Kémek a budapesti orosz nagykövetségen – Rácz András a kiutasítások hátteréről

Overview

The Telex public affairs program discusses Hungary’s expulsion of 10 Russian diplomats and the likely diplomatic and espionage context behind the move.

Hungary’s justification

Anita Orbán, Hungary’s foreign minister, said that under the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, the 10 embassy employees were engaged in activities deemed unacceptable for diplomats. They were therefore asked to leave Hungary.

She also emphasized that:

• This does not end diplomatic relations
• Hungary wants to keep dialogue with Russia

Russian reaction

Yevgeny Stanislavov

Yevgeny Stanislavov, Russia’s ambassador in Budapest, argued that the expulsion reflects:

• Ideologically motivated anti-Russian rhetoric
• An unprecedented, unjustified escalation

He promised a “worthy response.”

Maria Zakharova

The initial framing also came from Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for Russia’s foreign ministry, who described the incident as “Russophobia” and warned of a harsh and painful response.

Vienna Convention and the “legal means” issue

Expert András Rác explained that the Vienna Convention requires diplomats to:

• Follow host-country law
• Rely on legal means for information-gathering

He noted that expulsion language such as “incompatible with diplomatic status” is often a diplomatic way of indicating espionage.

Who the expelled people likely were

Rác argued that Russian embassy staff commonly include not only diplomats but also personnel linked to multiple intelligence services—such as:

• SVR
• GRU
• FSB

These individuals may operate:

• Under diplomatic cover, or
• Under other cover roles

He added that the exact duties of the expelled individuals generally are not publicly disclosed. Neither side typically publishes names, though investigators may infer identities through accreditation records and reporting.

How expulsions typically work (and escalation levels)

Rác described diplomatic expulsions as ranging from:

• Quiet, informal notice to

• Formal notes and public announcements

He contrasted “normal” practice with more aggressive approaches (e.g., public humiliation), and emphasized that Hungary’s choice and timing are part of the diplomatic messaging.

How Russia might respond

Rác said Russia often retaliates using a “mirror” number of expulsions, though this is not guaranteed.

He referenced examples from:

• Post-Ukraine-war Europe
• US–Russia history

He also cautioned that mapping today’s decision-making chain can be difficult given Russia’s more closed system.

Domestic Russian politics and elections

Rác suggested that harsh response rhetoric can be aimed partly at domestic audiences, noting Russia’s election cycle approaching in mid-September (parliamentary and regional elections). This timing may intensify populist foreign-policy messaging.

Impact on Hungary–Russia cooperation (Paks expansion)

The program examined whether expulsions could affect the Paks nuclear expansion. Rác argued that:

• The project is governed by detailed treaties
• Exit conditions are described in classified terms
• Russia has no strong incentive to abandon nuclear cooperation

He added that Russia’s nuclear industry—especially Rosatom—values projects in EU/NATO-country contexts as global benchmarks.

Broader context: Schengen and operational logic

Rác claimed that under diplomatic cover, Russian intelligence uses the Schengen area extensively for cross-border regional operations.

He argued that after many EU countries reduced staffing following Russia’s 2022 escalation, Moscow’s logic would be to concentrate resources in fewer remaining “exceptions”—places where fewer expulsions occurred.

Trust within NATO and “quarantine” of Hungary

The program noted that Hungary has been viewed by allies as isolated due to prior pro-Russian positioning. Rác suggested that actions aligned with alliance norms can help restore trust.

He avoided speculating on internal NATO decision-making mechanics and recommended NATO experts for that.

Presenters / contributors

• Balázs Réli (host)
• András Rác (guest; Deputy Director General, Institute of Foreign Affairs; Russia expert)