Seyed M. Marandi: US-Iran War Inevitable: Kuwait and Bahrain May Fall

Summary

Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi argues that a renewed US–Iran war is likely because, in his view, Washington is not honoring a memorandum of understanding and has no viable way to pressure Iran into making concessions. He says Iran is preparing for a major confrontation and would respond forcefully to attacks on its leaders or infrastructure. He also warns that Israel could become involved, though he considers the timing and form of any US action uncertain.

Strait of Hormuz and regional escalation

Marandi portrays the Strait of Hormuz as a key source of Iranian leverage. He contends that Iran could disrupt shipping and energy supplies not only in the strait but across the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

In his assessment, attacks on Iranian infrastructure would invite retaliation against energy facilities in Gulf states. This could worsen shortages of oil, gas, and other commodities, potentially triggering a severe global economic crisis. He argues that even a limited US air campaign would not necessarily achieve a political victory if Iran refused to capitulate, while a ground operation would be costly and unlikely to meet its aims.

Yemen and Saudi Arabia

The discussion also focuses on Yemen’s conflict with Saudi Arabia. Marandi says Yemen has become more militarily capable and that Saudi Arabia is vulnerable because its economy depends heavily on oil infrastructure. He argues that Riyadh’s best option is to end the war and the blockade of Yemen.

He cautions that Pakistani or Turkish involvement—or the deployment of forces from Syria—could be costly and politically damaging. He describes Yemen’s forces as unified and experienced, while portraying the Syrian authorities as fragmented and unlikely to commit troops readily.

Iraq and regional influence

Marandi says a US military withdrawal from Iraq would strengthen Iran and Iraqi resistance groups but would not end American influence. He argues that Washington retains economic and political leverage over Baghdad and warns that armed groups operating from northern Iraq could further destabilize the region.

He also claims Iran could respond to a US ground operation through regional allies, and says Kuwait and Bahrain could be particularly vulnerable if Saudi influence weakened. These are his assessments and scenarios, not independently established outcomes.

Wider geopolitical context

Marandi frames the confrontation as part of a wider shift toward a multipolar world. He says Russia and China view Iran’s success as aligned with their interests and argues that US efforts to contain China, Russia, and Iran have failed.

He attributes Iran’s preparedness to decades of planning and criticizes Washington for lacking a clear strategy. The interview presents a strongly anti-US and pro-Iranian analysis; many predictions, including the likelihood and scale of war, are explicitly speculative.

Presenters and contributors

• Glenn Diesen: Host
• Seyed Mohammad Marandi: Guest