IISS Manama Dialogue 2026 | The Implications of Transformational Regional Conflict

Summary

The session examined how three years of conflict have affected regional security and what could prevent another escalation. Speakers argued that the consequences extend well beyond the Middle East: threats to shipping and critical infrastructure can disrupt energy and food supplies, trade, and the wider global economy.

Badr Abdelatty: Building a regional security order

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty called for a shift from managing crises to building a regional security order. He outlined five priorities:

• Respect for international law and state sovereignty
• Security arrangements led by regional states
• A combination of deterrence, diplomacy, and crisis-prevention measures
• Protection of maritime routes, energy facilities, and other critical infrastructure
• A just settlement of the Palestinian issue

Abdelatty argued that lasting regional security requires a Palestinian state on the 1967 lines, with East Jerusalem as its capital. He said Gaza’s ceasefire and reconstruction need a credible political horizon.

He also urged structured regional dialogue, potentially modeled on the OSCE, and renewed efforts toward a Middle East free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. Warning that another round of military escalation would be more destructive, he said Egypt was engaging diplomatically—including with Iran—despite the absence of diplomatic relations.

Waleed El Khereiji: Diplomacy and deterrence

Saudi Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Waleed El Khereiji said Saudi security depends on regional stability, and that diplomacy must be accompanied by the capacity to deter threats. He emphasized strengthening state institutions and sovereignty, and outlined Saudi positions on Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Sudan, including support for political settlements and condemnation of Houthi attacks.

On Palestine, El Khereiji called for a stable ceasefire in Gaza, unimpeded humanitarian aid, rejection of displacement and settlement expansion, and progress toward a two-state solution. He described maritime security—especially in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz straits—as a shared regional and international responsibility. He also cited Saudi efforts to improve defense capabilities, infrastructure protection, and cybersecurity.

Stephen Doughty: Regional threats and UK support

UK Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty condemned what he described as threats from Iran and its proxies, including attacks on Gulf partners, civilians, and commercial interests. He said the UK had provided defensive support, including air-defense assistance and RAF missions, while continuing diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation.

Doughty highlighted evolving threats from drones, missiles, cyber operations, sabotage, and artificial intelligence, as well as the use of disinformation by state and non-state actors. He reiterated UK support for a two-state solution and called for humanitarian access to Gaza, an end to illegal settlement expansion, and a path toward peace and reconstruction. He also cited crises and security concerns in Sudan, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.

Question-and-answer session

Participants asked how regional ownership could work in practice, how states might enforce shared commitments, and what international partners should contribute.

Doughty said the UK would support arrangements shaped by regional governments and respond to partners’ requests, including on maritime and undersea infrastructure security. El Khereiji said the Saudi defence minister’s visit to Iran was intended to encourage de-escalation and support mediation, and described the US as a major Saudi partner.

Abdelatty reiterated the need for regional rules, international cooperation, and diplomatic engagement, while warning that a renewed conflict could have severe consequences. The moderator closed by highlighting the importance of preventive diplomacy and the need to test security pledges against their delivery.

Presenters and contributors

• Bastian Giegerich — Moderator; IISS Director-General and Chief Executive
• Badr Abdelatty — Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs
• Waleed El Khereiji — Saudi Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs
• Stephen Doughty — UK Minister of State for the Middle East
• Questioners: Dashana Barua, Dina Tawakol, Hassan Al Hassan, Raghida Dergham, Anton La Guardia, Youd Al-Harthy, Vera Lanoe, Wakana Asawa, Jonathan Bass, and Rakan Al Dajani