Seyed M. Marandi: If Saudi Arabia Collapses, the Entire Region Will Transform

Overview

Seyed Mohammad Marandi (University of Tehran; former advisor to Iran’s nuclear negotiating team) argues that the current spike in violence between Saudi Arabia and Yemen reflects a broader, fast-worsening regional escalation. He attributes this to U.S.-aligned policies and Mohammed bin Salman’s hardline approach.

Marandi says Saudi Arabia’s refusal to lift the blockade on Yemen is the central obstacle to peace. He also argues that continued bombardment will strengthen Yemen’s allied forces rather than defeat them.

Yemen–Saudi escalation (Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb)

Marandi describes the conflict as a major escalation:

• Houthis (Ansar Allah) are expanding control along the Red Sea coast and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
• Saudi-supported forces continue strikes across Yemen, including areas such as Sana’a, while Saudi-backed operations persist.

Yemen’s strategy, as Marandi frames it

• He presents Yemen’s attacks as strategic pressure—including strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure and maritime-linked targets.
• In his view, the goal is to avoid a wider energy catastrophe while forcing Saudi Arabia to end the war.
• He argues that calling the Houthis “Iranian puppets” is misleading, pointing out that Yemen was not intervened against Iran during earlier U.S./Israeli attacks.
• He claims Yemen escalated only after Saudi attacks resumed.

Why Marandi says Saudi Arabia is losing leverage

Marandi argues that Saudi leverage has weakened compared with “years ago,” citing multiple factors:

1. Emirates withdrew, contributing to coalition fragmentation.
2. Saudi Arabia has economically and militarily weakened amid the Iran conflict.
3. The Houthis have advanced missile/drone technology and developed an indigenous defense industry.
4. Growing public legitimacy for the Houthis in Yemen (and internationally), driven by their perceived resistance to “genocide” and their disruption of Red Sea shipping.

He adds that battlefield momentum reflects this legitimacy, citing Houthi/Ansar Allah gains and suggesting Saudi-supported forces lack incentives to fight despite better equipment and pay.

Economic pressure and global shipping risk

Marandi links the conflict to wider economic strain, including Saudi efforts to lower oil prices to remain competitive in Asia.

He also argues that the war is spreading into shipping and energy infrastructure, increasing the risk of global disruption—especially for energy flows and markets.

U.S. withdrawal from Iraq as a wider strategic shift

He highlights the U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq as evidence of U.S. decline and as a development that benefits Iran by weakening Iran-focused proxy groups.

Marandi portrays the U.S. as still supporting hostile groups indirectly, but argues that without direct troop presence, the “resistance” can operate with greater freedom and exert more pressure.

“Simple solution” to Yemen—while conditions worsen

Marandi describes the apparent solution as straightforward:

• If Saudi Arabia lifts the blockade, Yemen would stop its blockade/pressure.

However, he argues peace is harder now because:

• Yemeni forces have expanded control over population centers and economic zones (where people live and trade), not just remote areas.
• Demands have grown since earlier attacks (including the bombing of Sana’a International Airport).
• He connects similar dynamics to Iran–U.S. negotiations: U.S. re-escalation and blockade measures harden positions and make agreement more difficult.

Iran–U.S. escalation outlook and a bleak forecast

Marandi predicts escalation is likely because neither side has confidence in the other—especially, in his view, the U.S.

He suggests the U.S. may launch another major attack on Iran and argues that:

• Trump lacks a coherent strategy beyond economic strangulation (maximum pressure and efforts to trigger unrest).
• This approach is failing.
• He emphasizes U.S./Israeli willingness to keep escalating, warning the outcome could be catastrophic for the global economy.

Potential economic spillover scenarios (as he presents them)

• Renewed disruption of the Strait of Hormuz (he claims Iran could block it).
• Cascading impacts across oil, gas, LNG, fertilizers, and broader markets.

Broader regional collapse risk (Saudi and Gulf states)

Marandi warns that Saudi Arabia’s internal stability could deteriorate as wealth declines and tribal power dynamics shift, with potential instability spilling into other Gulf monarchies.

He suggests multiple countries could “wobble” if Saudi authority weakens.

Final proposed “path to peace”

Marandi argues that the conditions for ending the wars are already stated in negotiation frameworks, including:

• End attacks and “genocidal” actions (Gaza, Lebanon)
• Stop the Yemen siege
• Return Iranian assets
• Lift sanctions
• Implement memorandum terms

Bottom line

He concludes that peace is “close” if killings stop and assets are returned. However, he believes U.S.-Israeli politics and the “Zionist lobby” will not allow compromise—making continued escalation more likely.

Presenters / Contributors

• Seyed Mohammad Marandi (Professor, University of Tehran; former advisor to Iran’s nuclear negotiating team)
• Glenn (host / interviewer)