【株 初心者】投資歴15年以上の私が0から上がる個別株を探すならこの順番で見つけます！

Finance-focused summary (from the provided subtitles)

Goal & framing

• The presenter (Teacher Ai) argues that reaching 30 million yen in net worth as quickly as possible by relying only on index funds (e.g., the S&P 500) is too slow.
• Instead, they propose a hybrid approach:
  • Long-term index investing for stability, plus
  • Individual stock investing to potentially compound faster (with higher risk).

Index vs. individual stocks (speed comparison)

• S&P 500 example
  • Assumed return: ~7%
  • Monthly contribution: 50,000 yen
  • Estimated time to reach 30 million yen: ~22 years
• Individual stock “extreme example”
  • Mentions NVIDIA as an example of a fast-rising stock.
  • Mentions “ND A” (likely an OCR/subtitle error; appears to be related to NVIDIA).
  • Claims:
    • The stock rose 295× in 10 years
    • 100,000 yen → 29.5 million yen after 10 years
    • The presenter claims similar profit could be achieved in ~4.5 years if you enter early with a small amount.

Disclosures / risk cautions

• Claims that ~90% of people fail when investing in individual stocks, implying high difficulty and risk.
• Emphasizes that you must learn the buy/sell process yourself rather than copying others’ recommendations.
• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles provided.

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3-step stock-picking + entry framework (as described)

Step 1: Identify “stocks likely to rise” using the business model

• Core idea: focus on what the company sells—especially subscription-based businesses.
• Why subscriptions:
  • Revenue is more recurring and observable
  • Churn tends to be less immediately obvious than one-time sales, supporting growth expectations

Example companies/instruments mentioned

• Raks (appears to be an OCR variant of a Japanese listed name)
  • Described as a subscription-based solution for business expense/invoice digitization and accounting automation
  • Price movement: 79 yen → max 2,338 yen
  • Claimed performance: ~30× in ~6 years
  • Example investment: 100,000 yen → 3 million yen
• PacificNet / Pacific Net
  • Mentioned as a subscription-like model example (interpreted as renting IT equipment)

Screening method mentioned

• Use search queries like:
  • “subscription financial statements filetype PDF 20000” (exact query text as shown)
• Then use PDF keyword search:
  • On PC: Ctrl + F
  • On phone: search “subscription”

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Step 2: Determine timing with Technical Analysis (RSI)

• After Step 1 narrows candidates, use technical analysis for entry timing.
• Main indicator: RSI (Relative Strength Index)

RSI threshold rules described

• RSI zones referenced:
  • ~70 (sell / overbought signal)
  • ~32 (buy / oversold signal)
  • (Subtitle wording suggests thresholds are “multiplied from 70 to 32.”)
• Rules:
  • If RSI crosses above the zone (~70) → sell
  • If RSI crosses below the zone (~32) → buy

TradingView usage mentioned

• Use TradingView (free) to:
  • Add the RSI indicator
  • Check timeframes (example mentioned: switching to “1 month”)
  • Observe RSI/price dip patterns in October (example dates mentioned: 2nd and 29th)

Caution about weak signals

• If the price remains within a “purple area” (described as neutral/insufficient movement) for about a month, the presenter suggests switching to a different stock due to lack of opportunity/volatility.

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Step 3: Confirm value and profitability with Fundamental Analysis

• Two focus metrics/criteria:

(a) Valuation: PBR

• Presented as a simplified “price vs. future/company/asset value” discount-like concept.
• Important nuance:
  • The simplistic rule “PBR < 1 is good” is described as too naive because some firms are asset-heavy while others (tech/digital) are not.
• Presenter’s adjusted guideline:
  • For asset-heavy businesses: PBR < 1 can indicate undervaluation
  • For DX / IT / digitalization / growth firms (fewer physical assets): typical stock pricing may be ~3 to 10× asset basis
  • Therefore:
    • For DX/growth: prefer PBR < 3 (instead of <1)

Example

• PacificNet
  • PBR described as hovering around ~2
  • Treated as a “good deal” under the DX/growth guideline

(b) Profitability: ROE

• ROE is the main profitability gate.
• Rule of thumb:
  • ROE ~5% → roughly +5% annual return on invested money (as explained)
  • ROE > 10% → very strong performance
• ROE is shown/checked via TradingView.

Explicit inclusion/exclusion rule

• If ROE is high → include the candidate stock
• If ROE is not good → skip
• Rationale: ROE directly reflects profitability, reducing ambiguity.

Example

• PacificNet
  • ROE described as hovering around ~20%
  • Presenter claims this implies around 3× the typical 7% index return (i.e., competitive outperformance potential)

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Action rule (how/when to buy)

• After completing:
  • Step 1 (subscription/business quality)
  • Step 2 (RSI timing)
  • Step 3 (PBR/ROE confirmation)
• Buy when the stock price reaches the target level (i.e., when RSI indicates favorable timing).
• The presenter calls this “preparing for investment.”

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Macro / historical context mentioned

• The presenter cites learning motivation tied to the Lehman Shock:
  • Their parents lost assets after investing based on recommendations from others (securities-company picks, message boards, blogs).
• Emphasis: learn the full process (choose/buy/sell) to avoid dependency on others’ recommendations.

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Assets / tickers / instruments explicitly mentioned

• S&P 500
• NVIDIA (also referenced via a subtitle/OCR-like “ND A”)
• PacificNet / Pacific Net
• Raks (exact ticker not provided)
• Microsoft 365 (used only as a subscription-business model example)
• TradingView (tool/platform, not a recommendation)

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Presenters / sources (as stated)

• Teacher Ai (presenter / instructor)
• Reference to the Japanese National Tax Agency for income/disposable income statistics (as mentioned in the subtitles).