Video summary

الاجتماع الصباحى لجلسة يوم الاثنين 28-09-2026 (التحليل الفنى- البورصة المصرية)

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Finance-focused summary (EGX / technical analysis post-session report)

Presenter: Mustafa Raafat (Head of Technical Analysis, Astoool Securities Trading & Bond Brokerage Company)

Market recap (indices, flows, and activity)

  • EGX 30: closed down ~745 points to around 5,331 (the report also references levels such as ~53,000 and 53,700 in context of prior marks).
  • Trading values/volumes: very weak / below average, with ~7.5 billion EGP trading value (noted as the first time reaching ~7.5B since last year).

Behavioral / flow read

  • Institutions participation: ~18%
  • Individuals: ~82%
  • Individuals were net buyers around ~73 million EGP, but the report notes their buying is decreasing → interpreted as a loss of confidence/anxiety signal.
  • Foreign institutions: net sellers
  • Egyptian institutions: net sellers around ~231 million EGP
  • Arab institutions: also net sellers

Market psychology & confirmation framework (referenced)

  • “Market rises on a wall of anxiety.”
  • Anxiety should be measured using the highest-participation group → Egyptian individuals (~75% participation YTD).
  • Not sufficient alone: after anxiety, you also need:
    • the market to catch a trend / reverse direction
    • increasing momentum/acceleration
    • higher trading values and volumes
    • individuals treating dips as buy opportunities

Time horizon guidance

  • Short-term: the trend is turning/negative
  • Medium-term: the decline may become a chance to build positions after sharp corrections

Technical outlook & explicit index levels

EGX 30

  • Shifted to a very short-term downtrend
  • If main support breaks ~52,700: trend changes to sideways with expectation of further declines.

Major supports

  • ~52,800
  • ~49,500 to 50,000

Positive / retail confirmation condition

  • A clear rise above ~54,300 is treated as a retest / new signal (improving, but not yet fully “reassuring”).

EGX 70

  • Closed at session lows: ~1,967
  • Downside targets were hit; the fall is treated as a correction, but medium-term weakness is possible.

Rebound / medium-term buy interest (retracement logic)

  • Rough buy zone: ~18,500–19,000 (as referenced in EGX70 context)

Near-term stance

  • Still treated as a short-term downtrend until confirmation.

EGX 100

  • Closed around ~25,317
  • After breaking Thursday lows: shifted to a short-term downtrend

Confidence trigger / buy signal

  • Above ~26,500 (weekly view) → “new buy signal”
  • This implies the correction may be over, potentially toward new historical highs (God willing).

EGX 33 (Sharia index)

  • Still weak; “one last hope” short-term near:
    • ~6,000
    • ~1,377
  • If support breaks: further declines may return toward ~6,000.
  • Longer horizon message: be patient for a medium/long-term rebound.

Portfolio construction / risk management (explicit recommendations)

  • Avoid random trades; follow indicator direction and use stops.
  • No new long positions right now (repeated caution: “don’t catch the knife while it’s falling”).
  • Increase liquidity allocation:
    • Previously: 50% stocks / 50% liquidity
    • Now: ~70% liquidity / 30% stocks
  • Selling strategy in weakness:
    • If price rises away from stop-loss levels and stops weren’t hit → sell portions on rebounds
  • Main risk: very short-term/speculative investors (most impacted by volatility and downward swings)

Stock-by-stock technical calls (levels + actions)

Banking / financials

  • CIB (Commercial International Bank)

    • Support: 126–127 EGP (sideways medium-term)
    • Targets: 133, then 135 EGP
    • Invalidation: breaking 125 EGP negates optimism and could pressure EGX 30.

  • ADIB (Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank)

    • Held above ~49 EGP
    • Target: ~53–54 EGP

  • Housing & Development Bank / banking sector

    • Short-term support: ~105 EGP
    • Secondary support / target: ~116 EGP
    • Targets / resistance: ~122–124 EGP

  • Raya Holding

    • Broke ~6.70 support; short-term trend turns down
    • Positivity only if it rises back above ~7.25 (otherwise: sell/avoid longs)

  • Qalaa

    • Broke minor support, but direction remains upward unless below ~6.65–6.60
    • Target mentioned: up to ~7 EGP initially

  • OBI Financial Holding

    • Violent drop; key stopping levels broken
    • Down targets: ~86 EGP
    • Advice: sell on upward movements

Healthcare

  • Rameda
    • Broke key supports around ~5.70–5.60 (text includes garbled references)
    • Short-term trend remains down; vulnerable to more selling
    • Reduce holdings on rebounds
    • Resistance area mentioned with confusion in the text; key resistance appears around ~6.5 EGP
    • Possible downside zone referenced: ~8.4–9.4 EGP

Telecom / IT

  • Telecom Egypt
    • Held ~128 EGP support
    • Targets: 140, then 150 EGP
    • Use 128 as stop-loss / protection for very short-term positions

