Institutions Are Buying All The New Bitcoin

Finance/Crypto Thesis & Key Claims

• The speaker argues an “ETF iPhone moment” for Bitcoin: the US Bitcoin ETF launch in 2024 allowed mainstream and institutional investors to access Bitcoin using traditional finance “rails.”
• The resulting effect is higher adoption and greater absorption of new supply.
• Main implication: because institutions have absorbed much of the issuance, the next Bitcoin halving is viewed as less important than in prior cycles (though not literally “zero”).

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Institutional “Coin Absorption” / Supply–Demand Numbers (Key Metrics)

Post-ETF (US, 2024): Institutional demand vs new issuance

• Institutional demand (via global inflows into ETPs and corporate treasury purchases): ~900,000 BTC
• New Bitcoin issuance per year: ~200,000 BTC
• Framing: institutional demand was about ~4x new supply in that period.

2026 (bear market) context

• Institutional demand still exceeded new supply.
• MicroStrategy / Strategy is cited as a dominant buyer:
  • Strategy purchase: ~170,000 BTC
  • Total institutional demand since the start of the year: ~190,000 BTC
  • New supply referenced: ~150,000 BTC
• Claim: Strategy + other institutions “absorb most of the new supply.”

Halving “supply deficit” vs institutional demand

• Halving-related annual production reduction cited as ~164,000 BTC per year (from 2024).
• Speaker’s conclusion: the institutional demand indicator is already higher than this, so the halving effect becomes a “rounding error” relative to demand in future cycles.

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Supply Redistribution Over Time (Share Changes)

Comparing 2021 vs ~5 years later (today):

• Unmined / remaining to be mined

  • 2021: about 15% of supply still to be mined
  • ~5 years later: about ~5% remaining (roughly 10 percentage points lower)
  • Interpretation: the remaining issuance/liquidity is increasingly being absorbed by institutions.

• Institutional / corporate growth (share of supply)

  • Corporate treasury share: now ~6% (described as growing “incredibly”)
  • ETP share: estimated ~close to 6%

• Retail share

  • Retail/unaccounted share believed to be ~50% in 2021
  • Now decreased by only about 4 percentage points
  • Conclusion: retail remains structurally large despite migration.

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Methodology / Framework (Qualitative)

“iPhone moment” analogy/framework

• ETFs act as a bridge for institutions previously unable to adapt to Bitcoin’s blockchain-native rails.
• After ETF access improves, institutional demand shifts to exceed new issuance, altering the market’s supply–demand balance.

Halving vs institutional absorption framing

• Compare:
  • Halving-created supply reduction: ~164,000 BTC/year
  • Institutional demand: already higher, even during bear-market conditions

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Investment Stance / Allocation Guidance (Retail vs Institutional)

Risk-management philosophy differences

• The speaker claims:
  • Individuals optimize more for growth (less focus on volatility/Sharpe ratio).
  • Institutions optimize for risk, implying a lower BTC allocation.

Claimed institutional BTC allocation

• Institutions “eventually get to” about ~5% BTC holdings (presented as a low allocation due to volatility constraints).

Retail/individual crypto allocation

• Speaker suggests individuals hold much higher BTC/crypto shares than institutions.

Bitcoin vs multi-crypto asset allocation

• For exposure:
  • Start with Bitcoin (and often Ethereum as the primary second asset for institutions).
• Claim: Bitcoin + Ethereum explain 90%+ of crypto market return variation, largely due to their market-cap dominance.
• For broader diversification:
  • Consider a basket including BTC, ETH, SOL (and other majors), rather than Bitcoin alone.
• No specific numeric allocation for “the average person” is provided beyond the qualitative direction: retail > institutional, and ~5% as the institutional target.

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Instruments / Tick ers / Assets Mentioned

• Bitcoin (BTC)
• Ethereum (ETH)
• Solana (SOL)
• Dogecoin (DOGE) (mentioned as an example during diversification discussion)
• ETPs / Bitcoin ETPs
• ETFs (US launch context referenced for 2024/2023)
• Corporate treasuries / buyers cited:
  • Strategy / MicroStrategy
• Macro indicator referenced:
  • ISM manufacturing index

Marketing/distraction segment (not finance analysis):

• “Inner Circle Compass” / “Lark Davis newsletter” (ad/trading signal content)

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Disclosures / Disclaimers

• The provided subtitles did not include an explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer.

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Presenters / Sources Mentioned

• Speaker: “Andre” (referred to as “Andre” during the allocation question)
• Referenced institutions / sources:
  • Bitwise (speaker says they work with pension funds/family offices)
  • BlackRock (referenced via a non-official/social-media-shared document by employees)
  • Strategy / MicroStrategy
• Macro reference: ISM Manufacturing Index
• Other named entities (ads/newsletter):
  • Inner Circle Compass
  • Lark Davis newsletter