Video summary

Every Stock Michael Burry is Buying Right Now! (9 New Buys)

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Macro / Market Thesis

  • The presenter frames Michael Burry’s theme as an “AI bubble” (a .com-style bubble) risk: too much capital chasing too few AI-related stocks, which could end badly for “AI darlings.”
  • Burry’s portfolio idea is described using the “whale fall” metaphor:
    • While markets focus on AI/megacap tech (the “whale swimming up top”), overlooked, solid businesses sink and get beaten down.
    • Burry is quoted/paraphrased as describing a “mass whale fall happening away from the main spectacle.”

Core idea: ignore the spectacle, buy what gets priced like it’s dead—even when it isn’t.

Tickers / Assets / Sectors Mentioned

  • PayPal (PYPL)
  • Adobe (ADBE)
  • MercadoLibre (MELI)
  • Lululemon (LULU)
  • Zoetis (ZTS)
  • Alibaba (BABA)
  • Veeva Systems (VEEV)
  • Samsung Electronics (tangible book value rule; instrument referenced conceptually)
  • Microsoft (MSFT), MSCI, Salesforce (CRM) (with competition noted)
  • Nvidia (NVDA), Micron (MU), AMD (AMD) referenced as AI “attention grabbers”

Competition notes included:

  • PayPal competition: Apple Pay, Stripe, Block

Valuation/instrument metrics referenced broadly:

  • Free cash flow (FCF)
  • P/E, Price/FCF (P/FCF)
  • Discounted cash flow (DCF)
  • IRR
  • Tangible book value per share
  • Enterprise value
  • Net cash vs. debt

Stock-by-Stock Moves (Key Rationale + Numbers)

1) PayPal (PYPL) — “Doubled Down”

  • Performance context: down ~24% YTD.
  • Burry action: doubled down despite the decline.
  • Quote/paraphrase logic:
    • “Market has been attending PayPal’s wake for years… body has yet to show it.”
  • Reasons cited:
    • Aggressive buybacks: repurchased ~21.5% of shares.
    • Margin improvement program expected through 2026–2027.
    • Competition (Apple Pay/Stripe/Block) acknowledged, but presenter claims it may be baked into price already.
  • Presenter’s valuation stats:
    • Trading at ~7x free cash flow
    • ~$5.5B FCF last year; ~$5.2B/year average over ~5 years
    • Gross profit ~46%
  • Presenter’s recommendations/implications:
    • Wishes management used more FCF directly for buybacks given the low FCF yield.
  • “Stock analyzer” / DCF-style outputs (presenter framing):
    • Current: ~$42/share
    • Intrinsic range:
      • Low: $63–68
      • High: $140–155
      • Middle: $94–104
    • Middle-case: ~23.67% DCF IRR

2) Adobe (ADBE) — “Added More After Earnings Dip”

  • Performance context: down ~42% YTD, down >50% from all-time high.
  • Burry action: bought more at ~$199.59 after a ~7% post-earnings dip.
  • Market concern: investors fear AI will “eat Adobe’s lunch.”
  • Burry stance:
    • Called it a “clear, deep value opportunity”
    • Points to fundamentals and Firefly AI
  • Key financial/operational points:
    • Earnings: beat, raised full-year outlook; market reacted negatively to premium model + delayed price increases
    • Gross margin target/level cited around 89.4%
    • AI product note: AI revenue tripled in the last quarter (presenter adds)
  • Presenter’s valuation stats:
    • Market cap: ~$78B
    • Trading at ~7.5x free cash flow
    • FCF: ~$8B/year (last 5 years); ~$10.3B last year
    • ROIC described as ~26–36%
    • Buybacks positive (less aggressive than PayPal); shares outstanding down via buybacks
  • “Stock analyzer” outputs:
    • Current: ~$196/share
    • Middle-case intrinsic price: ~$600
    • Middle-case return: ~26% discounted cash flow return (framing)

3) MercadoLibre (MELI) — Long-Term “Discount Due to International”

  • Performance context: down ~21% YTD.
  • Burry action: added in the mid-$500 range.
  • Rationale:
    • “Clean long-term winner” trading at a discount due to international exposure
    • Less attention from US investors
    • Framed under “whale fall” (non-AI narrative ignored)
  • Note: no detailed valuation outputs were provided in the excerpt.

4) Lululemon (LULU) — “Full Position” at ~Buy Level

  • Performance context: down ~40% YTD.
  • Burry action: built a full position around ~$120/share.
  • Rationale:
    • Not a “tech/AI” story (retail athletic apparel)
    • Ignored during the AI rush: “no analyst upgrades in the past month” and little attention noted
  • Note: no detailed valuation outputs were provided in the excerpt.

