AST SpaceMobile: Future of wireless or hype in orbit?

Finance / Markets: Macro Takeaways

• US inflation print: The S&P 500 pulled back from all-time highs after US inflation hit a nearly 3-year high (highest since May 2023).
  • Headline CPI: +6% month-over-month; 3.8% one-year pace
  • Core CPI (ex food & energy): 4%
  • Still 2.8% overall, but above the Fed’s target, raising questions about Fed policy under the next administration (“WASH” referenced).
• Energy/oil: Higher oil prices added to investor concerns.
• Additional geopolitics: Middle East diplomacy “stalling” referenced as part of the backdrop.

Companies / Securities Discussed (Tickers & Instruments)

• Index: S&P 500
• Stocks mentioned:
  • Nvidia (implied NVDA)
  • Apple (implied AAPL)
  • Micron Technology (implied MU)
  • AMD (AMD)
  • Intel (INTC)
  • SpaceMobile / AST SpaceMobile (spelled “ASD SpaceMobile”; debate centered on AST SpaceMobile)
  • Snowflake (SNOW, only briefly referenced)
  • Home Depot (HD)
  • Cerebra CBRS (IPO preview; ticker not provided)
  • SpaceX (private; not a ticker)
• Options instruments (on AST SpaceMobile):
  • Example strikes: $66 put, $75 call, $100 call, $60 put, $40 put
  • Example expiration: June 26 (for the $66 put example)

Key AST SpaceMobile (Debate) Points

Bear Case Arguments (Jason Nanak)

• Execution & commercialization gap
  • Described as pre-profit and “hemorrhaging cash”, with high technical/competitive hurdles
  • Valuation framed as “out of this world” and assuming near-perfect execution
• Financial losses / cash burn
  • 2025 net loss: $342 million
  • Operating expenses: $359 million
  • Reliance on external funding via convertible notes and equity offerings; risk of dilution
• Operational / deployment risk
  • Needs ~45–60 satellites by end of 2026 for meaningful commercial service
  • Satellite deployment issues referenced: one satellite “crashing back to Earth” / de-orbiting (described as a launch/risk issue)
• Competitive landscape
  • Larger capital bases/infrastructure of SpaceX (and referenced Amazon) create margin pressure
• Technical/chart-level bear view
  • Mentions $101 resistance and a long-form head-and-shoulders pattern
  • Notes a $25 pullback after confirmation of the pattern
  • After earnings-driven weakness, a bearish flag suggesting a measure-move toward the stock price level “before” the 2025 head-and-shoulders

Bull Case Arguments (Han Tan)

• Market problem / value proposition
  • Connectivity for underserved regions: “no towers… just your phone and the sky”
  • Framed as turning “dead zones into dollar zones”
• TAM & connectivity adoption
  • ~3.5 billion people (≈ 42% of the world population) with little/no mobile access
  • TAM stated as $1.1 trillion/year (as presented)
• Satellite/technology specifics
  • BlueBird satellites described as covering ~300 square miles, in LEO ~500 km altitude
  • Uses a specialized custom ASIC chip (mentioned)
  • Claims 5G broadband speeds around 120 Mbps
• Business model & monetization path
  • Partnership model with mobile network operators rather than building its own end-to-end network
  • Example operators cited: AT&T, Verizon, Telefonica, Bell Canada
  • 1.2 billion aggregate contracted revenue commitments (signed contracts, not just LOIs)
• Bullish chart setup
  • “Higher lows” forming a bullish base trend
  • Mentions a bull falling wedge as a bullish reversal pattern
  • Momentum indicators described as in a bullish momentum area (with price recently dipping below the base line)

Options Strategies Shared for AST SpaceMobile (With Numbers)

Disclosure (explicitly stated): Options trading carries high risk and may not suit all investors; strategies are educational.

Bear Trade (Directional Downside): Put

• Strategy: Buy a $66 put (example given)
• Support level: $67
• Premium example: Target premium around ~$6.50
• Expected move / timeline:
  • Expected move to June 26: ±$28
  • Profit zone example: stock down to about $59.40
• Risk framing:
  • Debit trade: max loss = upfront premium/outlay
  • Wide bid/ask mentioned around ~$6.60

Bear Alternative Risk-Management Idea

• Strategy: Bear put spread (sell something further out of the money)
• Trade-off: Lower break-even and premium, but caps downside profit

Bull Trade (Limited-Risk, Bullish Range): “Double Bull Spread” (Call + Put Components)

