Economic Report: Home Sellers PANIC | Mortgage Rate SHOCK

Finance-focused summary (markets, mortgages, housing)

Macro / Rates / Markets

• Job openings & labor turnover (JOLTS, April, “two months in a rears”)

  • Expected: ~6.8M
  • Actual: 7,618,000
    • Reported as “best since May of ’24”
    • Described as “two years”
  • Vacancy rate
    • Expected: 4.2%
    • Actual: 4.6%
    • Noted as highest since 4.7% in May ’24

• Yield curve / “210 spread” (10-year minus 2-year)

  • Spread described as 41 bps
  • Characterized as the flattest curve in ~14 months
  • Rationale given:
    • Short end reflecting the Fed keeping rates “high”
    • Long end “following oil”
  • 10-year Treasury level cited: 3.94% (day before the Middle East conflict)
  • Commentary suggests 10-year could revisit ~3.94% if conditions change (“when conflict’s over” / “charts say it’s possible”)

• Oil and inflation impulse

  • Oil: around $91–$92/barrel
  • Gas prices
    • Regular: $4.22/gal
    • Premium: $5.10/gal
  • “Hurts” consumer budgets via higher transportation costs

• Equity index performance (5-day week snapshots)

  • Dow: ~+1.06% over 5 days (best among the indexes in the segment)
  • S&P: described as “down,” with commentary indicating it’s “well under 7,600”
  • Overall: “almost all assets down”; overall -0.56% cited
  • Nasdaq: -1.65% over 5 days

• VIX

  • Highlighted as elevated, implying heightened trading activity from volatility (day-traders/scalpers)

Commodities / Crypto performance (recent drawdowns)

• Gold

  • 5-day: -2.86%
  • 1-month: -6%
  • 3-month: -14.3%

• Silver

  • 5-day: -5.85%
  • 1-month: -11% to -12%
  • 3-month: -16%
  • Framed as a buying range / hedge for physical holders (speaker stacks monthly; not planning to sell)

• Bitcoin

  • Price cited: ~$62,096 (above $61,000)
  • 5-day: -15.4%
  • 1-month: -22%
  • 3-month: -8.86% (“lost their three-month yield” per commentary)
  • 1-year: -40% (speaker misspoke “50/40%” but lands on ~40% down)

Federal deficit / inflation narrative

• Fiscal deficit described as “almost a trillion dollars” this year (approaching ~$1T)
• Framing: this spending is positioned as helping prevent deeper market breakdown, and the speaker argues it contributes to persistent inflation

---

Mortgage update (rates and pricing mechanics)

Key rate transmission point

• 10-year Treasury / longer-end yields drive residential mortgage rates (speaker’s perspective)
• After the jobs report, the 10-year yield shot up by ~6 basis points, expected to translate into higher mortgage rates

QE / MBS purchasing context

• Mortgage rates are influenced by:
  • Treasury yields
  • Fed/Fannie/Freddie MBS purchases (“quantitative easing”), which artificially lower rates
• Speaker claims unwinding is not going well, implying ongoing upward pressure

Mortgage rate levels & product differences (explicit citations)

• Conventional
  • Referenced as “upper left” with PMI eventually dropping for typical borrowers (depends on equity/credit)
• FHA
  • Explicitly cited as ~6.11% (lower than conventional shown as ~6.58%)
  • FHA mortgage insurance (MIP) lasts for the entire life of the loan unless:
    • 10% down, in which case it may go away after 11 years

Pricing vs “headline rate” (recommendation/caution)

• Mortgages move via pricing/cost, not just the headline rate
• Example:
  • A lower credit score borrower may pay LLPA (loan-level pricing adjustment), potentially +$1,500 in extra cost for a similar-looking rate
  • Contrast: “good credit” can get a rate at par/zero price, while lower credit can’t
• Implication: daily rate changes can still mean higher closing costs even if the “rate number” looks similar

Demand signals: refinancing behavior (warning)

• Refinancing demand (blue line):
  • Previously crashing down
  • Began rising when rates were ~6.3–6.2
• Speaker’s caution:
  • Borrowers refinancing around those levels are “likely” doing cash-out refinancing
  • This can “reset amortization” and be described as trapping borrowers in higher overall debt if terms aren’t improved (especially without shortening the term)