5) Zoetis (ZTS) — “Fat Pitch,” But Guidance/Legal Noise

  • Performance context: not specified as a % in the subtitles excerpt.
  • Burry action: bought despite legal/fraud probe issues around 2026 guidance.
  • Rationale:
    • “Fat pitch” (Buffett-like obvious opportunity requiring patience)
    • Dividend-paying animal health business (non-AI)
  • Presenter’s valuation inputs/stats:
    • Company size: ~$32B
    • Enterprise value: ~$42B
    • Debt: essentially ~$10B
    • FCF:
      • ~$2.37B last year
      • ~$1.9B average over last 5 years
    • Profit margins:
      • ~25% (10-year)
      • ~27% (5-year)
      • ~27.8% (1-year)
    • Valuation: ~14x FCF and ~12x earnings
  • “Stock analyzer” outputs:
    • Current: ~$77/share
    • Low: $70–75
    • High: $135–145
    • Middle: $100–105
    • Middle-case return: ~12% discounted cash flow return

6) Alibaba (BABA) — Added Despite China/Geopolitical Discount

  • Burry action: owned Alibaba and added.
  • Overhangs:
    • China regulatory pressure + geopolitical concerns
  • Presenter’s valuation/financials:
    • Price: ~$107/share
    • Market cap: ~$260B
    • Enterprise value: ~$323B
    • “Debt-like” figure: ~$65B essentially in debt (as described)
    • AI spending context: ~$21B/year (framed within a 5-year profit context)
    • Capital returns described as weak: net income/FCF volatility
    • FCF: ~$11.3B, vs net income ~$15.67B
    • FCF multiple: ~12x FCF in last 5 years; ~23x in the last year
  • “Stock analyzer” outputs (conservative assumptions shown in subtitles):
    • Revenue growth scenarios: 3% / 5% / 7%
    • FCF assumptions: 15% / 18% / 21%
    • P/FCF implied: 14x / 18x / 22x
    • Desired return: 9%
    • Current: ~$107
    • Low: ~$140
    • High: ~$350
    • Middle: ~$225
    • Middle-case: ~20% IRR

7) Veeva Systems (VEEV) — “Cheap on Earnings/Sales” (Life Sciences Cloud)

  • Burry action: bought at ~$159.5.
  • Performance context: down nearly 30% YTD.
  • Rationale:
    • Valuation dropped: P/E and P/S far below historical levels
    • Market concern: Salesforce (CRM) competitive threat
    • Burry rebuttal: Salesforce threat relevant only to a small part of Veeva; overstated
  • Presenter’s valuation points:
    • Forward earnings multiple: ~17x
    • Trading below most software peers
    • “Vault CRM” adoption + expanding AI tools + growing large pharma customer base
  • Balance-sheet framing:
    • Market cap: ~$25.7B
    • Enterprise value: ~$20B
    • Interpreted as net cash (cash exceeds debt)
  • “Stock analyzer” outputs:
    • Current: ~$155
    • Low: ~$136
    • High: ~$383
    • Middle: ~$230
    • Middle-case return: ~14.5% per year

8) Samsung Electronics — “Buy When Tangible Book Value per Share Is Hit”

  • Burry action:
    • Rule flagged in a post dated June 8
    • Already bought Samsung in early 2025; made it a top-3 holding (per subtitles)
  • Rule/framework:
    • “When the stock hits tangible book value per share… you buy it. No more analysis needed.”
    • Setup frequency: appears 8 times in the past 30 years, and “each time it worked”
  • US comparable:
    • Presenter claims Burry sees a comparable situation in a US stock but does not name it (“mystery stock”).
  • Note: ticker for Samsung is not “confirmed” in the subtitles excerpt, but the instrument is clearly Samsung Electronics.

Presenter’s “Everything Money” / “Stock Analyzer” Methodology (DCF Framework)

The subtitles describe a repeatable, scenario-based valuation tool:

  • Build a 10-year analysis
  • Scenario inputs typically include:
    • Revenue growth (low/mid/high examples cited):
      • PayPal: 2/4/6%
      • Adobe: 3/6/9%
      • Alibaba: 3/5/7%
    • FCF margin (low/mid/high examples cited):
      • PayPal: 14/16/18%
      • Adobe: 37/40/43%
      • Alibaba: 15/18/21%
    • Apply a valuation multiple (P/E or P/FCF) depending on assumptions:
      • PayPal uses P/FCF: 13/17/21
      • Adobe uses P/FCF: 18/21/24
      • Veeva uses P/E: 14/17/20
      • Alibaba uses P/FCF: 14/18/22 (implied)
  • Desired return: 9%
  • Outputs:
    • Low / middle / high intrinsic price range
    • DCF IRR / return in the middle case (varies by stock)

Explicit Recommendations / Cautions / Disclaimers (As Stated)

  • “This is not a guy who buys by accident” (contextual statement).
  • “Don’t buy a stock just cuz he is or anybody on the internet talks about it.”
  • Presenter says they are not giving stock tips and viewers should not treat titles/thumbnails literally.
  • Overall framing emphasizes learning the process, not copying trades.

Key Performance Metric Callouts (Examples)

  • PayPal: ~7x FCF; ~$5.5B FCF last year; middle-case ~23.67% DCF IRR
  • Adobe: ~7.5x FCF; ~$8B avg / ~$10.3B last year; middle-case ~26% DCF return
  • Veeva: enterprise value below market cap → interpreted as net cash; middle-case ~14.5%
  • Alibaba: middle-case ~20% IRR under conservative assumptions
  • Zoetis: middle-case ~12% discounted cash flow return
  • Samsung: not quantified in the excerpt beyond the tangible book value rule and historical success frequency

Presenters / Sources

  • Referenced source: Michael Burry / Scion Asset Management (Burry’s quotes and actions)
  • Primary narrator/presenter (by subtitles): the channel host running ticker analysis via the “stock analyzer tool” / “everything money process” (name not provided in the excerpt)

Original video