He Called the Copper & Uranium Rally – Here’s His Next Big Bet | Lobo Tiggre & Michelle Makori

Portfolio / Liquidity Stance (Explicit)

• Lobo Tiggre says he is ~80% in cash (and not in metals).
• He calls this “unprecedented” for him.
• He is not predicting a 2026 crash, but believes the risk of a major “waterfall” market event is meaningfully higher than normal.

“Waterfall” Risk Framing (Explicit Numbers)

• Baseline “background radiation” risk: ~5%
• Current feel for “this year”: ~20–30% risk of a major “waterfall” event

Tactical Objective

• The key goal is to stay liquid, so that if markets drop sharply (including within gold/silver/miners), he can buy during drawdowns at “nickels and dimes” (i.e., when others are forced sellers).

Macro Drivers of “Waterfall” Risk (Qualitative)

• Sudden policy / disruption risk (his “sledgehammer / dogecoin chainsaw” style metaphor)
• Hot war escalation and insufficiently stable ceasefires
• High / “nosebleed” valuations (e.g., referencing the “Magnificent Seven” and large trillion-dollar valuations)
• Inflation + valuation regime, plus geopolitical shocks, as potential catalysts

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Gold & Gold Miners: Base Case vs. Downside

Important Distinction

• His “waterfall” risk is market-wide.
• His gold thesis is treated as separate, and he explicitly distinguishes:
  • physical gold vs.
  • gold miners / ETF exposure (in how he discusses trades)

Base Case (Gold)

• Expect consolidation/correction first
• Then the next move is expected higher (not lower)

Caution Signals / Observations (Method)

• Silver-to-gold “catch-up”
  • Since the late-2015 gold/silver bottoms, silver has finally more than caught up to gold (as of January).
  • He notes a historical pattern: silver often catches up “at the end” of bull markets.
• Chart-pattern “spookiness”
  • He compares peaks resembling:
    • January 2026 (assumed peak) vs Sept 2011 and Jan 1980
  • Pattern described:
    • sharp pre-peak rally → sharp falloff → possible dead-cat bounce → general downward drift post-peak
  • He treats this as an attention signal, not proof.

Worst-Case / “Buyable” Drawdown (Explicit Targets)

• Possible ~50% retreat in gold
• If gold falls 50%, he projects “sub 3,000” (described as high 2000s)
• Gold miners / miners complex:
  • expected to be far worse than gold (“absolutely get creamed”)
  • implies opportunities to buy at large discounts

Recommendation Style

• Not “sell everything forever,” but:
  • Hold cash to exploit either: 1) a broad waterfall (everything on sale), or 2) a gold interim top that pressures silver and the complex

Near-Term Gold Range (Explicit)

• During consolidation/correction: $4,000–$5,000
• He references a prior multi-year correction regime (2020-era), describing ~±10–20% movement in a broad range.

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Silver Thesis (Industrial + Monetary Metal)

Relative Value Call

• Even after strong gains, he says silver has more upside than gold.

Key Drivers

• Monetary metal + industrial/critical mineral usage
• Silver applications mentioned:
  • Solar
  • Nuclear power
  • “Critical” electronic uses
  • A speculative theme: possible silver use in space / data-center infrastructure, framed via conductivity/heat-transfer (science-fiction tone, but rooted in properties)

Timeframes / Volatility

• He suggests silver could behave like gold but “on steroids.”
• Expect ~±10–20% fluctuations around the gold base case; silver likely more volatile.

Downside Caution (Explicit Trigger)

• Not surprising if silver drops back below $50.
• If a previous ceiling becomes a floor and breaks, he expects:
  • technical alarms
  • possible forced selling/overreaction
  • potential opportunity

“Stupid Cheap” Conditional Buy (Explicit)

• If silver falls to about $30 or less, he would view it as “stupid” cheap and would “back up the truck.”

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Copper Thesis (Structural Deficits + Event Catalyst)

Past Accuracy / Prior Performance Mentioned (Explicit)

• Copper rally ~45% at peak (as referenced)
• Uranium up over ~33% (as referenced)

Current Price Context (Explicit)

• Copper around $4.4/lb earlier (interview anchor)
• Now around ~$6.5/lb
• Record high around ~$6.7/lb

Base Stance

• Still extremely bullish structurally, despite the rally.

