Thursday, Plague update

Risk Assessment

Dr. John Campbell says the risk of a pandemic appears very low if the illness was ordinary plague caused by Yersinia pestis. However, he stresses that the pathogen and the circumstances of laboratory worker Daria Shipilova’s death remain unconfirmed. Reports of a second death are also unconfirmed, and Russian authorities reportedly deny them.

Unanswered Questions

Campbell says the public has not been given autopsy findings, a confirmed diagnosis, microbiology or genome-sequencing results, or an explanation of how Shipilova became infected. He argues that Russian authorities likely know more than they have disclosed.

Reasons for Doubting It Was Ordinary Plague

Campbell points to reports of prolonged hospital quarantines, quarantined staff, mask instructions for some workers, and cancelled or postponed public events in Irkutsk. He considers this response unusual for a region where plague is endemic and says it may indicate concern about another pathogen or an unusual form of plague.

He also questions why antibiotics reportedly did not prevent or treat the illness, while acknowledging that pneumonic plague can sometimes be fatal despite treatment.

Speculative Explanations

Campbell raises the possibilities of a different infectious agent or antibiotic-resistant Y. pestis, noting that bacterial drug resistance can be engineered. He does not present evidence establishing either possibility.

He considers an intentional release connected to the war in Ukraine implausible given the distance, and says an accident would be more likely if a laboratory incident occurred.

Regional and Historical Context

The video notes that plague occurs naturally in parts of Russia and elsewhere. It also cites a 2017 pneumonic-plague outbreak in Madagascar, where transmission was estimated at an R value of 2.4. Campbell says historical US data showed lower transmission under effective control.

He recalls Soviet-era secrecy around the 1979 Sverdlovsk anthrax incident and the Chernobyl disaster as reasons for skepticism about official disclosures.

Transparency and Biosecurity

Campbell criticizes Russia’s lack of public information, while also arguing that governments including the UK and US should be more transparent. He discusses the Irkutsk anti-plague institute’s Soviet-era biological-weapons history and raises concerns that AI could accelerate pathogen research. These are broader concerns, not evidence that either occurred in this incident.

Closing Update

At the time of recording on October 8, Campbell said he had seen no further information from the WHO and no confirmation that a call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin had taken place. He said he would continue monitoring developments and mentioned that he had restored his Substack to publish written summaries and expert material.

Presenter: Dr. John Campbell.