Schimbări în Transnistria? Ce planuri au rușii pentru perioada următoare? | Irina Tabaranu

Summary

Journalist Irina Tabaranu argues that the coming leadership change in Transnistria is likely to be carefully managed rather than genuinely competitive. She describes Vitalie Neagu, the expected successor to Vadim Krasnoselsky, as closely tied to the Sheriff business holding. Neagu is being presented publicly in advance, she says, while being kept away from unpopular issues such as the economic and energy crisis. In her view, the election will mainly simulate a democratic transfer of power.

Residents are more concerned about worsening economic conditions and whether they will have gas and heat in winter than about the election, Tabaranu says. Many are seeking work on Moldova’s right bank or abroad. She also says the authorities monitor and intimidate people who provide information to independent journalists, so Zona de Securitate relies on anonymous sources and takes steps to protect them.

Taxes and business in the region

The interview discusses protests against new Moldovan taxes and fees on businesses in the region. Tabaranu says participation was pressured and the protest was staged for television, with a relatively subdued turnout compared with earlier demonstrations. She argues that the measures are a belated attempt to end longstanding exemptions and that the revenue should be returned to residents through a convergence fund. At the same time, she criticizes Chișinău for failing to explain the changes clearly.

Moldova’s policy toward the separatist administration

Tabaranu argues that permitting the Rîbnița steel plant to operate and allowing opaque gas and banking arrangements help keep the separatist administration functioning. She questions why Chișinău continues to make concessions without securing meaningful progress toward reintegration, and calls for stronger use of Moldova’s legal and economic leverage.

She also suggests that companies in the region could eventually be brought into Moldova’s tax and social-insurance systems rather than simply abandoned if the current administration weakened.

Economy and closer ties with the right bank

The region’s economy remains dependent on Russian gas and financial support, but also on trade with the European Union, Tabaranu says. She cites more than 70% of exports going to the EU and nearly half to Romania. She criticizes the contradiction between anti-Romanian messaging on local television and the region’s reliance on Romanian and European markets.

Tabaranu also raises concerns about Sheriff owner Victor Gușan’s wealth and possible political influence, describing these as risks Moldova would need to address in any reintegration process.

More residents are working, shopping, and accessing services on the right bank, which Tabaranu sees as gradually bringing the communities closer. She points to Varnița’s growth and says economic hardship, rather than a sudden shift in political attitudes, is driving much of this movement. She hopes low participation in Transnistrian elections could signal residents’ dissatisfaction, while acknowledging that people may face pressure at work or through their children’s schools.

Security and Russian influence

Tabaranu rejects assurances that Transnistria no longer poses a threat. She cites the presence of Russian military forces, local security structures, and ammunition stocks, as well as restrictions on movement and the capacity to disrupt communications. She says Russian drones have fallen in the region but that Tiraspol’s media did not report the incidents.

In her assessment, Tiraspol has avoided openly joining the war largely because it fears nearby Ukrainian forces—not because Chișinău has persuaded it to stay out.

She also criticizes the circulation of Russian and pro-war history textbooks in the region, including materials that justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and questions why Chișinău allows them to enter through diplomatic channels.

Finally, Tabaranu describes Russian ambassador Ozerov’s appearance on Transnistrian state television and his assurances about gas supplies as a deliberate show of support for the separatist authorities. She argues that the unclear gas-supply arrangement can continue only while Russia and the other involved parties are willing to sustain it.

Presenters and contributors

• Nicolae Chicu — host
• Irina Tabaranu — journalist, Zona de Securitate