---

Housing market update (listings, delistings, and pricing)

Sellers delisting / “panic”

From a referenced Redfin segment:

• 5.8% of home listings were pulled off the market in April
• +3.8% vs March (delistings)
• Tied with December for highest share of delisted homes since March 2020
• Drivers listed:
  • Higher mortgage rates
  • Elevated gas prices
  • Weaker consumer confidence
  • Cooling prices due to rising inventory and sellers losing leverage
  • Homes sitting longer than normal for spring
• City examples:
  • Atlanta: ~1 in 10 delisted
  • San Jose: ~9% pulled
  • Also mentioned (no exact %s in excerpt): Los Angeles, Dallas, Seattle

New listings confusion (Redfin methodology callout)

• Speaker notes:
  • “Headline” said new listings down ~1.3%
  • But other screen/data implied up ~0.7%
• Speaker conclusion: uncertainty about the weekly number and potential mismatch in Redfin reporting/data presentation

Delisting vs relisting

• Caveat:
  • Some sellers delisted and later relisted at ~2.5%, described as the highest since 2020

---

Step-by-step framework taught: finding deals (MLS filtering by price per square foot)

Speaker presents an informal process for narrowing MLS listings:

• Start with broad MLS count (example shown in Katie):
  • ~2,254 homes for sale
• Filter by price per square foot to find under-market deals:
  • Target ~$80–$100/sq ft
  • Goal: increase likelihood of “wedge” deals (under market / distressed-value situations)
• After filtering, example count drops sharply:
  • ~2,200 → 10 listings
• Screen those few listings for:
  • Condition / photos (possible foreclosures or poor shape)
  • Property taxes for over/under assessment
  • Run payment estimates (speaker uses his own calculator)

Explicit deal/purchase example (payment math)

• Example property:
  • Price: $400,000
  • Days on market: 126 days
  • Price per square foot: ~$98.40/sq ft
• Tax assessment context:
  • Taxes shown as based on about $405,000 assessed value
  • Speaker claims it’s over-assessed by ~15,000
  • Annual property taxes used: $10,862
• Mortgage calculator assumptions:
  • Down payment: 5% minimum
  • Interest rate: ~6.52%
  • Home insurance: ~1% of home value, adjusted to $3,500
  • PMI: assumes ~0.55 (speaker uses it as a parameter)
  • Excludes HOA and maintenance for simplicity
• Output:
  • Monthly payment: $3,779
  • Total over 30 years: ~$1.3 million
  • Speaker emphasizes tax drag as a major contributor

---

Additional financial strategy: amortization “front-loaded interest” lesson

Speaker provides a concrete amortization framework:

• Example assumptions:
  • 30-year fixed
  • Interest rate: 6.58%
  • Loan amount: $400,000
• Key insights:
  • Interest exceeds principal early in the loan
  • Total paid back: ~$917,000 over 30 years

Principal prepayment strategies

• Lump sum

  • Pay $25,000 toward principal after some time
  • New principal target: ~$374k
  • Claimed results:
    • Save ~5 years
    • Save ~$125,000 in interest

• Extra monthly payment

  • Pay +$400/month
  • Claimed results:
    • Turns 30-year → ~20-year
    • Save ~10 years
    • Save ~$183,000 in interest

Framing

• Extra principal uses the borrower’s own funds (“$400 is your money”)
• Speaker notes it may not be permanently “locked in” if the borrower can’t continue, depending on setup

---

Disclosures / disclaimers

• No formal “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles
• Mortgage compliance note:
  • Speaker says he is not quoting other people’s payments and references he cannot quote payments by law; however, he runs his own example

---

Presenters / sources mentioned (end)

• David (host/speaker referenced as “David”)
• Trevor (listener/super chat)
• Mitch (co-host/mentioned)
• Matt (greeting)
• Brian Kelly (called out as “back to you” during macro/rates segment)
• Diana Ol (reporter in the home seller/Redfin segment)
• Redfin (source for delisting statistics and listing shares)
• Mortgage News Daily (source cited for mortgage rates touching the “5% range” end of February)
• Nobody’s Special Finance (named as another finance channel)
• Melody Wright (named; Substack)
• Mockingbird Properties (Mitch’s website mentioned)