ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 05 - Quarterly Shifts & IPDA Data Ranges

Main Ideas / Concepts Taught

• Macro analysis framework (Lesson 1.1): The video focuses on “quarterly shifts” and using IPDA data ranges (time/data windows) to anticipate where price is likely to move next.

• Markets are not random (speaker’s belief):

  • The speaker argues markets are engineered/controlled (especially in FX), not random.
  • They claim predictability is demonstrated by repeatedly calling specific price levels “to the pip.”

• Central Bank / algorithmic control concept (EPTA):

  • A price-delivery engine (described as operating at interbank/central bank levels with “EPTA data ranges”) is said to work within predefined daily ranges, with occasional deviations.
  • The goal of the teaching is to understand those data ranges by identifying which reference highs/lows the algorithm uses.

• Quarterly Market Structure Shift (every ~3–4 months):

  • The speaker reminds viewers that market direction can change every three to four months.
  • Traders should always view price at a macro level using multiple time frames:
    • monthly → weekly → daily
  • Even within a primary uptrend/downtrend, expect intermediate-term retracements.
  • For long-term traders, the recommendation is to reduce emotion and manage positions:
    • take partial profit / reduce exposure,
    • wait for retracement,
    • then re-add to capitalize on continued movement.

• Smart money behavior as the lens:

  • The methodology tries to mimic how “smart money” allocates capital.
  • Two key program types on the daily chart:
    • Buy programs (accumulation)
    • Sell programs (distribution)
  • Each program is defined through relative manipulation of an “underlying” versus a “benchmark.”

• Underlying vs Benchmark relative signals:

  • Core logic: identify where the benchmark and the underlying form different higher/lower high/low patterns—suggesting manipulation and likely direction.
  • The underlying is what you trade (e.g., a currency pair).
  • The benchmark is used to measure/confirm manipulation (e.g., an index).

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Methodology / Instruction-Style Content

A) Plan the quarterly shift using “look back” and “cast forward”

1. Step 1: Choose the quarterly “marker” date

   • Use the previous closed calendar month as the beginning reference.
   • The marker is typically the first trading day of that most recent closed month.
   • Example: studying in January 2017 means the marker starts from December 1, 2016.

2. Step 2: Draw a vertical line at the marker

   • Place a vertical line at the marker date (first trading day of that month).

3. Step 3: Perform the “look back”

   • From that vertical line, look left using trading-day windows:
     • 60 trading days
     • 40 trading days
     • 20 trading days
   • The windows are used because the algorithm is said to “reach back” about three trading months (with variability).

4. Step 4: Identify institutional reference points inside those windows

   • Within the last 60/40/20 trading days left of the marker, search for:
     • old price highs / old price lows
     • liquidity pools resting above/below those levels
     • rejection blocks
       • “above the bodies” for sell-off setups (top/wick behavior)
       • “below the bodies” for sell-side liquidity (bottom/wick behavior)
     • references such as:
       • order blocks
       • fair value gaps
       • liquidity voids
       • (also mentioned) pool shoulder blocks

5. Step 5: Determine direction of “institutional order flow”

   • Over the look-back span (left side), decide whether institutional behavior was:
     • collectively bullish (framed via important intermediate lows and structure), or
     • collectively bearish (framed via important intermediate highs and structure)
   • The marker is then treated as “anchored” to a previous market structure shift.

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B) Do the “cast forward” to anticipate the next shift window

1. Step 6: Cast forward using the same window logic

   • From the vertical line, look right (future direction) for likely shift timing:
     • expected within 20–60 trading days
   • The exact window depends on where the last structure shift occurred:
     • If the last shift was ~40 days left → cast forward 40 days
     • If the last shift was ~20 days left → cast forward 60 days
       • described as using a 60-day common denominator

2. Step 7: Expect setups to occur within that data range

   • The model implies the market may:
     • fill a liquidity void,
     • revisit institutional reference levels,
     • and produce measurable timing/price behavior (i.e., not random).

3. Step 8: Use MT4 practical guidance (as described)

   • On MT4, draw/anchor a trendline to the vertical line and drag it to get the numeric spacing corresponding to 20/40/60 windows.

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C) Daily “smart money” confirmation via Buy Programs / Sell Programs

• Trade focus time frame: The approach emphasizes the daily chart (nothing less than daily for the described program-condition checks).

Buy Programs (Accumulation)

• The speaker presents configurations based on Benchmark vs Underlying making higher/lower highs/lows.

• Key examples (as stated):

  • Benchmark lower low & Underlying higher low → bullish accumulation expectation

  • Underlying lower low & Benchmark lower high (inverse correlated example) → underlying going under an old low to scoop sell-side liquidity → “turtle soup long”

  • Benchmark higher high & Underlying higher low → relative strength in the underlying → “turtle soup cell” (mentioned in this context)

  • Benchmark lower low & Underlying lower high → described as complex; includes “sell stops below an old low” liquidity-sweep logic (underlying weakness vs benchmark behavior)

Sell Programs (Distribution)

• Again using Benchmark vs Underlying higher/lower high/low combinations.

• Key examples (as stated):

  • Benchmark higher high & Underlying lower high → cell program (heavy distribution) expectation

  • Underlying higher high & Benchmark lower low → underlying reaching for liquidity while benchmark fails expected lows → distribution logic

  • Benchmark lower low & Underlying higher low → continuation lower expectations are discussed, with emphasis on liquidity-sweep mechanics (inverse strength/weakness logic depending on which is “underlying”)

  • Additional example scenarios are provided using currency pairs vs index behavior.

Note: The speaker’s wording in several places is confusing/overlapping; the repeated structural idea is “relative manipulation signals” using underlying vs benchmark higher/lower highs/lows.

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What the Quarterly Shift Is Supposed to Achieve

• Create a repeatable macro structure for the next 3–4 months.
• Provide:
  • where liquidity is likely resting (from the look-back)
  • when the next revisit/setup timing is most probable (from the cast forward)
• Reduce “randomness thinking” by using:
  • identifiable market structure breaks
  • predictable institutional reference points
  • measured time windows (20/40/60 trading days)

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Homework / Practice Instructions Included

• The speaker assigns a self-practice task:
  • Go through your own charts and repeat the look back + cast forward exercise.
  • Example prompt: if analysis starts in July 2016, do the same mapping.
• They also warn viewers:
  • Don’t email questions immediately.
  • Wait for the month’s content to clarify.

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Speakers / Sources Featured

• Speaker: The primary instructor (one individual; not named in the subtitles).
• Video source: “ICT Mentorship” (series title referenced), with no other named external speakers or institutions.
• Tools mentioned (as concepts/tools, not additional speakers):
  • MT4 (MetaTrader 4)
  • Central Bank (as a concept/source of control)
  • interbank price delivery engine (EPTA)