Boot Camp #7: Fibonacci Pt 3

Finance-focused summary (markets + trading framework)

Market context / weekly bias (no specific macro data cited)

• The speaker frames the week as trading within an uptrend:
  • “At the start of this week… we are at all-time highs.”
  • Behavioral expectation: since price is at/above prior highs, they avoid initiating shorts “against the trend” and instead wait for confirmation and fib-based levels.
• Timing emphasis (session-based):
  • Strategy is centered on pre/early trading (around 8:00–9:15 Eastern).
  • After 9:30, they generally discourage trading due to worse outcomes.

Instruments / tickers mentioned

• Index futures / ETFs (implied via futures tickers):
  • NQ (Nasdaq 100 futures)
  • MNQ (micro Nasdaq 100 futures)
  • ES (S&P 500 futures)
  • Mentions Gold futures / “Gold shorts”
• Crypto / other tickers: none mentioned.
• No explicit ETF tickers named.

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Core trading methodology (Fibonacci-based, session-driven)

The speaker repeatedly applies a repeatable fib framework tied to session structure (Asia / London / NY), using “OTE” and “manipulation” fibs.

Framework / steps (as described)

1. Define targets from higher-timeframe “range” fibs

   • Draw fib from the lowest point of the relevant session leg to the highest point (described like a “stencil analogy”).
   • Use common retracement/extension levels explicitly cited:
     • 0.5
     • 0.618
   • Targets referenced using negative notation:
     • -1, -2, -2.5, -3, -4

2. Identify “manipulation” zones

   • “Manipulation” is described as a sweep (low/high) followed by movement back through a key level (e.g., sweep low then break high).
   • Entry/target logic depends on where price rejects, often around fib levels.

3. Identify OTE zones

   • OTE is treated as a retracement-based entry area (“OTE also gives you an entry”).
   • OTE validity rules discussed:
     • It doesn’t have to tap 0.5 to be valid.
     • When to “stop pulling it forward” depends on whether 0.5 has been hit.

4. Use “true day open” as a key magnet/level

   • “True day open” is defined as the midnight open price (dashed line on their platform).
   • Behavior rules:
     • If price is below true day open → look for longs up to it
     • If price is above → look for shorts down to it

5. Risk management / trade structure

   • Universal risk/reward template:
     • 50-tick stop loss
     • 50-point take profit
     • “It’s always going to give me a 1:4 RR.”
   • Behavioral rule:
     • If bias is against your initial expectation, still take the trade if fib levels and the setup confirm.
     • Avoid predicting—react to what already has.
   • Position management:
     • Prefer “limiting” into specific fib levels (example: repeatedly targeting -2.5 and -4).

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Key numbers & explicit trade examples (weekly recap style)

Monday (bias: bearish, but longs were taken first)

• Setup themes
  • All-time highs; prior highs broken.
  • Expectation: price searches toward London low (and session logic references “Asia low” elsewhere).
• Fib targets cited
  • -1, -2, -2.5, -4
• Trade outcomes
  • A short idea is discussed first, but the day ultimately includes taking longs when fib projection aligns.
  • “By show of hands” commentary supports the claim that this 1:4 setup wins frequently.

Tuesday (bias short → “New York reversal”)

• Bias logic
  • Asia and London consolidation; highs swept.
• Targets
  • London low
  • Asia low
• Fib entry / confirmation
  • Entry/limit described around 2.5 (presented as -2.5 in fib notation).
  • 0.618 referenced as an alternative entry if the initial entry is missed.
• Outcome
  • “New York reversal” completes and price delivers toward London and Asia low.

Wednesday (mixed longs/shorts; includes Gold + NQ)

• Core trading theme
  • Trading around true day open and fib alignment.
• Gold / NQ rotation
  • They took Gold shorts first.
  • Due to margin constraints (“no margin” because funds were in gold), they then entered shorts on NQ after break-even.
• Risk approach for Gold
  • Stop described as a 2 to 3 point stop
  • Run for three or four RR
• Core takeaway
  • Emphasis on consistent point-based targets (often 50 points for NQ context).

Thursday (bottom identification + rally; political headline mentioned as catalyst)

• Fib targets cited
  • -2.5 and -1 aligning to the bottom
• Entry logic
  • Price reached targets, formed structures (mentions “W”), and then rallied.
• News / catalyst reference
  • A sharp drop attributed to a Trump tweet about U.S. navy ships (“kill everything that they see”).
  • Implied caution: fib can’t override unexpected macro/news shocks.

Friday (continuation longs from all-time highs)

• Bias
  • Expecting a continuation of longs
• Fib targets
  • -2, -2.5, -4
• Outcome
  • Sequence described:
    • Enter around -2.5
    • Re-enter after a break-even
    • Eventually hit -4
    • “Runs for… 50 points” and bias “played out” with continuation higher.
• Explicit consistency rule
  • If asked about trading window: recommend at most two max losses per day.

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Practical cautions / behavioral rules

• Don’t short against the trend at all-time highs unless fib/structure confirms.
• Do not trade after ~9:30 Eastern (claimed to consistently lead to losses).
• Don’t predict—use fib levels and “react to what already has.”
• If a fib setup fails:
  • Re-check that you used the correct highest/lowest points.
  • If you lose, it’s framed as “wrong fib,” not “wrong system.”

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Platform / instrument rules (important)

• Never fib the micro
  • “You always always always fib the NQ and ES. You never ever fib the micro (MNQ).”
  • Rationale: micro price follows the true index futures contract.

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Disclosures / disclaimers

• No formal “not financial advice” disclaimer is mentioned in the subtitles provided.
• The speaker frames the content as instructional strategy teaching and repeatedly notes it “works” when followed.

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Presenters / sources mentioned

• Primary presenter: Ivan (spoken as “Ivan” throughout; referenced directly by name)
• Other named individuals (participants / students / community):
  • Claudia Trades
  • Christian
  • Tracy
  • Mason
  • Santi, Abe, Edwin, Jenna, Justice, Timmy, Rob49, Kevin Branch, Brandon, Casey, Alicia, Aryan, Nick Fatone, Tony Jeremy, Levi, Leo, Massimo, Bryce, Aaron, MMA, JM
  • (Tracy appears again as referenced)
• Public figure referenced (news catalyst): Donald Trump