【AI研究者 今井翔太】AIは「光の中国」「闇のアメリカ」／DeepSeekだけではない“再現性”の衝撃／2026年が特別な年になる理由／人は働かなくてすむ？

Summary

AI researcher Shota Imai discusses the U.S.–China AI race, the prospects for powerful future systems, and how AI may affect work.

• Benchmarks don’t tell the whole story: Strong test scores do not necessarily translate into useful everyday performance. Real-world use and convenience matter, and a lead of a few months may mean little if a model is not genuinely practical.
• The U.S.–China divide: Imai characterizes the current landscape as China’s relatively open-model approach versus America’s more closed approach. He says Chinese open models have become highly capable, with DeepSeek notable for its distinctive openness and philosophy. He also suggests that U.S. frontier models may still be ahead, while Chinese competitors are closing the gap.
• Using open models in companies: Organizations can technically run open models on their own infrastructure and adapt them with additional training, helping address data-handling concerns and model bias. However, technical safeguards do not eliminate political, reputational, or customer concerns, so companies may choose a hybrid approach.
• Why 2026 may be significant: Imai points to growing discussion of AGI and recursive self-improvement (RSI)—AI helping improve AI—as reasons the year could be a turning point. He also warns that advanced AI could make expertise in areas such as cybersecurity and biology more widely accessible, weakening existing barriers to dangerous knowledge.
• Will AI eliminate work? Imai says widespread automation could, in principle, support people materially if governments established effective income and distribution systems. But work also provides community, relationships, purpose, and a sense of contribution. He therefore doubts that people would simply stop working: new or unnecessary jobs may continue to emerge, and large-scale unemployment could create social problems.

Reviews, guides, or tutorials: None. This is an interview and analysis discussion.

Main speakers and sources: Shota Imai, AI researcher and GenesisAI CEO; interviewer Shinji Matsuo, editor-in-chief of Business＋IT.