Gary Wagner: Gold Correction Was Overdue, ‘I’m Personally Surprised’ It Took This Long

Gary Wagner: Gold Correction Was Overdue, ‘I’m Personally Surprised’ It Took This Long

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Key Finance-Specific Content Summary

Assets & Instruments Discussed

• Gold (XAU)
• Silver (XAG)
• Soybeans (commodity) as a potential beneficiary of US-China trade deal
• Federal Reserve policy (interest rates, rate cuts)
• Technical analysis tools: candlestick patterns, Fibonacci retracements, Elliott Wave theory

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Market Context & Macroeconomic Factors

Gold experienced a powerful 9-week rally, peaking near $4,400/ounce, followed by a correction. Despite the pullback, gold remains up 50%+ year-to-date, outperforming most asset classes.

Key macroeconomic points include:

• The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, with markets pricing in further cuts through 2024-2025.
• US-China trade negotiations and potential government shutdowns are significant fundamental drivers influencing gold and silver prices.
• Inflation remains around 3%, which traditionally would deter rate cuts, making the upcoming Fed decision somewhat atypical.

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Technical Analysis & Methodology

• Tom DeMark Sequential 9 Pattern Nine consecutive green weekly candles signal exhaustion and potential reversal. Combined with a “dark cloud cover” candlestick pattern, this indicated a high-probability selloff point.

• Candlestick Patterns Identification of a doji indicating market indecision before the correction. Recent candles showed signs of consolidation or reversal (umbrella line/hammer patterns).

• Fibonacci Retracements Key retracement levels for gold correction:

  • 38.2% retracement near $4,100 (shallow correction, less likely support)
  • 50% retracement near $3,872 (more probable support)
  • 61.8% retracement near $3,748 (deep correction level) The current correction has retraced about 10-12% from the peak.

• Elliott Wave Theory The recent rally is labeled as Wave 1, with the current correction as Wave 2. There is anticipation of a primary Wave 3 rally, typically the longest and strongest impulse wave, pushing gold above previous highs.

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Price Targets & Recommendations

Gold

• Correction could continue down to $3,800-$3,870 as a new potential floor.
• After correction, expect a strong rally surpassing $4,400, reaching new highs possibly in 2026.
• Original target of $4,300 was hit and overshot before the correction.

Silver

• Peaked near $54.51, broke above $50 on October 13.
• Currently correcting, with support near the 50% retracement level.
• Expected to rebound and surpass $55-$58 targets, with a longer-term target of $60 (endorsed by Gary’s son, a technical analyst).
• Silver tends to outperform gold on upside rallies and underperform on corrections, but recent moves show silver holding up relatively well.

Soybeans

• Potential upside if US-China trade deal results in increased Chinese purchases.

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Macro & Fundamental Insights

• Fed rate cuts are bullish for gold, but trade deal optimism and government shutdown risks create conflicting pressures.
• Fundamentals ultimately drive market moves; charts indicate possibilities but are secondary to macroeconomic realities.
• Powell’s Fed communication is expected to be dovish but cautious, balancing inflation concerns with economic risks.
• A more aggressive dovish stance from Powell could override bearish technical momentum and spark immediate rallies.

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Risk & Volatility

• The correction is a healthy consolidation after an extraordinary rally (over $1,000 gain in gold from ~$3,350 to $4,400).
• Volatility is expected to continue; traders should watch key support levels closely.
• Market sentiment has shifted from extreme bullishness to caution, signaling potential profit-taking.

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Disclaimers

• Gary Wagner offers premium subscription services at goldfor.com with daily videos and detailed analysis.
• The discussion is framed as market analysis, not explicit financial advice.

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Presenters & Sources

• Gary Wagner – Editor of goldfor.com, technical analyst specializing in precious metals.
• Jeremy Saffron – Host/interviewer from Kicko News.
• Mention of Tom DeMark (legendary analyst, creator of Sequential 9 pattern).
• Gary’s son (unnamed), also a technical analyst, referenced for silver price target.

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Summary Takeaway

The recent gold correction is a normal and overdue pullback within a strong bull market supported by dovish Fed expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty. Technical signals (DeMark Sequential 9, Fibonacci retracements, Elliott Waves) suggest that after this correction, gold and silver are poised for significant new highs. Key support levels around $3,800 for gold and near 50% retracement for silver are critical to watch. The upcoming Fed meeting and US-China trade developments will be primary catalysts for price direction in the near term.