Статус. Екатерина Шульман* и Максим Курников / 20.10.26 @Ekaterina_Schulmann

Summary

Ekaterina Shulman and Maxim Kurnikov discuss Russian government personnel changes, the draft budget and related legislation, several corruption and criminal cases, and sociologist Norbert Elias’s concept of “courtly figuration.”

Government reshuffle

Shulman argues that elections in Russia, despite their formal character, can create opportunities for personnel changes. The reshuffle does not signal a major change in policy: the same economic team remains in place, and she sees no imminent shift to a more heavily militarized economic model.

Among the changes she highlights:

• Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Grigorenko is leaving his post as head of the government apparatus. Shulman emphasizes that control of the apparatus is important to the prime minister’s ability to direct the bureaucracy.
• Finance Minister Anton Siluanov is becoming a deputy prime minister, while a younger deputy finance minister is taking over the government apparatus. Shulman reads Siluanov’s promotion as a sign of trust, possibly intended to strengthen him amid difficult budget conditions.
• Former Transport Minister Andrei Nikitin is becoming a deputy prime minister, and Dmitry Yadrov, formerly head of Rosaviatsia, is taking the transport portfolio. Shulman notes the troubling circumstances surrounding their predecessors, one of whom died an unnatural death and another of whom was detained.
• Yuri Trutnev is leaving as deputy prime minister and presidential envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District; Primorsky Governor Oleg Kozhemyako is expected to replace him.

Shulman suggests that Grigorenko’s departure could also serve to limit Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s political influence. She contrasts this with what she sees as the continued strength of the Rotenberg network, arguing that its associates have emerged from recent troubles with their positions largely intact.

The discussion also touches on Sergei Kiriyenko’s return to public view and uncertainty over the future funding of the “Time of Heroes” program. Its director said that resources are available for the next year and expressed confidence it would continue, but Shulman found the explanation vague about longer-term financing.

Budget, taxes, and mobilization-related measures

The State Duma is preparing to consider the federal budget. Shulman says the planned increases in housing and utility tariffs are set by the federal budget, despite criticism of regional authorities by Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin. She also notes a new “technology fee” on phones, smartphones, and laptops due to take effect in December.

The Federation Council has recommended raising VAT from 10% to 22% on a list of premium food products, including seafood, specialty cheeses, truffles, and cured ham. Shulman also reports a proposed higher tax rate on income from large bank deposits. She characterizes these measures as part of a broader shift in fiscal pressure toward households and individuals.

Other proposals discussed include a 4% increase in military pensions from October 2026 and a new administrative offense for failing to comply with orders from regional authorities or operational headquarters. The proposed penalties vary by offender, with large companies facing fines or possible suspension of operations. Shulman interprets the measure as creating another mechanism for disciplining organizations in connection with mobilization and military needs.

She also notes that recruitment payments for military contracts have been reduced in several regions, while Lipetsk has raised its payment. In her view, such sharp regional differences may reflect varying recruitment pressures.

Corruption cases and legal developments

Shulman reviews a series of cases involving regional officials and people connected with public institutions. In Krasnodar Krai, the Prosecutor General’s Office is seeking the confiscation of property worth nearly a billion rubles from Deputy Governor Igor Galas through a civil anti-corruption claim. She says such claims can be brought separately from criminal proceedings, though criminal charges may follow. She also notes the release of another deputy governor from pretrial detention, suggesting—without presenting it as certain—that this can indicate cooperation with investigators.

The program discusses additional cases involving university administrators, research institutions, and former rectors. Shulman says the pattern of prosecutions appears especially pronounced among people handling property, construction, procurement, or other financially significant work in public and academic institutions.

She also summarizes a Supreme Court review that, in her account, reinforces confiscation as a required element in cases where the relevant criminal statute provides for it. The guidance addresses confiscating criminal proceeds and, if those proceeds have been spent, equivalent sums or other property. Shulman links the emphasis on binding Supreme Court guidance to Chairman Igor Krasnov’s stated ambition to make the court’s interpretations more authoritative for lower courts.

Finally, the program notes that Khabarovsk is ending direct mayoral elections. Shulman places this within a longer trend of weakening local self-government and says that no Russian federal subject still directly elects the mayor of its capital.

Concept: “Courtly figuration”

The program’s educational segment introduces Norbert Elias’s idea of “figuration”: the changing web of relationships and interactions among people, rather than society understood only as a set of fixed structures.

Using the court of Louis XIV at Versailles as an example, Elias described how the king drew the nobility into a competitive system of rituals, status, and proximity to the monarch. Courtiers spent resources and effort maintaining their place in this hierarchy while becoming more dependent on the king. Shulman explains that etiquette and ceremony were not merely decorative: they were instruments through which power and social position were organized.

She connects the concept to political analysis, arguing that in autocratic systems, status and office often generate wealth, while wealth alone can make a person vulnerable. She also discusses Elias’s broader work on “the civilizing process,” which traced historical change through shifts in manners, self-control, ritual, and everyday life—not only through economic change or wars.

The segment includes a brief biography: Elias was born into a Jewish family in Breslau, left Germany in 1933, and later worked in Britain. His mother died in Auschwitz. His work became widely recognized later in his life, particularly for its focus on social interaction and the history of everyday norms.

Listener questions

In response to a question about compromise in foreign policy, Shulman says compromise is not necessarily weakness; in democratic systems, it can be a safer way to reconcile competing interests. She contrasts this with autocratic decision-making, which may be faster but can produce reckless outcomes because fewer people can oppose the leader.

Asked why authorities sometimes allow activists to leave the country before arresting them, she cautions against assuming this is a standard practice. People who were warned are more visible in public accounts, while many others are arrested without warning. In some cases, warnings may come from individuals inside the system rather than reflect a deliberate policy.

On whether civil society has a “playbook” comparable to an autocrat’s, Shulman mentions Gene Sharp’s work on nonviolent resistance and suggests it can be read as a guide to recognizing political danger as well as a set of tactics. She calls strikes a particularly powerful protest tool, while noting that their effectiveness depends on whether people can organize them.

Participants and author discussed

• Presenters: Ekaterina Shulman and Maxim Kurnikov
• Author discussed: Leonid Nikitinsky, whose book on law and political systems was introduced at the start of the program