Commodity & Gold Ratios | Market Cycles Report June 29 2026

Finance-focused summary (Commodity-to-gold ratios & cycle signals)

Core theme

• The presenter analyzes commodity-to-gold ratios to infer macro/industry demand cycles, using cyclical analysis applied to commodity index data.
• Ratios are expressed in gold (i.e., commodity ÷ gold) rather than in raw USD terms, to maintain global neutrality.
• Ratios discussed (all “to gold”):
  • Copper / Gold (“Dr. Copper”)
  • Industrial Metals / Gold (a metals basket)
  • Oil / Gold
  • Cotton / Gold

Data / instrumentation mentioned

• Data source: “subsets of the Bloomberg Commodity Indices” (used via a “cycle analyzer” tool).
• Method framing:
  • Commodity futures/commodity index constructs are used, then divided by gold (not based on USD commodity price levels).

Key market observations (explicit conclusions)

• All four commodity-to-gold ratios are at “multi-year lows.”
  • Interpretation: the entire commodity basket appears to be building bottoms relative to gold.
• Ambiguous alignment right now:
  • The presenter explicitly says:
    • “no signal when everything is aligned”
    • “today there is a rather ambiguous situation.”

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Cycle methodology / framework (as described)

• Cycle analysis is applied to the ratio series (commodity ÷ gold).
• The approach looks for dominant cycle lengths visible in the spectrum (frequency analysis).
• Key emphasis:
  • Cycles are used to identify timing of trend changes, not exact price levels.
  • Avoid overconfidence when the ratio is out of sync with the dominant cycle.
• Cotton-specific selection framework:
  • Candidate cycles are picked from the spectrum using:
    • Strength (relative magnitude; higher is better)
    • Stability (lower variability is better)
  • Stability threshold:
    • < 0.5 = too unstable for forecasting models
    • > 0.5 = potentially usable
  • Historical fit claim: approximately ~80–90% match on past bottoms/tops behavior.

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By ratio / asset

1) Copper-to-gold (Dr. Copper / Gold)

• Cycle characteristics (weekly data):
  • Dominant cycle around ~200 weeks.
  • Spectrum shows one “highest potency” cycle with high stability.
• Current situation & caution:
  • While the dominant cycle has generally worked well over the last 10–15 years,
  • Over the last ~1.5 years, the ratio has been out of sync:
    • The model suggests upward movement, but it has not occurred.
  • Recommendation/caution:
    • Do not jump to conclusions based only on the dominant cycle right now.
    • The recent decline may be less useful for prediction until alignment improves.

2) Industrial metals-to-gold (basket / Gold)

• Constituent idea (via Bloomberg industrial metals index):
  • Includes metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, and other base metals (a broader basket than copper alone).
• Demand-macro link stated:
  • Metals demand → economic growth expectations (construction/industrial usage).
• Cycle structure noted:
  • Multi-year low in the ratio.
  • Two prominent cycles:
    • ~193 weeks (close to 200-week cycle)
    • ~270 weeks*
  • Stability/strength notes:
    • ~200-week-type cycle: described as very high stability
    • ~270-week cycle: weaker strength/stability
• Timing call:
  • The basket is entering a secondary downturn, with impact into summer 2027.
• Macro implication:
  • If the industrial metals ratio trends down (demand slowdown / price weakness), it becomes a headwind for the economy.
  • Specifically framed as: slowing demand until at least 2027.

3) Oil-to-gold (Oil / Gold)

• Multi-year low similar to other ratios.
• Cycle emphasis:
  • Spectrum highlights a ~270-week cycle (similar to the industrial metals analysis).
• Timeline implication:
  • From the dominant ~270-week cycle perspective, the presenter expects a positive period for oil relative to gold in 2028.
• Important caveat about the “spike”:
  • The presenter warns not to treat an observed oil move as purely cyclical.
  • It’s described as more like a “war shock” (wartime oil price shock).
• Macro caution signal:
  • Industrial metals decline into ~2027 suggests weakening demand.
  • Oil production costs may rise → supply-cost pressure.
  • The combination is framed as:
    • “slowing demand by increasing supply costs” → a very cautious warning for the economy.
  • Clarification: cycles are used to read data and interpret macro conditions cautiously, not to directly forecast the economy.

4) Cotton-to-gold (Cotton / Gold)

• Positioning:
  • Cotton is framed as a later-stage indicator, more tied to consumer perspective than purely industrial/construction demand.
• Current status:
  • Cotton-to-gold ratio is again at a multi-year low.
  • References a prior episode for a long-term cotton cycle, but this episode focuses on weekly/short-term cycles.
• Candidate cycles from spectrum (weekly short-term):
  • Standout cycles:
    • 138 weeks
    • 74 weeks
  • Strength/stability notes:
    • Both are candidates, with strength among the highest.
    • Reiterates stability threshold: cycles should have stability > 0.5 to be usable.
• Historical match claim:
  • ~80–90% of past bottom/top conditions match observed behavior.
• Near-term directional takeaway:
  • Notes “growing momentum” in cotton-to-gold.
  • Mentions that from a consumer perspective, this could imply a more positive rhythm, while still keeping today’s discussion more about perspective than a definitive macro call.

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Cross-asset takeaway / recommendation style

• Bottom line: the presenter says signals across these four commodity-to-gold ratios are not fully aligned.
• Most consistent macro takeaway:
  • Slowdown in metals/industrial demand is a headwind for the economy.
• Energy (oil) framing:
  • Oil could face conditions consistent with rising pressure (in the narrative), even as demand caution remains—creating a mixed macro backdrop.
• How the tool is framed:
  • Cycles are not portrayed as direct predictors; the analyst builds the model.
  • The tool is used to highlight cycle candidates based on strength/stability, with final use described as discretionary.

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Disclosures / disclaimers

• No explicit “financial advice” disclaimer is present in the subtitles.
• The presenter states the work is about reading data and not making a direct economy forecast (e.g., “I’m not here to make a forecast for the US economy”).

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Tickers / instruments / assets mentioned

Commodities / ratios

• Copper (“Dr. Copper”) vs Gold
• Industrial metals basket vs Gold (Bloomberg basket referenced)
  • Includes copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, and other base metals
• Oil vs Gold
• Cotton vs Gold

Indices / data source

• Bloomberg Commodity Indices (industrial metals basket and related subsets referenced)

(No specific equity tickers, ETF tickers, bond tickers, or crypto tickers mentioned.)

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Presenters / sources

• Presenter: Lars Fontinan (also appears as “Las Fontaines” in subtitles; context indicates the same person)
• Data source: Bloomberg Commodity Indices (and related Bloomberg commodity index subsets)