WARNING: The Gold Selloff is getting Worse

Market/Asset Calls & Key Drivers (Finance/Macro)

Gold (Precious Metals)

• Gold is described as “absolutely tanking”, with a downward trend for most of 2026 (lower highs/lower lows).
• Technical levels (from a 4-hour chart):
  • Gold broke below ~$4,60/oz (subtitle formatting appears to omit digits; context suggests mid-$4000s).
  • Potential downside tests:
    • $4,000 (round-number support)
    • $3,980 (subtitle references “39.80… prior low,” implying $3,980 as a prior-low marker)
• Tactical stance:
  • No open position in gold; neutral/ready.
  • Could turn more bearish if inflation readings rise, especially around CPI.
• Macro rationale:
  • Geopolitical escalation (Middle East / US–Iran headlines) could lift inflation expectations.
  • Higher yields / potential rate hikes would be a headwind for gold.

US Dollar (Macro + Rates Linkage)

• USD is described as trending higher and holding support around 100.6.
• Potential rebound target:
  • 101.8, but explicitly dependent on CPI.

Interest Rates / Yields

• Signals suggest more rate hikes this year, with yields rising.
• Implication:
  • Higher yields support the dollar and make gold relatively less attractive (opportunity cost vs cash/money-market yields).

Stocks (Risk-on vs Rate-Sensitive Rotation)

• Broad equities:
  • S&P 500 is near/just below ATH, described as resilient despite tech weakness.
• Rotation/sector behavior:
  • Tech/semis down while defensives/other sectors hold up.
  • Noted sector/ETF references:
    • XLE (Energy ETF) holding up
    • Real estate and utilities holding up
    • Financials holding up
    • Consumer staples and Healthcare roughly flat
• Magnitude/risk note:
  • A larger stock correction remains possible, especially if CPI is hot or geopolitics worsens.
• Trader framework mentioned:
  • Buy-the-retest / buy-the-cooler-CPI setups only if data confirms.

South Korea / Tech Pressure

• South Korea described as down ~9% on the day.
• ETF mentioned:
  • EWY (South Korea ETF) — “down significantly.”
• Risk rationale:
  • Tech-heavy, levered bets (including semiconductors/AI) are vulnerable to higher interest rates and potential unwind.

Silver

• Silver is down >3% and threatening to break annual lows.
• Critical levels:
  • Below 57; subtitle suggests ~56 as the “lowest point” marker (wording inconsistent, but key idea is a potential break in the mid/high-50s range).
• Sellers remain dominant.

Oil

• Oil up about 4%–4.4% on the day.
• Oil is highlighted as a “chart to watch” because geopolitics could re-ignite rate/inflation fears.
• Scenario targets (two ranges/levels cited):
  • Retest zones around 108 and 116
• Narrative:
  • Geopolitical escalation can move oil quickly (comparison made to “pre-war levels” after failed ceasefire expectations).

Bitcoin (Risk Asset)

• Bitcoin described as sideways / only slightly down, holding up better than expected.
• Trend assessment:
  • Still bearish: rejected near the 200-day moving average and lacks meaningful upside follow-through.

FX / Currency Framework

• Uses an economic surprise index (latest data vs expectations).
• Currencies mentioned:
  • Stronger: CAD, Swiss franc, Japanese yen
  • Weaker: AUD, South African rand, Turkish lira
• Possible trade idea:
  • AUD vs CAD breakout (conditional on macro bias from EdgeFinder, though the speaker says they “don’t particularly love” the chart).
• EUR/USD:
  • Rangebound; watch whether USD bulls hold/fail at key levels.
  • Geopolitics could drive EUR/USD to take out lows, after which he’d consider fading rallies.
• GBP/USD:
  • Multi-week high near 1.3450, followed by sharp rejection.
  • Watch for continuation of the downtrend; also noted as rangebound overall.
• USD/JPY and yen crosses:
  • Dollar yen returning toward highs.
  • Yen weakness in pairs like Kiwi yen and Aussie yen.