Construction / materials / real estate

  • Tabrascom Investment

    • Closed around ~2.10 EGP
    • Support/stop-loss levels appear garbled; key idea: main supports are still referenced near 2 and ~1.90–1.99 (with some OCR/translation errors)
    • Suggested buy order: ~2.0 EGP
    • Targets: 2.20, then 2.30–2.35

  • Cairo Poultry

    • Post-merger volatility; closed near ~9.53 EGP
    • New support: ~9.0–9.5 EGP
    • Advice: sell on any upward movement
    • Caution unless above ~9.40–9.50 EGP

  • Mansoura Poultry

    • Closed around ~2.44 EGP
    • Very short-term downtrend
    • Targets: 2.36 (initial), then ~2.13–2.20
    • No re-entry unless uptrend resumes; re-entry suggested around ~2.75 EGP

  • Egyptian Poultry

    • Broke ~10.30 EGP support; short-term negative
    • Sell on upward moves
    • Positivity requires above ~10.70

  • Juhayna

    • Tested around ~25.50 EGP
    • If it doesn’t close above 25 the next day: more selling pressure
    • Possible range: ~24.30–24.40

  • Delta Sugar

    • Near support: ~54.90–55.94 EGP
    • If breakdown continues: avoid building longs; wait for a rebound

  • Egypt Aluminum

    • Support: ~340–342 EGP
    • Resistance/high: ~362 EGP
    • No sell signal as long as above 340–342 (also mentions above 300 as a general “hope zone”)

  • Egypt Chemical Industries

    • Stop-loss broken; downtrend
    • No new buying
    • Positivity only if it breaks above ~49 EGP
    • Down targets: ~38–40 EGP

  • Abu Air Fertilizers

    • Close: ~86.50 EGP
    • Support: ~86.5–86.0
    • Higher target: ~95 EGP

  • Moboko (Mobico?)

    • Close: ~45 EGP
    • Critical support: ~43 EGP (if broken → more decline)
    • Positivity: reclaim ~47.48 EGP, then possible ~51.5 EGP

  • Ataqa

    • Holding around ~11.80–12.0 (support)
    • Initial target: ~12.87 EGP
    • Trend strength returns above ~12.90–13.70

  • Arab Metal Industries

    • Holding around ~13 EGP
    • If it breaks below 13: downtrend for metals/minerals
    • Targets: ~7–10 EGP

  • Talaat Moustafa Group

    • Support after bounce: ~88.70 EGP
    • If it breaks: target ~83–84 EGP

  • New Cairo Housing & Development

    • Support: ~7.60–7.50 EGP
    • Next major support: ~7.30 EGP
    • If it holds: targets toward ~8 EGP, then ~8.1, then ~8.2

  • Rascom for Development

    • Close: ~39.5 EGP
    • Must hold: ~39.0–39.2
    • If breaks: target ~36.5 EGP

  • GBI

    • Support (most important): ~1.5 EGP
    • Targets: ~6.8, then ~7.0

Textiles / durable goods

  • Capo (Cap)

    • Broke support ~8.85 EGP
    • Closed around ~6.8 EGP (garbled text)
    • Down targets: ~7.20 (initial), ~7.50 (main)

  • Arab Cotton Ginning

    • Strong support: ~13.64 EGP
    • If breaks: possible drop to ~12.5 EGP
    • Buy signal if rises above ~14.5 EGP

Shipping / industry

  • Elsewedy Electric

    • Broke supports ~114–115 EGP, closed around ~113 EGP
    • Advice: sell half now
    • If more pressure near ~105 EGP, sell the remainder
    • Positive only if rebounds above ~121 EGP

  • Sharm Dreams

    • One of the few strong movers; closed around ~86 EGP
    • New historical high mentioned near/around 86 EGP (note: subtitles contain inconsistency)
    • Holds as long as it stays above minor support ~83 EGP and main support ~76 EGP
    • Upside mentioned: 95 then 100
    • Despite upside: don’t establish long positions now

  • AMOC

    • Close: ~12.90 EGP
    • Support: ~12.80
    • If breaks below 12.80: sharp correction; downside ~11.50/11.40
    • Targets: 13.70, then 14.00

  • Crestmark

    • Close: ~3.5 EGP (very important support at 3.5)
    • If breaks: correction to ~2.87–2.85, then ~3.0

  • Al Nasr Civil Works

    • Very sharp decline noted
    • Key level referenced: ~7.17 EGP

Energy / infrastructure

  • Suez Canal Bank
    • Minor support: ~44.90–45 EGP

Timing / what to watch next

Immediate triggers (index reclaim levels)

  • EGX 30: reclaim ~54,300
  • EGX 100: reclaim ~26,500
  • EGX 33: hold ~6,000 / ~1,377

Until those triggers

  • Maintain higher liquidity
  • Prefer selling into rebounds
  • Use stop-loss discipline
  • Avoid new long exposure (especially for short-term/speculative horizons)

Disclosures / disclaimer

  • Report prepared from information believed accurate/reliable.
  • The presenter/participants are not legally responsible for investment decisions based on the report (buy/sell).

Presenters / sources

  • Mustafa Raafat — Head of Technical Analysis, Astoool Securities Trading and Bond Brokerage Company

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