Почему Путин лжет @The_Breakfast_Show

Summary

Political commentator Abbas Gallyamov argues that Putin’s defining political trait is presenting setbacks as successes and saying things that do not reflect reality. He attributes this partly to the habits of intelligence work, Soviet-era pressure to conform, and the criminal networks of 1990s St. Petersburg. In Gallyamov’s account, Putin’s worldview divides people into a trusted inner circle and an outside world that can be deceived or exploited.

Putin, Trump, and the war in Ukraine

Gallyamov cautions against assuming that Putin has recruited or controls the U.S. president. He says Putin may handle Trump skillfully, but the results have not consistently favored Russia: U.S. assistance to Ukraine, including intelligence and other support, has largely continued, aside from a temporary interruption.

Gallyamov says Putin missed a particularly favorable opportunity to negotiate in spring 2025, after Trump’s confrontation with Zelensky. Since then, he argues, Russia’s costs have risen without a comparable increase in what it could secure in a deal. He cites military casualties, damage to oil-refining capacity, worsening finances and investment prospects, and cuts or delays to public services. Even captured territory, he says, brings additional costs. He also notes that ending the war would require the government to manage returning soldiers and set new goals for society.

Gallyamov believes Putin is now waiting for circumstances to improve, such as battlefield gains, political change in Europe, or higher energy prices. He describes the Iran conflict as a possible short-term boost for Russian oil revenues but warns that it could carry serious strategic risks, including a change of government in Iran and a deterioration of Russia’s position. He also suggests the conflict could damage Trump and the Republicans politically.

Political pressure on Trump

Gallyamov argues that Trump’s ability to make concessions to Putin is weakening. He points to congressional scrutiny of Russian diesel imports, questions over the handling of funds approved for Ukraine, and disputes around Starlink as examples of growing political and legal pressure. If Democrats gain control of one or both chambers of Congress, he says, they could substantially constrain Trump’s policies.

Russian domestic politics

Gallyamov says the disappearance of pro-war “Z” symbols from many cars is less important in itself than as a sign of changing public sentiment. He argues that the Kremlin tracks opinion closely and continues to fund propaganda and security forces despite budget pressures, while also tightening restrictions on online communication.

In his view, the government’s public indifference to discontent is a deliberate tactic: it can discourage opposition when people believe protest will achieve nothing.

Rumors about Rotenberg

The discussion also addresses rumors about business figure Rotenberg. Gallyamov says he cannot confirm reports that Rotenberg fell out of favor after distancing himself from the war effort. He offers competing possibilities: the Kremlin may have objected to an apparent lack of support from someone who benefited financially from wartime conditions, or the events may reflect the Rotenberg circle’s reported willingness to turn against business partners.

Gallyamov says Putin’s inner circle is unlikely to unite against him unless a major crisis makes the situation feel close to collapse.

Promotional segment

A brief promotional segment urges Russians to use VPNs to access information outside Kremlin-controlled narratives. It argues that broader access to independent information could help prepare the public for a post-Putin future.

Presenters and contributors

• Grigory German — host
• Abbas Gallyamov — guest political commentator