Semiconductors / ETFs

• Individual names mentioned:
  • SanDisk
  • Micron (both under pressure)
• ETF mentioned:
  • SMH (Semiconductor ETF) — pulled back sharply.
• Watch levels:
  • 100-day and 200-day moving averages as potential long-entry risk/reward areas (conditional).

Magnificent 7

• ETF mentioned:
  • MAGS (Magnificent 7 ETF)
• Thematic thesis:
  • “Memory race” and competition for profit share could lead to lower prices for memory/semiconductors, potentially helping some big-tech earnings.

---

Methodology / Frameworks Used (Step-by-Step / Process)

Technical + Macro Fundamental Approach

• Uses charts (notably 4-hour and daily) to identify trend regime (lower highs/lows).
• Maps explicit levels:
  • breaks, supports/prior lows, and moving averages.

EdgeFinder System (Decision Gating)

• Scans:
  • Technical
  • Sentiment
  • Fundamental macro data
• Uses an aggregate score (around “plus zero”), implying:
  • Avoid aggressive positions until the score flips more decisively.
• Score sensitivity:
  • CPI
  • PPI (producer price index)

Economic Surprise Index for FX

• Compares latest fundamental data vs expectations per currency.
• Forms directional bias (strongers/weakers), then waits for confirmation—e.g., alignment with EdgeFinder.

---

Key Events / Timeline to Watch

• “Tomorrow’s critical CPI release”: expected to impact gold, the dollar, yields, and decision scores.
• This week’s PPI: could also flip bias/risk.
• Ongoing:
  • “Rest of this week” for potential fresh gold bearish setups if inflation prints hot.

---

Explicit Recommendations / Stance

Gold

• No current gold position; remain neutral.
• Risk caution:
  • Being long gold is described as “very risky” while the lower-high/lower-low trend persists.
• Potential downside if:
  • CPI supports rate-hike expectations / inflation re-accelerates.

S&P 500 / Trading

• If CPI cools and earnings are decent:
  • potential for buy-the-retest / long setups “up and over” key levels.
• If earnings disappoint or geopolitics worsens:
  • possibility of a larger stock correction.

Semis (SMH)

• Interested in longs if price retests 100/200-day moving averages (risk/reward framed positively, but conditional).

Bitcoin

• “Nothing to do” while the bearish trend persists.
• Consider longs only if:
  • inflation cools and a “Goldilock scenario” emerges.

---

Disclosures / Disclaimers

• “This is not financial advice. Trading is high risk. Please be careful.”
• Speaker states they have no open position in gold (in recent weeks).

---

Tickers / Instruments Mentioned

• Gold (spot metal; no specific ticker given)
• Silver (no specific ticker given)
• ETFs / indices
  • EWY (South Korea ETF)
  • XLE (Energy Select Sector ETF)
  • SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF)
  • MAGS (Magnificent 7 ETF)
• Semiconductor / company names
  • Micron
  • SanDisk
• Mega-cap / company names (mentioned in an earnings context)
  • Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google, Nvidia, Micron (repeated in the earnings list)
• Crypto
  • Bitcoin
• Currencies / FX pairs
  • EUR/USD, GBP/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • AUD/JPY (via “Aussie yen”)
  • NZD/JPY (via “Kiwi yen”)
  • AUD/CAD (trade idea)
• Oil (no ticker given; referenced by price levels)

---

Noted Numbers (As Stated)

• Gold
  • Break level: around ~$4,60/oz (format likely missing a digit; context: mid-$4000s)
  • Targets: $4,000 and $3,980
  • Reference to prior “critical” $4,200 level
• US Dollar
  • Support: 100.6
  • Resistance/target: 101.8
• GBP/USD
  • Multi-week high near 1.3450
• Oil
  • Up ~4% to 4.4% on the day
  • Retest zones: 108 and 116
• Silver
  • Down >3%
  • Break levels: below 57 / around 56
• South Korea
  • Down ~9%
• Bitcoin
  • Rejected near the 200-day moving average (no exact price level provided)
• Tech / semis
  • Watching 100-day and 200-day moving averages (SMH)

---

Presenters / Sources

• Presenter/Speaker: Nick (channel name not explicitly provided in subtitles)
• Media/source cited: CNN (ceasefire disintegrates / US pounds Iran headline mentioned)