Why Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Near Could Be Setting Up for a Massive Rally

Summary

John Gillen views Bitcoin’s recent pullback as consolidation within a still-bullish market structure, rather than evidence that the bull market is over. He says bulls have defended key support, while macro uncertainty—including bond yields, Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, and the US midterm elections—could keep risk assets choppy in the near term. His base case is that some of those headwinds ease and Bitcoin eventually tests higher levels.

Gillen is also bullish on NEAR. He argues that its cross-chain “intents” approach could benefit as people increasingly use AI agents to interact with financial services. He sees crypto, tokenization, and AI as potential sources of significant growth, while cautioning that NEAR’s competitive position depends on continuing to adapt.

On crypto security, Gillen considers quantum computing and AI-assisted cryptographic attacks legitimate issues to address, but does not think they warrant panic or immediate mass wallet transfers. He also argues that blockchain infrastructure could help establish rules and incentives for AI agents operating without human supervision.

Markets, Assets, and Key Numbers

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin was trading around $81,000–$83,000 during the discussion. Gillen describes it as an almost $2 trillion asset.
• Bulls reportedly defended $81,000 twice. Gillen identifies $83,000—the May high—as a key level to reclaim and hold.
• $87,000 is the cited resistance level; a break above it could open the way to a test of $90,000.
• $75,500 is the key lower boundary of the range established since August. Gillen says sustained trading below that level—roughly a week or more—would weaken his bullish view. He also mentions $78,000 as potential support.
• Gillen describes Bitcoin as near its one-year average price, with its RSI resetting and price building a base. He notes that Bitcoin has previously spent six months or more moving sideways.
• A sharp sell-off was attributed partly to liquidations in other markets and cross-margin accounts forcing crypto sales. The Korean exchange or venue name in the subtitles is unclear.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

• NEAR was trading around $5 during the discussion. Gillen acknowledges its volatility but says its consolidation had not broken down.
• Gillen recounts a Bitwise scenario in which NEAR could reach roughly $155–$160 if its market capitalization reached approximate parity with Ethereum’s at the time—about 30–40× upside. Bitwise’s more bullish case was $500. These are scenarios, not guaranteed outcomes.
• A Bitwise NEAR ETF had reportedly launched about two weeks earlier.
• Gillen says mid-cap crypto can move sharply during an early bull market, including moves of around 15% in a day or a week. He cautions investors against reacting emotionally to expected volatility.

Ethereum (ETH)

Gillen describes Ethereum’s value proposition as a credibly neutral, censorship-resistant, open, permissionless, and secure platform. He argues these properties may matter especially to institutional users focused on counterparty risk.

Ethereum is discussed as a benchmark for the NEAR market-cap scenario; no ETH price target is given.

Other Assets, Companies, and Instruments Mentioned

• Hyperliquid and Lighter: Perpetual-futures platforms cited in a discussion of potential US regulatory clarity.
• Bonds and bond yields, Federal Reserve policy, CPI, and risk assets: Macro factors that may affect crypto.
• Meta: MetaMuse, its personal AI agent, and new models are cited as examples of growing consumer use of agents.
• Adobe, Google, and OpenAI: Mentioned in discussions of competition, AI, or cryptography, not as investment recommendations.
• Gold bars: Mentioned jokingly, not as a serious portfolio recommendation.

Frameworks and Views

Bitcoin Range Analysis

Gillen’s framework distinguishes a brief wick through a level from sustained market acceptance in a new range.

• Continued defense of $81,000 would indicate near-term support.
• $83,000 is a key level to watch for confirmation of strength.
• Sustained movement below $75,500 could signal a change in market structure and make the bearish case more relevant.
• Gillen’s base case is a retest of the range top, followed by a possible break above $87,000 toward $90,000. He emphasizes that this is uncertain.

NEAR Thesis

Gillen’s thesis is that AI agents may increasingly let users state a desired outcome rather than choose a specific chain or protocol. NEAR Intents is presented as a way to route across underlying services to fulfill that intent. Gillen says the product has gained substantial usage and volume.

He describes NEAR’s perceived moat as its early positioning, product-market fit, and demonstrated ability to pivot—not as a guarantee that competitors cannot replicate its products. The thesis depends on NEAR continuing to adapt as products and market needs change.

Crypto and AI Security

Cryptographic security may face pressure as computing capabilities improve, potentially requiring stronger algorithms and updated systems over time.

As described in the show, Justin Drake’s suggested precaution is to move funds from addresses with exposed public keys to a new address, then avoid spending from that address so the public key remains unexposed.

Gillen says the risk merits attention but does not recommend panic or mass wallet shuffling at this point. He believes the issue is solvable.

Macro and Election Outlook

Upcoming catalysts cited include CPI data the following day, a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later in October, and the US midterm elections in a few weeks.

Gillen expects some macro headwinds to ease from late October into early or mid-November, potentially supporting risk assets. He acknowledges that rising bond yields or less-accommodative Federal Reserve policy could prolong choppy conditions.

His election forecast is that Republicans retain the Senate and Democrats win the House, creating divided government. He considers that outcome broadly supportive of market certainty, while noting that the races are uncertain and polling may be within the margin of error.

LG cites prediction-market probabilities of 64% for Democrats taking the Senate and 91% for Democrats taking the House. Gillen disputes the Senate odds. These are contemporaneous market readings, not settled outcomes.

Cautions and Disclosures

• Gillen repeatedly says short-term price direction and timing are uncertain; his market views are his interpretation, not predictions with certainty.
• Crypto volatility can be severe. He frames volatility as part of the risk investors take for potential performance and cautions against emotional trading.
• The show’s closing disclosure says its content is for informational purposes only, represents personal opinions, and is not financial advice. It also says presenters may own some investments discussed and advises viewers to do their own research.
• Gillen’s portfolio and specific holdings are discussed in a separate Milk Road Pro segment, not disclosed in this excerpt.

Presenters and Sources Mentioned

• Presenters: LG and John Gillen.
• Sources or people referenced: Bitwise, Ben Cowen, Justin Drake, Vitalik Buterin, Charles Hoskinson, and Matt Hougan.
• LG cites prediction-market odds, but the platforms’ names are partly unclear in the subtitles.