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Lawrence Wilkerson: Saudi Arabia & Israel Could Disappear Soon

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Overview

Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson argues that escalating Middle East crises are not isolated events, but interconnected outcomes of long-running U.S.–Saudi decision-making and the broader U.S. withdrawal from the region. He claims the Yemen conflict is being driven by highly capable Houthi fighters (described as “northern Yemeni” tribesmen) and that Saudi Arabia’s reliance on U.S. support previously helped it avoid defeat—now leaving Saudi Arabia vulnerable to collapse.

Yemen / Saudi retaliation

Wilkerson frames recent Houthi success as the result of their discipline, intelligence, teamwork, and morale, contrasting this with what he portrays as Saudi weaknesses in ground warfare.

He contends that Saudi Arabia is “paying the piper” for earlier U.S.-enabled Saudi involvement and for miscalculations by Saudi leadership, pointing to actions he attributes to Muhammad bin Salman. He describes Saudi Arabia as corrupt and near-bankrupt without U.S. backing, forecasting a possible state-level breakdown.

Forecast: Saudi Arabia could “disappear”

Wilkerson says he sees a “50/50” chance Saudi Arabia could vanish as a nation-state. He argues Saudi military capability is inadequate for sustained ground conflict against the Houthis (“the Houthis will eat them up”).

He further claims that attacks elsewhere in the region could include alleged “false flag” operations. He is “90%” sure that any reported attack on Mecca would not be genuine Houthi action, suggesting instead Israeli involvement, while leaving open other Iraqi dissenting possibilities.

Strait of Hormuz: Iran–Oman deal and reduced U.S. role

The discussion emphasizes a reported movement toward an Iran–Oman arrangement to restore traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, implying narrowed shipping lanes and “blessings” from both states for limited passage.

Wilkerson says much of outbound shipping is likely petroleum products destined for China (though he cannot confirm). He portrays U.S. statements—especially from the Trump administration—as misleading (“lying through your tea”), pointing instead to oil market and insurance indicators (such as WTI/Brent behavior and sharply increased insurance costs) as evidence that risks are worsening.

Economic / energy-security warning

He links the crisis to broader global financial and energy instability, citing:

  • rises in insurance/search charges (he says ~8% or higher would be disastrous, while costs are now ~15%)
  • indications of market disruption despite market manipulation
  • a major refinery accident (reported), which he treats as another vulnerability signal

He expands this into a warning about “network warfare,” arguing that the openness of U.S. society and infrastructure makes it vulnerable to attacks targeting food, power, water, and finance. He also criticizes how the U.S. organized homeland security, arguing its power is dissipated across agencies rather than concentrated into effective capability.

Israel’s role: opposition to Gulf/Iran arrangements

Wilkerson asserts that Israeli leaders benefit when Islamic states fracture and fight each other. He says multiple regional leaders increasingly view Israel—not Iran—as the core problem.

He argues Israel would oppose any agreement like the Hormuz traffic restoration because it might enable a broader Islamic regional consensus and a new status quo that reduces Israel’s strategic leverage.

Israel’s internal tensions and “Netanyahu” critique

Wilkerson describes Israeli politics as driven by a hardline consensus on war aims, including settlements and escalation. He cites opposition within Israel from prominent figures/analysts (via private conversations), but argues that even if Netanyahu were removed, he believes core policy would not change because he claims the broader agenda enjoys majority support among Jewish Israelis.

He also highlights what he frames as an internal Israeli fight involving investigations and lawsuits related to October 7, describing it as intensifying political and social tensions.

Nuclear escalation fears

Wilkerson’s most alarming claims focus on nuclear risk:

  • He argues Israel could be destroyed quickly by limited Iranian preemption, claiming Iran has missiles and intelligence on Israeli nuclear targets.
  • He suggests Netanyahu has repeatedly signaled willingness to use nuclear weapons if existentially threatened.
  • He then argues that if Israel used nuclear weapons, the U.S. would likely not “stop” it—portraying U.S. leaders (Trump and advisors) as tolerating or encouraging escalation rather than restraining Israel.

Attribution of broader U.S. / administration behavior

Wilkerson criticizes senior U.S. officials and information flow, arguing that:

  • key White House figures (he names Stephen Miller and John “Vought”) control messaging and filter information so dissenting intelligence never reaches Trump—or is “polluted”

He argues this produces distorted decision-making and repeated denial of reality. He ties this to historical patterns he says occurred in the Iraq era, where officials presented optimistic or false narratives while violence and instability worsened.

Bottom line optimism for a settlement—limited by three capitals

In closing, he says peace is possible only if:

  • regional states accept Iran as the true power in the Gulf and the U.S. steps back (with constraints rather than direct domination)
  • the main obstacles are not only Riyadh or other Arab capitals, but also Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Washington

He suggests a revived Hormuz-management agreement could reduce the crisis if activated, including if the U.S. ends its naval blockade and returns to the relevant understanding.

Presenters / Contributors

  • Glenn (interviewer / host)
  • Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson (guest; former Chief of Staff to the U.S. Secretary of State)

Original video