My Thoughts On This Market Rally & What I’ve Bought

Finance-focused summary (markets + what he bought)

Market regime / drivers (2H 2026 outlook)

• The speaker believes the S&P 500 rebound has been hardware/semiconductor-driven, supported by strong earnings (examples: Micron) and AI-related capex demand.
• He highlights continued AI buildout / mega capex as the fundamental backdrop, citing that chipmakers are seeing strong demand (examples: AMD guidance and data center demand).
• He warns that parts of the market have become “momentum-driven” with hype/euphoria—especially in semiconductors/memory-related exposures (notably Korea).

Key concerns: leverage + regional “pocket” risk (Korea/memory)

• He argues the Korean semiconductor/memory trade became overly leveraged:
  • Mentions 2x–3x leverage leading to a sharp drawdown and liquidations.
  • Claims >3% of people got margin-called (exactness uncertain due to subtitle quality).
  • Describes extreme social consequences, including reports of violence against an influencer stock-picking recommender—framing conditions as “absolutely crazy.”
• Bottom line: despite underlying industry strength, he prefers to avoid that leveraged memory bottleneck pocket.

Rotation: hardware vs software (reverse correlation callout)

• He states there is a clear reverse correlation between:
  • SMH (semiconductor ETF / “hardware” proxy)
  • IGV (software ETF / “software” proxy)
• His interpretation:
  • When hardware rallies, software lags (capital flows toward AI infrastructure).
  • When semis pull back, software tends to get support.
• He argues AI is not “killing software” in the real economy:
  • Software companies are embedding AI and improving business performance over time.
• Recommendation implied:
  • He sees “golden opportunities” in software while the software sector/ETF remains under pressure.

Macro / valuation perspective (bubble comparison + rates)

• He compares the current environment to the dot-com bubble, but argues it’s not the same:
  • Today’s market is supported by healthier revenue and earnings growth, unlike the valuation excess of 1998–2000.
  • He notes some “paper”/adjustment-heavy earnings dynamics (examples mentioned: Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Anthropic investment context).
• Interest rates point:
  • He says the 10-year US rate is going up, yet the market is at all-time highs, which he frames as evidence of exceptional market strength.

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Explicit trading/portfolio framework (2H 2026)

He outlines a conditional approach:

• If the market goes down (later 2026 / starting around August):
  • Buy more software
  • Explicit examples include FICO (and he also mentions Adobe and Microsoft as software examples).
• If the market goes up:
  • He expects MSEI to “print cash,” because his position benefits from broader market strength and fee/royalty-style economics (he references S&P Global context and a “tech rate” / “index segment” from subtitles).

He also expresses a preference tilt:

• Avoid / underweight capex-heavy, capital-intensive hardware
• Prefer companies with “almost zero capex”

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What he bought / portfolio actions (with size notes)

New buy

• FICO (Fair Isaac) — recently bought
  • After the purchase, he says it became about ~6% of his portfolio
  • Rationale:
    • He believes it’s unlikely to be disrupted by AI
    • He describes the stock as cheap / “not expensive” versus historical and current metrics (no specific multiple provided)

Current/ongoing holdings and examples

• Lamb Research (LRCX) — ongoing position
  • About 2–3% of his portfolio
  • He says he has quadrupled his capital in it since buying “a few years ago”
• MEI / MSEI-related position
  • He states MEI is his second largest position
  • Benefits via royalties/fees if markets rise
• Reductions / switches
  • Reduced exposure to Google and Amazon
  • Sold Amazon completely
  • Bought Mastercard (MA) recently

Mastercard (MA)

• He frames Mastercard as a “darling” that rebounds after bottoming.
• He suggests the “bottom” occurred in March, April, and June (per subtitles).
• Win-win thesis for MA/Visa:
  • If AI becomes a bubble → payments may still benefit even if capex/hardware weakens.
  • If AI is not a bubble → he still expects continued benefit.

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Key tickers / instruments / sectors mentioned

Stocks / companies

• FICO (Fair Isaac)
• Micron (MU) (implied)
• AMD
• Lamb Research (LRCX) (company name used; ticker not explicitly stated)
• ASML (ASML Holding)
• Samsung (name only; ticker not stated)
• Mastercard (MA)
• Amazon (company name; ticker not explicitly stated)
• Google (company name; ticker not explicitly stated)
• Visa (company mentioned; ticker not stated)
• Anthropic (mentioned in the context of “adjustments/paper gains”; not treated as a ticker)

ETFs / indices / funds (explicit)

• SMH (Semiconductor ETF)
• IGV (Software ETF / “software index”)
• MSEI (mentioned; full meaning unclear in subtitles)
• XUS (developed markets index; referenced as being at all-time highs)
• S&P 500 (market benchmark)

Sectors/themes

• Semiconductors / hardware
• Software
• AI infrastructure / data center capex
• Memory bottleneck (and Korea-specific leverage risk)
• Payments (MA/Visa)

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Numbers & performance metrics explicitly cited

Speaker’s performance (claimed)

• ~25% per year for almost a decade (claim)
• 2026 YTD performance: 20.95%
• S&P 500: ~12.8% (~13%) in the same period
  • Implied outperformance: ~8 percentage points

Portfolio sizing

• FICO: ~6%
• Lamb Research: ~2–3%

Korea leverage/liquidations

• Claims >3% of Koreans got margin-called (subtitle reliability uncertain)

Other timing references

• The framework emphasizes August onward for “the last part of 2026”
• Rates backdrop: 10-year US rate rising while the market is at ATH

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Disclosures / disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” line was visible in the provided subtitles/text (based on the content shown).
• He promotes a coaching program and references his public portfolio and copy-trading/community.

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Presenters / sources

• Presenter: Kristoff Nur
  • “My name is Kristoff Nur.”
• Other presenters: none named.