¡ATENCIÓN en JUNIO!

Finance-focused subtitle summary (Argentina + international) — May recap / June outlook

Disclosures / cautions

• “Warning… video is not a recommendation.”
• “You are solely responsible for your financial decisions.”
• Any crypto/specific investing mentions are framed as not investment advice / no financial advice, including regulatory reasons.

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Argentina macro & financial conditions

Inflation

• April inflation: 2.6% (reported in May)
• Year-to-date: ~12%
• YoY inflation: ~32.5%
• Framing: April being lower than March is normal, and is considered good only if it’s also lower than February.

Price/sector inflation (monthly)

• Highest increases: communication, education, transportation
• Lowest increases: recreation & culture, food & non-alcoholic beverages

Exchange rates (dollar movement in May)

• Official dollar: 1425 → 1430 (<0.5%)
• “Blue” (unofficial) dollar: 10,000 → 1425
  • Note: the subtitle appears numerically inconsistent, but the described move is ~2% rise
• Crypto dollar: 1475 → ~1500
• Wholesale dollar: 1402 → 1411

Key takeaway: unofficial/crypto-dollar rose modestly (~2%), but not a surge.

Tax revenue (fiscal conditions)

• Tax revenue: 17.4 trillion pesos
• YoY: +27%
• Despite growth, real terms fell because inflation outpaced tax revenue.
• Real variation estimate: -4% vs previous month, and ~-6.5% over 4 months.
• Concept explained: nominal gains can still mean a loss of purchasing power if inflation is higher.

Public finances: “primary” vs “final” result

A simplified model was used, then real figures were provided:

• Primary result: ~632B pesos
• Interest payments: ~268B pesos
• Final fiscal/financial surplus: ~364B pesos

Interpretation: Argentina ended the period with a surplus (fiscal surplus).

Trade, reserves, IMF / FX purchases

Exports & trade balance

• Exports received in USD: ~$9B
• YoY export growth: +33.6%
• April exports: historic record
• Imports paid: ~$6.2B
• Trade balance / surplus: ~$2.7B

Export/import composition

• Exports: agribusiness, industry, primary agricultural products, energy
• Imports: intermediate goods, capital goods, parts & accessories, consumer goods

Reserves & FX buying

• Reserves (“piggy bank”): ~$44.5B → ~$48.0B
• Central Bank bought almost $2.0B in May
• IMF disbursement: +~$1.0B (after Argentina paid ~$0.8B to the IMF)
• At recording time: 94 consecutive business days of dollar buying
  • May alone: >$1.9B
  • YTD: >$9.1B

Country risk (sovereign credit spread proxy)

• Start of month: ~539 points
• End of month: ~500 points (about -6%, described as -5.8%)
• Interpretation: lower country risk → lower borrowing rates, and indirectly better credit conditions and sentiment for firms/households.

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Argentina equities & rates / banking-like instruments

Equity performance (May)

• Argentina stocks: ~+8% in pesos, ~+10% in dollars (as stated)

“Winning” tickers/named companies

• Banco Francés, Banco Macro, Banco Galicia, Telecom, IPF
• Argentine-listed tickers explicitly mentioned: CELU, CBH, MORI, A3
• Telecom was mentioned without an explicit ticker (but appears consistent with the winners framing).

Interest rates / deposit-like comparisons (dollar vs pesos vs inflation)

• Reference rates: Tasa “Tamar” ~23% and Badlar ~22%
• Fixed-term deposits:
  • Average: ~17–18% annually
  • Example: 30-day deposit ~18% annually
• Context: earlier inflation cited around ~2.4% (per subtitle frame), so yields were described as not keeping up with inflation.

Instruments / liquidity options mentioned

• Surety bonds: ~20% annually (at recording time)
• Money-market-like / repurchase agreements and Mercado Pago-type funds were referenced as still not beating inflation (no specific yields beyond deposits/bonds were given).

Economic activity (EMAE)

• EMAE: ~+3.5% MoM or ~+5.5% YoY
• Best sectors: agriculture, mining, construction, industry
• Lagging: public administration (only sector described as negative)

Household/wage proxies and confidence

• Salary index (Ripte): ~1.8M pesos (March), +~2.5% vs Feb
• Consumer confidence: +1.3
• Government confidence: -1.6

Policy change: withholding taxes reduction

The government announced withholding tax cuts for:

• agriculture and industry

Timeline

• Start decreasing: July
• Mid-2026: partial reduction
• By end of 2027: expected to reach 0%

Expected mechanism (as described)

1. Lower withholdings → firms keep more cash
2. Better ability/incentive to sell → higher revenue/earnings
3. Potentially more investment (e.g., new factories) → hiring → wages may rise via supply/demand

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International markets (US + oil/precious metals + crypto)

US macro: CPI, jobs, unemployment, Fed policy

• US CPI inflation: 0.6% monthly, ~3.8% annual (slightly above typical, but not extreme)
• Jobs: 115,000 new jobs registered in April
• Unemployment: 4.3%
• Fed policy rate: held around ~3.5%–3.75% (“maintaining it”)

Linkage mentioned

• Lower US rates → stocks tend to rise
• Higher rates → stocks tend to fall
• US bonds framed as more “guarantee-like” when yields are high.

