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Markets Ignore Higher Rates, Rally On Bitcoin And Gold...But MAJOR Storm Clouds Approaching!
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Key takeaways
Weekly market takeaways (Verified Investing weekly wrap-up)
- Metals and crypto led the week. The presenter highlights a strong rally in gold, silver, and Bitcoin, framing it as a shift from “fiat” toward a more hedging/risk-asset mindset. He repeatedly notes these were the standout performers, outperforming broader equities.
- Stocks were mixed and technically constrained.
- The S&P 500 rose slightly on the day (~0.4%) but was described as having a down week overall.
- Technically, the S&P is trading under/around a resistance trend line, with a key upside level cited around 78.50 if the index rallies next week.
- The presenter also emphasizes a pivot line that separates short-term positive vs. negative bias; he says price remains above it, so the trend remains somewhat constructive despite recent weakness.
Rates, bond-market intervention, and why stocks didn’t fall
- The 10-year yield rose again and is near 52-week highs, even after government efforts to manage long-end borrowing costs.
- The presenter explains yield curve control–style intervention: buying long-dated bonds and financing it by selling short-dated bonds, effectively taking on more debt.
- Key point: despite rising yields (which normally pressure equities), stocks went up—attributed to:
- Light/liquid trading conditions (late August; institutions on holiday; lower volume can exaggerate/soften price reactions),
- A risk-on mood driven by crypto—especially Bitcoin’s outsized rally,
- Gold’s breakout and strong performance in gold miners drawing attention away from rates.
Dollar outlook
- The presenter says the U.S. dollar weakened by breaking a major trend line, implying downward pressure over the next few weeks to a month, with only possible short-term bounces.
Technical levels and asset-specific commentary
Gold (major focus)
- Gold’s move is described as extraordinary after a wedge breakout (“jailbreak” metaphor).
- Next week’s watch level: a resistance/testing zone just below ~4660–4700 (with additional resistance slightly above).
- He suggests monitoring how price behaves around the Sunday open / Monday.
Gold miners (GDX)
- The presenter notes gold miners have seen an almost ~50% run.
- Resistance is tied to a 618 Fibonacci area and a gap-filled pivot high.
- He says he has taken a short position in miners for a likely pullback, while not claiming gold itself is ready to break down.
Silver
- Silver broke out of a descending trend line, but—unusually—has not outperformed gold as much as it often does.
- Resistance to watch: around 71 to 71.50 (framed as the battleground for bulls vs. bears next week).
Oil
- Oil is up, but the presenter isn’t convinced it has achieved a true breakout.
- He argues a meaningful breakout would likely require escalation with Iran (military action rather than rhetoric/economic pressure), which he says seems doubtful near term given political timing around midterms.
Bitcoin (including his trading posture)
- He calls it one of the biggest weeks in years, citing roughly a ~25% rise in one week.
- He says he unloaded Bitcoin holdings and even opened a small short near the highs (around a pivot trend-line area).
- Potential pullback target: about a 50% retrace toward roughly 71,000–72,000.
- If that level behaves differently, he points to potential next resistance around ~82,000 (citing a prior high pivot).
Natural gas
- Natural gas is described as flat, but he says he’s slowly becoming more bullish based on price action.
- He’s watching for a “flip” on the chart to confirm a bigger move; no flip yet.
What could drive markets next week
- PCE inflation data (major macro catalyst).
- Nvidia earnings (Wednesday after the close), framed as an “earthquake” event that could:
- continue the rally, or
- “nail the coffin” of the AI chip trade (i.e., reverse sentiment concentrated in tech/semiconductors).
Sector rotation theme
- While metals/miners/crypto rallied, some tech exposure (semis, large cap tech/retail) lagged, including:
- SanDisk (slightly down),
- Amazon (down),
- Apple (down),
- while Robinhood surged (noting strength in crypto-related/risk-on style names).
- The big question: whether next week repeats the rotation into metals/crypto or rotates back into tech that underperformed this week.
Presenters / contributors
- Gareth Soloway — Chief Market Strategist, Verified Investing
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