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What the Ship: Hormuz Attacks Escalate as Container Lines Return to Suez

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News and Commentary

Summary of Maritime Stories (Top 5) and Key Takeaways

1. Hormuz security crisis intensifies for commercial shipping

  • The episode highlights ongoing attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, including four attacks (Sept. 28–29) targeting three very large crude carriers: Alphontis, Merson Prosperity, and Sinbad—plus an additional tanker.
  • Attacks continued into October, including:
    • A Kuwaiti VLCC caught fire after an Oct. 1 attack.
    • Reports that tanker crews were transiting without normal lights and communication due to threats.
  • Impact: The Strait is becoming both more dangerous and more expensive to transit, driving up freight rates and war-risk costs.

2. Partial normalization elsewhere: container carriers prepare to return to Suez

  • While Hormuz remains risky, multiple alliances and operators are preparing to shift container services back toward the Suez/Red Sea route instead of the Cape of Good Hope diversion.
  • The Premier alliance (ONE, HMM, Yang Ming) is preparing to route FE1 Asia–North Europe service back through Suez, with a first sailing scheduled for Oct. 17.
  • Scale of return: Over 140 container ships (more than 2 million TEU) have returned to Suez since May.
  • Remaining constraint: Ships may still require naval escorts in the southern Red Sea, and outcomes depend on Houthi behavior (so far largely limited to Saudi-linked targets).
  • Market effects:
    • Returning capacity could relieve pressure in a period of extremely high container rates.
    • Older ships may be more likely to move to scrapping.

3. Oil flows recover—despite maritime inefficiencies

  • Despite Hormuz disruption, Gulf crude exports rebounded sharply in September to about 16.33 million barrels/day (approximately 80% of pre-war levels).
  • Saudi crude loadings resumed at Red Sea terminals after the East-West pipeline returned to service.
  • The “paradox” emphasized is that physical movement is recovering while maritime operations remain abnormal:
    • Tankers avoid riskier areas (including parts of the southern Red Sea) where possible.
    • Increased use of rerouting and ship-to-ship transfers.
    • Extra sailing time—about 22 extra days around Africa to reach Asia.
  • High costs: Reported rates for VLCCs are extremely high (e.g., ~$1.2M from the Persian Gulf and ~$800k from the Gulf of Oman to Asia).

4. Sanctions enforcement targets maritime infrastructure and “shadow” fleets

  • Russia reflagging: Lloyd’s List reports Russia has reflagged 86 shadow fleet vessels since July, driven by European pressure on questionable registries. The goal is more sanction-resistant tonnage under closer control.
  • UK sanctions on LNG-related shipping: The UK sanctioned eight vessels linked to Russian LNG exports, including three newly delivered ice-class carriers associated with Novatech.
  • Limited exemptions: The UK extended narrow exemptions for Sakhalin-2 LNG shipments to Japan and South Korea.
  • Core point: Enforcement is increasingly maritime-specific, targeting vessels and the systems that enable sanctioned energy exports, raising questions about ownership, flags, insurance, financing, and liability.

5. Somali piracy remains a threat

  • The episode reports Somali piracy activity after Putinland forces recovered the hijacked product tanker “Honor 25.”
  • Casualties: Pirates reportedly killed five crew members before maritime police secured the vessel; remaining crew were recovered.
  • Additional hijacked vessels have been recovered; only one vessel (Asana) remains under pirate control.

Overall Conclusion: What This Means for Shipping

  • Security risks are intensifying, especially around Hormuz, with more attacks beginning late September and into October.
  • Some corridors are partially stabilizing, notably container routing returning through Suez/Red Sea.
  • Rerouting is reshaping demand and costs:
    • Tanker earnings remain exceptionally high.
    • Ships are staying in service longer due to disruptions, supporting stronger container rates and delaying normal fleet turnover.
  • Sanctions are moving into maritime enforcement, targeting the vessels and enabling infrastructure rather than only individual cargos.
  • Mariners remain exposed to risk across multiple regions (Hormuz, Somalia, and broader mentions including Red Sea/Black Sea context).

Presenters / Contributors

  • Sal McGloano (host)

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