Rate-sensitive market levels mentioned

• S&P 500: all-time highs
• Nasdaq 100: all-time highs
• US Treasury bonds: ~4.5% annual, framed as beating current US inflation (i.e., positive real yield)

Commodities / metals

• WTI crude oil: ~-3%
• Brent crude: ~-8%
• Gold: flat

Fed leadership change (expectations)

• Subtitle references: Jerome Powell replaced by Kevin (implying a new chair)
• Expectation presented: the new chair may align more with Trump, with a goal of lower interest rates
• Explicit caution: don’t invest directly on that expectation (unpredictable)

Crypto policy developments

• Bitcoin: described as moderately strong month-to-month moves but flat overall
• US Senate Banking Committee approved a Crypto Regulatory Clarity Bill (adoption/advancement step)
• Bipartisan legislation introduced for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

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June “alternatives” (portfolio options discussed)

1) Inflation-linked bonds (SER bonds / UVA-like)

• Inflation-linked bonds described as “like a UVA fixed-term deposit,” potentially with a bonus.
• Yields cited: ~7%–8% (depends on series)
• Preferred examples mentioned:
  • TX31
  • TZXs8

Pros / cons

• Pros: “quite safe” because denominated in pesos (Argentina “issues the pesos it wants”); default unlikely but not impossible
• Cons: price can move before maturity

Liquidity/holding

• Can be sold when needed, but best practice implied: hold until end of term
• Return goal: real terms (above inflation)

2) “Refuge in the dollar” alternatives

• Thesis: the “dollar” may not be keeping up as well as people assume in this environment.
• Product mentioned: S&P 500 / ESAMP 500
  • Subtitle also includes what appears to be a typo (e.g., “ESANPI”), interpreted as exposure to the S&P 500 index/ETF.

Performance claim

• Over the past 75 years, within any 10-year window, it never went down (as stated)
• Expected return: ~10% annually in dollars

Framed as an alternative for multi-year holding rather than short-term trading.

3) Argentina sovereign bonds benefiting from falling country risk

• Mechanism: falling country risk → existing Argentine bonds rise
• Potential returns: coupon + price appreciation, with a reduced chance of underpayment

Examples and yield mentioned:

• AL30, G30, and “L30” (likely a misstatement/typo for another AL30-like series)
• Cited yield: ~9% annually in USD (exchange-rate adjusted + coupon), framed as helping avoid losses vs global dollar inflation/devaluation.

4) Stablecoin staking (higher risk vs “sovereign” framing)

• Concept: buy USD-pegged crypto (“stablecoin”), move it into a mutual-fund-like yield product in a wallet, earn daily.
• Positioned as an alternative for those who “don’t trust Argentina long term.”

5) Risk-on crypto + Bitcoin approach (DCA)

• Preference: Bitcoin at an “attractive price”
• Strategy: DCA (dollar-cost averaging) — buy “little by little” rather than all at once
• Horizon: at least 24 months / 2 years

6) Argentine stocks (higher risk)

• Presenter says they like Argentine stocks but with a caution:
  • “please be cautious”
  • “not a recommendation”

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Key instruments/tickers explicitly mentioned

• Argentina stocks / tickers: CELU, CBH, MORI, A3
  • Also named: Banco Francés, Banco Macro, Banco Galicia, Telecom, IPF
• Argentina sovereign bonds (examples): AL30, G30, L30
• Inflation-linked instruments: TX31, TZXs8 (labeled as “SER bonds”)
• US equity exposure: S&P 500 (appears as “ESANPI / ESP 500 / ESAMP 500”—interpreted as S&P 500)
• Commodities: WTI, Brent, Gold
• Crypto: Bitcoin, stablecoins
• US rates/reference: Fed funds ~3.5%–3.75%, US Treasuries ~4.5%
• Crypto policy instruments: “Crypto Regulatory Clarity Bill”; “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” (not tickers)

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Presenters / sources

• No specific presenter name is given in the subtitles.
• IMF (International Monetary Fund) is referenced as a source of disbursements.