Alastair Crooke: Ukraine Proxy War Enters Dangerous New Phase

Overview

Alastair Crooke argues that the Ukraine war is entering a “dangerous new phase”—not mainly because Russia is escalating from weakness, but because broader Western/European messaging and pressure are intensifying at the same time. This, he says, increases the risk of miscalculation and further destabilization.

Russia’s Situation: Stable Internally, Posture Shifting to Restraint

• Russia’s identity and diversity

  • Crooke describes a trip across Russia (including Siberia) and argues Russia is more culturally diverse and less “Moscow-centric” than Western observers assume.
  • He suggests this matters for understanding Russia’s national goals and identity.

• Domestic stability

  • He claims domestic conditions looked stable, including:
    • no widespread fuel shortages (except a localized issue)
    • predictable election results
    • limited domestic disruption
  • He notes that Russian airports operating temporarily under drone/attack conditions is presented as a routine adjustment, not a crisis.

• Lavrov’s diplomatic message

  • Crooke highlights a takeaway from Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who implied that substantive dialogue with the United States or Europe has little point because Western policy is driven more by coercion than by shared norms or values.

• Controlled “restraint” posture

  • Crooke frames Russia’s leadership tone as one of controlled restraint, intended to prevent deterioration rather than broaden conflict.
  • He invokes the idea of a defensive/deterrent posture associated with China—described as “a cathchon”—meant to prevent “destructive forces” from taking control of world events.

“Multipolarity” Reframed: Defensive Coordination, Not an Optimistic Order

Crooke argues multipolarity is increasingly about survival rather than partnership or proactive vision:

• Defensive deterrence and financial bypassing

  • He emphasizes deterrence and the attempt to bypass the U.S.-dollar financial system.

• Coercion replacing rules-based order

  • He claims the West—especially under “Trumpism,” in his framing—has substituted sanctions, threats, and pressure for common legal or moral frameworks.
  • This makes a traditional “rules-based” international order seem less plausible.

• Timing for major change

  • He predicts that large shifts in global order are unlikely until a Western financial or political crisis forces a paradigm change.

Western/European Escalation: War Rhetoric Despite Capacity Limits

Crooke strongly criticizes European political and media messaging:

• Move toward “war preparation” narratives

  • He says messaging has shifted to explicit “war” themes, such as urging citizens to stock supplies and discussing death/duty on talk shows.

• Rhetoric vs. practical readiness

  • He argues the messaging is irrational given Europe’s limited manpower, logistics, and readiness.
  • He suggests the rhetoric may be coordinated, serving purposes beyond genuine preparation.

• Linked pressures

  • He connects this to other forms of escalation, including:
    • sanctions
    • disruptions (including claims about attempts to influence Russian elections)
    • threats aimed at Russia and financial systems

• Domestic distraction hypothesis

  • He speculates elites may be diverting attention from domestic crises (energy/diesel shortages and economic strain), while also implying there may be another strategic force behind the synchronized push.

Elections Disruption and Sanctions: Evidence of a Broader Campaign

Crooke cites multiple elements to argue there is wider pressure against Russia:

• Claims about election-period attacks

  • He references claims that Ukraine fired missiles and drones around Russia’s election period.
  • He says the disruption did not significantly affect election proceedings.

• Questioning Western motives

  • He questions the rationale for Western efforts to interfere in Russian elections.
  • He interprets timing and scale as part of escalating pressure on multiple fronts, including:
    • elections
    • finance/sanctions
    • pressure targeting political leadership directly

• Sanctions momentum and UN rhetoric

  • He highlights rapid signing of major U.S. sanctions (“from hell”).
  • He notes subsequent secondary sanctions threats and intensifying UN rhetoric attacking Putin.

Ukraine’s Prospects: Setbacks Worsen, but He Doesn’t Expect Immediate NATO/Ukraine “Cracking”

Crooke argues Russia’s battlefield advantages are increasing:

• Strikes degrading infrastructure and logistics

  • He says ongoing strikes degrade:
    • energy facilities
    • rail/locomotives
    • gasoline supply chains
    • storage/warehouses
    • broader “logistics” losses
  • He references a claim (attributed to Ukrainian intelligence) that most logistics in Kharkiv region are gone.

• Economic strain

  • He points to Western bond markets “cracking,” increased desperation among leaders, and little readiness (including psychological preparation) for upcoming shocks.

• No imminent collapse expected

  • However, he does not foresee NATO or Ukraine collapsing soon.
  • He warns there could be dangerous “stupid” actions or escalation attempts by external actors if control mechanisms fail.

Iran and “Parallel Wars”

Crooke repeatedly links the war against Iran (in his framing) with escalation against Russia:

• He argues these actions appear to follow the same strategic logic.
• He questions both the moral and strategic coherence of escalation against Iran.
• He suggests that looking at the motivations behind Israeli/other policy visions helps explain why these moves may not appear rational by other standards.

Bottom Line

Crooke’s core thesis is:

The West/Europe is escalating through coercion and synchronized warlike rhetoric, while Russia remains internally stable and adopts a restrained, defensive posture to prevent uncontrolled escalation.

He believes the combined pressures—on Ukraine’s logistics and on Western economic/political systems—make another dangerous phase likely, even if a rapid NATO/Ukraine failure is not assured.

Presenters / Contributors

• Alastair Crooke (guest; former British diplomat, Middle East expert)
• Unnamed host/interviewer (welcoming viewers and asking questions on the program)