• Strategy described: A double bull spread combining a bull call spread and a bull put spread
• Call side:
  • Buy $75 call (expiring in the “July cycle,” stated as just shy of two months)
  • Sell $100 call
  • 25-point call spread
• Put side:
  • Sell $60 put (assignment risk mentioned)
  • Buy $40 put (to cap downside)
  • 20-point put spread
• Premium / cost:
  • Costs ~$3.50 overall (could be ~$3 depending on current stock price)
• Break-even / profit region:
  • Upside break-even about $78.50–$78
  • Max gain if stock reaches $100
    • Potential profit stated as difference ~$21.50 (i.e., $2,150 per 25-wide spread)
• Loss profile:
  • If price stays between $75 and $60, loses the net premium (example: -$350)
  • Max loss if price falls toward $40
    • Stated around cost + spread (example: ~$2,350)

Extended-Hours Market Tool (TD Platform Feature)

Jason’s framework for using extended hours in charts:

1. Switch chart aggregation: Daily → Hourly (or smaller, e.g., 5-minute)
2. In chart settings (gear icon), check “extended hours”
3. Use color coding:
   • PM session: coppery color
   • Pre-market session: green
   • Regular sessions: black

Goal: track after-hours/pre-market price action (monitoring workflow, not a strategy).

Nvidia Earnings Preview (Performance Metrics & Guidance)

• Earnings date: May 20 (Wednesday) (Q1 2025 / “Q127” referenced; likely a script typo)
• Expected EPS (as stated): $1.76 EPS, up 117%
• Revenue: $70.78–$70.9B range mentioned
• Profit datapoint:
  • HBM partner: SK hynix profits up 400% (ticker not provided)
• Key focus: guidance
  • Management guidance target: $1 trillion revenue through 2027 from Blackwell + Rubën AI platforms
  • Watch for potential upside to that number
• Theme: “Agentic AI”
  • Interest in raising data center guidance, especially CPU business
• Risks to watch:
  • Cost pressures, inventory concerns
  • Supply-chain impacts on margins
• AI stack expansion / investments:
  • Investments mentioned: $2.1B (iron… as part of partnership to deploy 5.5 gigawatts)
  • $2.7B investment with Corning for optics
• Chart/range move expectation:
  • Expected earnings move around ~$30–$35 either direction
  • Levels cited: ~$250 upside; ~$190 support downside; $215 as a retest level

Home Depot Earnings Preview (HD)

• Earnings date: May 19 (next Tuesday), before market open
• Margin guidance: Operating margins around 12.5% for 2026
• Product sourcing / tariffs:
  • More than half of products domestically sourced to support margins
• Customer mix:
  • Pro customers described as propping results
  • Pro segment up 1.3% in the last quarter
  • Average ticket size up 2.4% to just over $90
• Comparable sales / demand:
  • Guided flat around 2% for 2026
  • Any change would be “big news”
• EPS / revenue expectations (as stated):
  • EPS expected down to 3.41 (down ~3.9%)
  • Revenue expected up to ~$41.5B (script notes “by about a similar amount”)
• Chart levels:
  • Down ~25% from September highs
  • Potential measured move below $300
  • Important rebound level near $340
  • Formation: inverse cup and handle

Economic Calendar / “On the Radar”

• Inflation week:
  • CPI already released (today’s drop referenced)
  • PPI tomorrow (producer prices used to infer pass-through)
  • Retail sales also referenced
• US–China visit:
  • President Trump visiting China with Xi Jinping
  • Agenda includes AI and rare earth materials (trade-related)
  • Delegates referenced: Tim Cook and Elon Musk
• Fed leadership transition:
  • Fed chair swap referenced: Jerome (“Mr. Pal”) stepping down
  • Kevin Walsh nominated/confirmed midweek (as stated)
• IPO watch:
  • Cerebra CBRS scheduled for May 13 (script also says “tomorrow”)
  • Described as specialized chips for AI inference and advanced AI; “competes directly with Nvidia”
  • Expected as biggest share sale globally so far this year (cited via DLogic)

Disclosures / Cautions (Explicitly Stated)

• Not investment advice: Securities/strategies are for educational purposes only; no buy/sell/hold recommendations.
• Options risk: Options trading carries high risk, may not suit all investors, significant losses possible, and investors should assess risk tolerance and do their own due diligence.

Presenters / Sources Mentioned

• Greg Benell (host)
• Han (TD Direct Investing educational team; name partially garbled as “Han mean”)
• Jason Nanak (TD Direct Investing educational team)
• Platform/organization mentions:
  • TD Active Trader Live (TD Direct Investing)
  • CBOE Global Markets mentioned later for a future guest: Henry Schwarz (vice president market intelligence)
  • DLogic cited for IPO share-sale ranking/data