Elecciones en España: ¿volverá a ganar Sánchez? | Con Miguel Anxo Bastos

Overview

In this live stream, political scientist Miguel Anxo Bastos analyzes Pedro Sánchez’s decision to call Spain’s general elections for 29 November. He argues that the move is less a gamble that will decisively save the PSOE and more a politically strategic effort to re-mobilize and expand support, even though broader electoral trends still suggest a right-wing victory.

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Sánchez’s election call: strategy to mobilize, not just to campaign

The discussion begins by weighing whether Sánchez’s announcement is a “masterstroke” or a “desperate move.” Bastos argues:

• The timing was favorable, and the campaign narrative is being shaped proactively.
• The campaign has leveraged housing protests/activism—centered on tenants and related groups—amplified through friendly media to create an emotionally compelling frame.
• The goal is portrayed as mobilization rather than policy persuasion: building a banner that activates voter turnout.

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Polls vs. seats: the right may win, but the margin could narrow

Bastos accepts that polling trends favor a right-wing bloc (PP + Vox) and that they may achieve the seat outcomes often discussed—including the possibility of constitutional reforms.

However, he predicts that the seat gap could narrow, arguing the PSOE can still mobilize voters who have become demobilized, partly due to:

• perceived political corruption scandals
• the Ceuta controversy mentioned in the discussion
• dissatisfaction with the housing problem

Core claim: the PSOE is trying to convert anger and demobilization into turnout-driven confrontation, focusing on housing and the related identity/economic fears.

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Why housing is a risky but effective mobilization theme for the left

Bastos describes housing as a highly divisive issue in a country where roughly 3/4 of families are homeowners. He argues housing politics can motivate:

• left-leaning younger voters (the key audience he highlights)
• some homeowners in a defensive way, because certain proposals may be perceived as threats to property rights (including fears about squatting or expropriation-style narratives)

He also contends that the PSOE’s own governing record weakens its credibility on housing, since (as he puts it) the government has governed for years while the problem worsened.

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Potential counter-effect: overreaching could backfire on PSOE strategy

The host/guest also discuss potential PSOE moves near election day, including:

• use of the Permanent Deputation to approve decrees
• a general strike call framed against the opposition rather than the incumbent government

Bastos warns that overreaction or escalatory tactics could:

• mobilize the right even more
• make PSOE appear illegitimate or absurd
• generate backlash rather than additional support

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Opposition strategy: PP/Vox must avoid becoming “the same brand”

On how the PP and Vox should campaign, Bastos suggests they must show distinct profiles rather than appear interchangeable.

Key points include:

• Vox’s strength in working-class areas
• Vox’s ability to reach neighborhoods mainstream right parties historically struggled to penetrate
• a warning that if voters see PP and Vox as the same coalition in different packaging, Vox loses its unique appeal

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What the PP did wrong in 2023 (and what it should fix)

Bastos criticizes a reactive-only campaigning approach, centered on “repealing Sánchez’s policies,” arguing that:

• repeal messaging is insufficient unless voters understand what will replace those policies
  • e.g., implications for taxes, pensions, and labor regulations
• the right needs a more constructive narrative to avoid sounding like empty negation

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Catalonia and smaller parties: strategic gaming and coalition math

The conversation expands to Catalonia, covering:

• how polling and coalition strategies could reshape outcomes
• possible “cordon sanitaire” effects around ideologically adjacent forces
• strategic decisions about not running in certain arenas to preserve leverage or improve downstream outcomes (with examples tied to parliamentary/mandate logic and seat capture)

Bastos frames these moves as chess-like strategy, where parties may avoid giving opponents a platform, manage blockades, and anticipate downstream consequences.

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Immediate forecasting: PSOE may survive the polling trend, but the system can still flip

In concluding, Bastos argues that although “everything points” toward a right-wing win, much can still change within the 50-day window.

He suggests that surprise events—for example, legal or political shocks such as irregular financing allegations—could alter:

• campaign focus
• media narratives
• the perceived “battle frame”

Finally, he notes that once housing fades from the news cycle, other issues and internal left dynamics will become central—such as who leads the lists and whether the left stays united.

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Presenters/Contributors

• Miguel Anxo Bastos — Professor; political science and electoral analysis
• Host/Moderator: “Professor Rayo” — speaking to Bastos on the channel
• Coinbase — sponsor mentioned in the broadcast