Why He’s Still Bullish

• Supply constraints
  • long lead times
  • permitting delays
  • insufficient discoveries
  • mining depletion
• Demand tailwinds
  • electrification
  • AI/data-center buildout
  • emphasis: “tons of copper” needed beyond small wiring changes
  • even if AI is “hyped,” copper demand from buildout still exists

Event / Catalyst Risk (Explicit Date + Policy)

• June 30 is highlighted:
  • the U.S. commerce secretary has until June 30 to decide on recommending new copper tariffs (refined copper imports)
• He expects this could drive short-term price spikes
• Also a reason to preserve cash (avoid chasing)

Action Framing (No Direct Tickers)

• He won’t give “free stock tips,” but suggests:
  • risk-averse: majors are “obvious”
  • higher risk: developers/juniors exist, but the copper juniors universe has fewer names

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Uranium Thesis (Recession-Resistant; Portfolio Shift)

Price Context (Explicit)

• Previously around $76/lb (Sept anchor)
• Surged to around $101/lb in late January
• Now around ~$86/lb

Base View

• Uranium is “recession resistant.”

If a Waterfall Hits

• Uranium and uranium stocks could drop too, but he frames it as:
  • an opportunity from mispricing
  • (not his highest-probability base case)

Positioning (Explicit)

• He says he sold gold/silver miners
• His portfolio is “almost entirely uranium now”, with a bit of copper
• If he didn’t already own uranium, he says he’d buy some tomorrow

Longer-Term Demand Logic (With Time Anchor)

• China plans to double reactor fleet by 2050
• Construction is already underway, and builds take a long time—so 2050 is “tomorrow-ish.”

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Cross-Commodity “Pair Trade” Concept

• Conditional, geopolitics-driven approach:

  • If the war ends / appears to end
    • oil may drop (he cites oil dropping 20–30% on optimistic tweets)
    • thus oil stocks could be bought on sale
  • If war continues
    • expect opportunity in copper (he expects copper to drop, creating a buy setup)

• He stresses this is not market timing, but responding to which regime occurs.

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Methodology / Step-by-Step Framework

Liquidity-First Playbook

• Increase cash when the odds of forced selling (“waterfall”) rise
• Realize gains ahead of potential drawdowns to fund re-entry
• Buy after forced declines rather than chasing peaks

Gold/Silver Caution Framework

• Check silver relative to gold for late-cycle behavior
• Use chart-pattern comparisons (peaks/drawdowns) as attention signals
• Maintain bullish fundamentals but remain open to interim top risk

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Risk Management, Exits, and Discipline (Explicit)

Realized Gains + Risk Removal

• He says he sold gold and silver miners due to:
  • huge unrealized gains → book profits
  • concerns about “the story,” including political risk → exit

Trading/ETF Notes

• He clarifies:
  • he does not use gold ETFs
  • if trading gold directionally, he might use an ETF or short-term instruments
  • but for making money, he primarily uses stock picking
    • majors → developers → juniors, by risk profile

Cash as “Inflation Premium”

• He acknowledges inflation drag but treats liquidity as a premium to act quickly on opportunities
• Cash must be instantly deployable (including participation in private placements/warrants)

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Key Explicit Numbers & Levels (Compiled)

Waterfall / Risk

• Waterfall baseline: ~5%
• This year: ~20–30%
• Cash level: ~80%

Gold

• Worst-case: ~50% retreat
• If 50% down: sub $3,000 (“high 2000s”)
• Consolidation range: $4,000–$5,000
• Gold prior reference points:
  • test of $4,000 reached
  • ~$5,400 peak in January

Silver

• Upside call referenced: $50
• Downside: possible drop below $50
• “Stupid cheap” buy condition: $30 or less

Copper

• Earlier: ~$4.4/lb
• Now: ~$6.5/lb
• Record high: ~$6.7/lb
• Catalyst: June 30 copper tariff decision deadline

Uranium

• ~$76/lb (Sept anchor)
• Peak: ~$101/lb (late January)
• Now: ~$86/lb

Bank Price Targets Mentioned (Not Presented as His Targets)

• Deutsche Bank: $6,000 by year-end
• JP Morgan: $6,000
• UBS: $5,500
• Goldman Sachs: $5,400

His Implicit Gold “Next Leg” Implication (Range)

• After consolidation/breakout: he implies ~$8–9k within about a year
• Mentions ~10k+ potential (described via doubling-type projections, without a clean final year-end number)

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Disclosures / Disclaimers

• He caveats he’s “not an economist,” describing himself as a “due diligence guy.”
• No explicit “not financial advice” line is included in the subtitles shown, though the framing is clearly personal-investing oriented (“my portfolio,” “I would buy/sell”).
• The interview includes an educational/promotional segment related to a broker/adviser service, but no direct advice disclaimer appears in the subtitles.

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Presenters / Sources Mentioned

• Michelle McCori (host / presenter): “The Real Story”
• Lobo Tiggre / Lobo Tigra (guest): founder/editor of The Independent Speculator
• Rick Rule (mentioned in due diligence/liquidity context; also references selling physical silver prior)
• World Gold Council (WGC): cited for central bank gold flows/data (e.g., net buyers in April, +17 tons, and Poland +14 tons)
• Independent Speculator (publication referenced)
• Banks/financial institutions mentioned via gold/silver forecasts: Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, UBS, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America