Putin’s winter campaign will hit hard – but won’t decide the war

Key Assessment

Russia should not be underestimated. Although it has struggled to make major gains on the front line, it continues to adapt its military and expand production of weapons capable of inflicting severe damage on Ukraine.

Risks for Ukrainian Civilians

The presenter argues that the coming winter could be the harshest of the war for Ukrainian civilians. Ukraine’s air defenses are under increasing strain, partly because of a shortage of Patriot missiles and the declining effectiveness of some defenses against newer Russian drones. Meanwhile, Russian drones and missiles are becoming more numerous and capable. The presenter points to faster, jet-powered drones with larger warheads and a sharp rise in Russian strikes.

Attacks on Kyiv have reportedly shifted from occasional large nighttime barrages to near-constant strikes at all hours. Attacks on bridges and other infrastructure disrupt daily life, while a new drone reportedly designed to cut power lines could threaten electricity supplies without directly hitting power plants.

Together with existing infrastructure damage, these attacks could leave cities short of power, heat, water, and sanitation. The severity of the humanitarian crisis will also depend on the weather. Europe should be prepared to support Ukraine and potentially receive more refugees.

Potential for Retaliation

The presenter does not expect winter attacks to decide the war. A humanitarian disaster is unlikely to make Ukraine surrender and could instead strengthen Ukrainians’ resolve.

Ukraine is now better positioned than in previous winters to strike back, particularly against Russian fuel supplies and possibly other essential infrastructure. Ukrainian retaliation may not match Russia’s in scale, but it could cause significant hardship in Russia.

Conclusion

The winter campaign will highlight both Russia’s continuing ability to adapt and escalate, and the danger of assuming the war is under control simply because it receives less attention in Western media.

Presenter: Anders Puck Nielsen