mentioned: CNBC (for topline figures, earnings/calendar references, and IPO-related headlines)